How is the Smart Money Index calculated?

We aggregate the live positions of the top 50 Polymarket whales (ranked by 30-day tracked volume) into one composite reading per market. It refreshes every hour. The percentage shows how many of those whales hold YES versus NO; the net dollar position shows the cohort's directional exposure in dollars.

What is a convergence signal?

A convergence event fires when three or more tracked wallets buy the same outcome on the same market within a four-hour window. We surface these in the activity feed and the VIP digest.

Is Lines a market operator?

No. Lines is an editorial and data product. We do not operate prediction markets, custody funds, or accept trades. All trade flows deep-link to Polymarket via our affiliate code. Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations.

Prediction Page

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SS Steve Silverman Sport Expert

Market Resolved

Published April 5, 2026 1 min read

Resolution Verdict

ORLANDO MAGIC WIN Market Resolved

Market has ended. Final implied probability: 100%.

Resolved

Real Money Odds Book

Spread

Magic -6.5

Pelicans +6.5

Total

Over O 237.5

Under U 237.5

Largest Trade

$246,497

S-Works (+$0)

voted with: PELICANS

Apr 6, 2026 at 12:27am

Most Recent

$43,478

goodmateng voted MAGIC Apr 6, 2026

Trader	Rank	Amount	Position	Volume	PnL	ROI	Time
goodmateng	-	$43,478	MAGIC	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
SolMoe	-	$78,743	MAGIC	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
0x2a2c...9bc1	#1,638,180	$72,445	MAGIC	$0	-$75.9K	-	Apr 6, 2026
goodmateng	-	$43,478	MAGIC	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
0x5d9b...a5eb	-	$65,610	MAGIC	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
bubulalala	-	$69,736	PELICANS	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
0x5d9b...a5eb	-	$91,538	MAGIC	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
0x2a2c...9bc1	#1,638,180	$98,920	PELICANS	$0	-$75.9K	-	Apr 6, 2026
S-Works	#666,406	$246,497	PELICANS	$2.5M	+$0	+0.0%	Apr 6, 2026
Wannac	#1,587,046	$55,462	MAGIC	$2.4M	-$22	0.0%	Apr 5, 2026

What the smart money is doing

The top 50 Polymarket whales lean YES +0 points on this market. 0% of the cohort holds YES; 0% holds NO. Net dollar position favors YES.

Final Price 100%

Settled Apr 5, 2026

Duration 6 days

Resolution Analysis

Orlando Locks Up the Seed

Trey Murphy III is ruled out before tipoff, shrinking New Orleans' perimeter scoring. Paolo Banchero dominates the glass and exceeds his 23.5-point prop line. The Magic's defense holds Zion Williamson under 22.5 points, and Orlando wins comfortably, pushing market probability well above 75%.

Zion Makes It Uncomfortable

Zion Williamson is fully healthy and exceeds his 22.5-point line with ease. Dejounte Murray controls pace and clears his 6.5-assist prop. Orlando's limited rotation depth shows late, the Magic's lead evaporates, and market probability for an Orlando win dips below 60% by the fourth quarter.

Pelicans Make the Market Sweat

Desmond Bane exceeds his 21.5-point prop and Murphy plays through the injury. New Orleans' home crowd energizes a Pelicans group with nothing to lose. Orlando struggles to match the Pelicans' pace on the road, and New Orleans closes out a home win that validates their 32.5% market share.

Late Scratch Rewrites the Market

A surprise game-time decision surfaces for one of Orlando's two listed injured players within the hour before tipoff. If Banchero or Wagner is scratched late, the Magic's 67.5% probability collapses rapidly. That kind of late injury news can shift a prediction market ten points in minutes.

Key macro factor: Orlando's playoff seeding race adds urgency a 25-53 Pelicans team cannot match on motivation alone.

Market Timeline

Mar 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

Market Created

Mar 30, 2026, 2:03 PM

Event Start

Mar 30, 2026, 2:06 PM

Market Opened

Apr 5, 2026

Market Resolution

Market Comments

Whale activity on this market

Biggest trades lifetime

S-Works PELICANS

$246K at 54¢ 4 months ago
0x2a2c53 PELICANS

$99K at 64¢ 4 months ago
0x5d9bec MAGIC

$92K at 36¢ 4 months ago
SolMoe MAGIC

$79K at 100¢ 4 months ago
0x2a2c53 MAGIC

$72K at 100¢ 4 months ago
bubulalala PELICANS

$7K at 64¢ 4 months ago

See all whale activity

Disclaimer

Probabilities are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. Smart Money Index aggregates positions from the top Polymarket whales by 30-day volume. Lines is not a market operator and does not custody funds. Outbound links may be affiliate links.