How is the Smart Money Index calculated?

We aggregate the live positions of the top 50 Polymarket whales (ranked by 30-day tracked volume) into one composite reading per market. It refreshes every hour. The percentage shows how many of those whales hold YES versus NO; the net dollar position shows the cohort's directional exposure in dollars.

What is a convergence signal?

A convergence event fires when three or more tracked wallets buy the same outcome on the same market within a four-hour window. We surface these in the activity feed and the VIP digest.

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Prediction Page

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SS Steve Silverman Sport Expert

Market Resolved

Published April 5, 2026 1 min read

Resolution Verdict

YES (THUNDER COVER -20.5) Market Resolved

Market has ended. Final implied probability: 100%.

Resolved

Real Money Odds Book

Spread

Jazz -37.5

Thunder +37.5

Total

Over O 248.5

Under U 248.5

Largest Trade

$472,171

Feveey

voted with: Spread -24.5 · THUNDER

Apr 5, 2026 at 10:08pm

Most Recent

$28,139

theeere206 voted Spread -22.5 · THUNDER Apr 6, 2026

Trader	Rank	Amount	Position	Volume	PnL	ROI	Time
theeere206	#2,423	$28,139	Spread -22.5 THUNDER	$12.0K	+$338	+2.8%	Apr 6, 2026
mudman88	-	$26,798	THUNDER	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
BABELCONSTEL	#2,680	$77,147	THUNDER	$0	+$262	-	Apr 6, 2026
BABELCONSTEL	#2,680	$25,716	THUNDER	$0	+$262	-	Apr 6, 2026
surfandturf	#1,520,314	$45,001	THUNDER	$32.9M	-$156.9K	-0.5%	Apr 5, 2026
05143	#1,705	$108,415	O/U 239.5 OVER	$130.8K	+$633	+0.5%	Apr 5, 2026
0x4924...3782	-	$52,461	O/U 238.5 OVER	$497.7K	-	-	Apr 5, 2026
0x4924...3782	-	$101,279	O/U 238.5 OVER	$497.7K	-	-	Apr 5, 2026
0x4924...3782	-	$106,309	O/U 239.5 OVER	$497.7K	-	-	Apr 5, 2026
0x4924...3782	-	$424,802	Spread -24.5 THUNDER	$497.7K	-	-	Apr 5, 2026

What the smart money is doing

The top 50 Polymarket whales lean YES +0 points on this market. 0% of the cohort holds YES; 0% holds NO. Net dollar position favors YES.

Final Price 100%

Settled Apr 5, 2026

Duration 6 days

Resolution Analysis

Thunder Bench Delivers

Oklahoma City's depth players, tested all season on the league's best team, execute efficiently against a 21-57 Jazz squad. Sensabaugh and Ace Bailey fail to find rhythm. OKC wins by 26-plus, YES resolves comfortably, and the market closes near certainty.

Jazz Exploit a Hollow Roster

Utah plays loose against a Thunder rotation missing its five best players. Brice Sensabaugh drops 20-plus. Kyle Filipowski controls the glass. The Jazz lose by 14, NO cashes, and the market collapses from 57 percent to zero.

Ace Bailey's Breakthrough Night

Rookie Ace Bailey, the 2025 fifth overall pick averaging 13.6 points per game, torches OKC's makeshift defense for a career performance. Kyle Filipowski adds double-digit rebounds. Utah covers the spread, and Bailey's breakout game changes how the NBA views the Jazz's rebuild.

Late Lineup Shock

A scratched Thunder player is upgraded to available and plays meaningful minutes, or a Jazz starter exits with an injury in the first quarter. Either scenario shifts this market by 10-plus cents within minutes. With nine OKC players already out, no lineup assumption is safe before tip-off.

Key macro factor: Oklahoma City's 61-16 record is the strongest in the NBA, but nine players out simultaneously makes this the most roster-depleted game of their season.

Market Timeline

Mar 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

Market Created

Mar 30, 2026, 2:03 PM

Event Start

Mar 30, 2026, 2:06 PM

Market Opened

Apr 5, 2026

Market Resolution

Market Comments

Whale activity on this market

Biggest trades lifetime

Feveey Spread -24.5 · THUNDER

$472K at 50¢ 4 months ago
0x492442 Spread -24.5 · THUNDER

$425K at 52¢ 4 months ago
vbv19 THUNDER

$175K at 98¢ 4 months ago
llllllllllllllllllllllllllll THUNDER

$134K at 97¢ 4 months ago
05143 O/U 239.5 · OVER

$108K at 52¢ 4 months ago
0x492442 O/U 239.5 · OVER

$106K at 52¢ 4 months ago

See all whale activity

Disclaimer

Probabilities are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. Smart Money Index aggregates positions from the top Polymarket whales by 30-day volume. Lines is not a market operator and does not custody funds. Outbound links may be affiliate links.