How is the Smart Money Index calculated?

We aggregate the live positions of the top 50 Polymarket whales (ranked by 30-day tracked volume) into one composite reading per market. It refreshes every hour. The percentage shows how many of those whales hold YES versus NO; the net dollar position shows the cohort's directional exposure in dollars.

What is a convergence signal?

A convergence event fires when three or more tracked wallets buy the same outcome on the same market within a four-hour window. We surface these in the activity feed and the VIP digest.

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No. Lines is an editorial and data product. We do not operate prediction markets, custody funds, or accept trades. All trade flows deep-link to Polymarket via our affiliate code. Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations.

Prediction Page

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SS Steve Silverman Sport Expert

Market Resolved

Published April 5, 2026 1 min read

Resolution Verdict

LAKERS WIN Market Resolved

Market has ended. Final implied probability: 100%.

Resolved

Real Money Odds Book

Spread

Lakers -4.5

Mavericks +4.5

Total

Over O 261.5

Under U 261.5

Largest Trade

$186,019

0x8a6c...0b3f

voted with: LAKERS

Apr 5, 2026 at 10:52pm

Most Recent

$41,099

thewhiteeagle voted MAVERICKS Apr 6, 2026

Trader	Rank	Amount	Position	Volume	PnL	ROI	Time
thewhiteeagle	-	$41,099	MAVERICKS	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
hurrican	-	$28,384	MAVERICKS	$177.8K	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
shouxufei001	-	$29,629	MAVERICKS	$183.9K	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
Kluivert9	#454	$39,724	MAVERICKS	$164.0K	+$5.0K	+3.1%	Apr 6, 2026
0x94c5...56a7	-	$92,274	MAVERICKS	$0	-	-	Apr 5, 2026
gatorr	#1,786	$96,958	MAVERICKS	$0	+$363	-	Apr 5, 2026
0x8a6c...0b3f	-	$186,019	LAKERS	$0	-	-	Apr 5, 2026
RJW1	#621	$60,830	LAKERS	$96.6K	+$2.6K	+2.7%	Apr 5, 2026

Resolution Analysis

LeBron Controls the Paint, Dallas Can't Rotate

Without Irving and Lively anchoring Dallas's defense, the Lakers attack the paint at will. LeBron James exploits mismatches, Austin Reaves hits from the perimeter, and Los Angeles builds a double-digit lead by the third quarter. The YES price pushes toward 65% as the game develops.

Lakers Shoot Cold, Dallas Keeps It Close

Los Angeles averages 11.9 made threes per game but has shown the ability to go cold. If the Lakers offense stalls and Reaves struggles, Dallas's 113.6-point-per-game offense stays competitive. A tight game late makes the 53.5% probability feel generous, and the NO side gains ground in the final minutes.

Flagg Erupts, Questionable Players Suit Up

Cooper Flagg is three days removed from a 51-point game. If Washington, Marshall, and Thompson all clear their injury designations and Flagg sustains his peak form, Dallas can match Los Angeles offensively. The Mavericks win by exploiting a Lakers backcourt missing Marcus Smart's defensive presence.

Late Scratch Reshapes the Entire Market

This game carries more volatility than the 53.5% probability suggests because of how many players are listed as questionable for Dallas. A single late roster update confirming three or four Mavericks starters out would reprice YES toward 65% instantly. Conversely, a surprise LeBron James availability change would crater the YES price near 40%.

Key macro factor: The NBA's 2025-26 Western Conference playoff race means the Lakers are playing for seeding, giving Los Angeles extra incentive in a game Dallas has little reason to prioritize over development minutes for Flagg.

Market Timeline

Mar 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

Market Created

Mar 30, 2026, 2:02 PM

Event Start

Mar 30, 2026, 2:06 PM

Market Opened

Apr 5, 2026

Market Resolution

Market Comments

Whale activity on this market

Biggest trades lifetime

0x8a6c68 LAKERS

$186K at 53¢ 4 months ago
gatorr MAVERICKS

$97K at 48¢ 4 months ago
0x94c54c MAVERICKS

$92K at 49¢ 4 months ago
RJW1 LAKERS

$61K at 55¢ 4 months ago
thewhiteeagle MAVERICKS

$41K at 100¢ 4 months ago
Kluivert9 MAVERICKS

$4K at 77¢ 4 months ago

See all whale activity

Disclaimer

Probabilities are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. Smart Money Index aggregates positions from the top Polymarket whales by 30-day volume. Lines is not a market operator and does not custody funds. Outbound links may be affiliate links.