UEFA Europa League: Most Assists Prediction May 21

The UEFA Europa League assist race heading into the final stages of the 2025-26 competition is one of the most compelling individual battles in European football right now. Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest carries a 47% implied probability of finishing as the tournament’s top assist provider. That means the market gives every other contender on the board a combined 53% chance of ending the season with more assists than the Brazilian forward.

This market runs through May 21, 2026, with the Europa League final as the endpoint for all counting stats. Igor Jesus enters at 47% probability versus a crowded field of 21 other candidates sitting collectively at 53%. Total market volume stands at $1,236, reflecting a live, low-liquidity contest where a single late-round performance can flip the leaderboard overnight.

How the Igor Jesus vs. The Field Matchup Resolves

Winning this market means Igor Jesus finishes the 2025-26 Europa League with more assists than any other single player in the competition. The market prices him as a slim favorite, but the current assist leaderboard tells a complicated story. Deniz Undav of Stuttgart leads all players with six assists. Ricardo Horta of Braga and Andrija Živković of PAOK each sit at five. Igor Jesus has been a dominant scorer in the tournament, leading in shots on target with 14, but his assist numbers have not yet matched his goals production.

• Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest): 47% probability, favored in this market
• Deniz Undav (Stuttgart): Among the field alternatives challenging for the top spot
• Ricardo Horta (Braga): Active assist threat with five recorded this tournament
• Andrija Živković (PAOK): Five assists, deep in the running
• Bryan Zaragoza (Roma): Four assists, still alive depending on Roma’s run

The underdog path here belongs to any player in the field who advances deep into the knockout rounds. A midfielder or winger on a finalist squad could rack up two or three assists in semifinal and final play. That scenario would leapfrog Jesus if he does not add to his current assist tally through Nottingham Forest’s remaining matches.

Market Signals and Form

The momentum composite on this market shows flat price movement combined with a trend score of 1.24, signaling a stable market with no recent catalyst pushing money toward or away from Igor Jesus. The market has not repriced in the last 24 hours, which suggests traders are waiting for knockout-round results before repositioning. Liquidity sits at $20 with no recorded 24-hour volume, which means conviction is low and a single notable assist performance could shift the price sharply.

The thin order book depth of $20 is the defining structural feature of this market right now. Small trades carry outsized influence on price. A Forest match where Jesus sets up a goal could push his probability meaningfully higher. The flip side works the same way for Undav or Horta if Stuttgart or Braga continue their runs.

Related Europa League markets are trading in a similar range, with the tournament winner market at 49% and the top scorer market at 87%, providing useful context on how bettors are weighting individual statistical outcomes versus team outcomes in this competition.

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Igor Jesus Lines Analysis

The case for Igor Jesus centers on his overall dominance in this Europa League campaign. He has been Nottingham Forest’s most dangerous attacking player and leads the tournament in shots on target. Players who generate that volume of offensive action tend to accumulate assists alongside goals as defenses collapse and teammates benefit from drawn defenders. If Forest reaches the final, Jesus will have two more high-profile matches to add to his assist total.

The case against Jesus rests entirely on the current numbers. Deniz Undav already has six assists. Jesus would need to both add assists and hope Undav, Horta, and Živković plateau in the knockout rounds. Stuttgart, Braga, and PAOK all have their own paths through the bracket. If any of those teams goes on a deep run, their creative players will have more opportunities to extend their leads.

• Watch Nottingham Forest’s knockout draw: Tougher opponents mean tighter matches and fewer open assist opportunities
• Monitor Deniz Undav assist updates: He holds a two-assist lead over the closest pack and is the primary threat to this market
• Ricardo Horta and Živković parity: Both sit at five assists, one behind Undav, and either could surge with strong semifinal play
• Igor Jesus goal vs. assist split: His value has shown up in finishing, not playmaking, which raises legitimate questions about his assist ceiling
• Remaining matches count: Semifinals and final provide a maximum of two more games, capping the statistical upside for everyone

At $1,236 total volume, this market reflects genuine uncertainty. The 47% price on Igor Jesus is defensible given his tournament prominence, but the actual assist leaderboard does not yet support him as a clear frontrunner in this specific category.

LINES VERDICT

The Field

Deniz Undav leads by a clear margin and multiple players sit between him and Igor Jesus on the assist chart. The market price on Jesus does not match where the stats currently stand.