Novig
UEFA Champions League Most Assists: Michael Olise April 8

UEFA Champions League Most Assists: Michael Olise April 8

SS Steve Silverman Sport Expert
Market Resolved
Embed this market
Resolution Verdict
MICHAEL OLISE Market Resolved

Market has ended. Final implied probability: 100%.

Resolved
Volume
$118.4K
$19.3K in 24h
Liquidity
$1.4M
Deep liquidity
7-Day Move
+10.5%
Sustained buying
Time Left
Ended
Resolves May 31
118K Vol. Ended
Vinícius Júnior $12K Vol.
100%
Michael Olise $67K Vol.
0%
Arda Güler $2K Vol.
0%
Dominik Szoboszlai $182 Vol.
0%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia $18K Vol.
0%
Kenan Yildiz $409 Vol.
0%

Michael Olise is the current market favorite to lead the UEFA Champions League in assists, sitting at a 44% implied probability. That number has climbed sharply from a 30-day low, jumping 8.5% on April 8 alone. When a market makes that kind of run, traders are reacting to something real.

Olise competes against a loaded field that includes Lamine Yamal, Vinícius Júnior, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and nine other candidates. The Champions League wraps up on May 31, 2026. Olise holds 44% while the collective field sits at 56%. This market is wide open.

How the Michael Olise Assists Market Resolves

This is an outright award market, not a head-to-head matchup. Olise wins this contract if he finishes the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League with more assists than any other player in the competition. One more assist than the runner-up is all it takes.

  • Michael Olise (Bayern Munich): 44% implied probability, market favorite
  • Lamine Yamal (Barcelona): Key alternative candidate
  • Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid): Key alternative candidate
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG): Key alternative candidate
  • Antoine Griezmann, Dominik Szoboszlai, Arda Güler: Listed alternatives with lower probability
  • Trossard, Rashford, Reijnders, Yildiz, Forbs, Vanaken: All priced below Olise

The underdog path runs through bracket depth. Any player whose club exits early loses games and loses chances. Olise wins by staying on the pitch deep into May.

Market Signals and Form

The momentum behind Olise is gaining real speed. Combining the 24-hour move of plus 7.0% with the April 8 spike, the composite signal points clearly higher. That kind of acceleration usually means new information is landing: a standout performance, an injury to a rival, or a team advancing further than expected.

Total market volume sits at $50,798 with $1,463 traded in the last 24 hours and liquidity at $4,142. Trader sentiment still leans bearish at 56% NO versus 44% YES. Spread and totals lines are secondary data strips available in the market UI.

Sponsored Partner
ROLRROLR

Lines Analysis: Olise as the Market Leader

The case for Olise starts with domestic form. He finished the 2024-25 Bundesliga season as the top assist provider in the league with 15 assists. Bayern Munich runs an attack-first system that generates high volumes of chances. Olise operating inside that structure, with Bayern deep in the Champions League bracket, is a dangerous combination for every rival on this list.

The case against Olise is real. Yamal and Vinícius Júnior operate for clubs with serious Champions League pedigree. Barcelona and Real Madrid consistently reach the final stages. Kvaratskhelia has shown creative burst at PSG. The 56% NO probability reflects that crowded field risk directly.

  • Olise’s assist rate in knockout matches: The key performance indicator to track
  • Bayern Munich’s remaining UCL schedule: Deeper runs mean more Olise appearances
  • Yamal and Vinícius assist totals: Any surge from either narrows Olise’s market lead
  • Injury risk across all candidates: One setback reshuffles the entire board
  • Price trajectory toward 50 cents: Crossing majority signals a sentiment shift

The $50,798 in total volume confirms genuine market depth and trader engagement. Olise’s price has climbed from 27 cents to 44 cents over the past month. The market is telling a story about a player trending in the right direction at the right moment in the Champions League calendar.

LINES VERDICT

Michael Olise

Olise has the assist-generating profile and the team infrastructure to win this market outright. The market has priced that belief in with conviction over the past 30 days.

Frequently Asked Questions

Michael Olise of Bayern Munich holds the top spot at 44% implied probability. The market has moved sharply in his favor, rising from a low of 27% over the past 30 days.

This is an outright award market. Spread lines in the UI reflect secondary wagering options. The primary question is whether Olise leads all UCL players in assists by season end on May 31, 2026.

The resolution date is May 31, 2026, aligned with the end of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League season. All candidates remain active until the final whistle of the final match.

Totals lines are a secondary data strip in the market UI. The core question is whether Olise finishes with more assists than any other player in the 2025-26 Champions League.

This market is available on Polymarket. Total volume stands at $50,798 with active liquidity of $4,142 available in the order book.

We aggregate the live positions of the top 50 Polymarket whales (ranked by 30-day tracked volume) into one composite reading per market. It refreshes every hour. The percentage shows how many of those whales hold YES versus NO; the net dollar position shows the cohort's directional exposure in dollars.

A convergence event fires when three or more tracked wallets buy the same outcome on the same market within a four-hour window. We surface these in the activity feed and the VIP digest.

No. Lines is an editorial and data product. We do not operate prediction markets, custody funds, or accept trades. All trade flows deep-link to Polymarket via our affiliate code. Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations.

Market Resolved Outcome: YES
Final Price 100%
Settled May 31, 2026
Duration 96 days

Resolution Analysis

Olise Runs Away With It

Bayern Munich advances to the Champions League semifinals and final. Olise replicates his Bundesliga creative output on the European stage, piling up assists in knockout matches. The 44% price moves past 60 cents as rivals struggle to keep pace with his chance-creation volume.

The Field Closes In

Lamine Yamal or Vinícius Júnior goes on a multi-match assist tear in the knockout rounds. Barcelona or Real Madrid's deep run floods the leaderboard with a different name at the top. Olise's price retreats toward earlier lows as market confidence shifts away.

Dark Horse Takes the Crown

A candidate currently priced as a long shot, such as Arda Güler or Dominik Szoboszlai, breaks out with a standout semifinal performance. The assists title goes to a player the market underpriced all season. Olise finishes second despite strong personal form throughout.

Injury Scrambles the Board

A key injury to Olise, Yamal, or Vinícius Júnior before the semifinals reshuffles the entire market within hours. The assists title belongs to whichever elite creator stays healthy the longest. Prediction markets reprice fast when a frontrunner exits the competition early.

Key macro factor: Bayern Munich's UEFA Champions League bracket position and depth of run is the single biggest external variable controlling Olise's assist ceiling in this market.

Market Timeline

Feb 20, 2026
Market Created
Feb 23, 2026, 4:40 PM
Event Start
Feb 23, 2026, 4:43 PM
Market Opened
May 31, 2026
Market Resolution

Market Comments

Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. This content is for informational purposes only.