How is the Smart Money Index calculated?

We aggregate the live positions of the top 50 Polymarket whales (ranked by 30-day tracked volume) into one composite reading per market. It refreshes every hour. The percentage shows how many of those whales hold YES versus NO; the net dollar position shows the cohort's directional exposure in dollars.

What is a convergence signal?

A convergence event fires when three or more tracked wallets buy the same outcome on the same market within a four-hour window. We surface these in the activity feed and the VIP digest.

Is Lines a market operator?

No. Lines is an editorial and data product. We do not operate prediction markets, custody funds, or accept trades. All trade flows deep-link to Polymarket via our affiliate code. Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations.

Prediction Page

View on Polymarket →

SS Steve Silverman Sport Expert

Market Resolved

Published April 5, 2026 1 min read

Resolution Verdict

YES (TIMBERWOLVES COVER -1.5 AT HALFTIME) Market Resolved

Market has ended. Final implied probability: 100%.

Resolved

Real Money Odds Book

Spread

Hornets -18.5

Timberwolves +18.5

Total

Over O 230.5

Under U 230.5

Largest Trade

$397,497

beachboy4 (+$0)

voted with: Spread -3.5 · HORNETS

Apr 5, 2026 at 10:41pm

Most Recent

$45,657

0x8a6c...0b3f voted Spread -3.5 · HORNETS Apr 6, 2026

Trader	Rank	Amount	Position	Volume	PnL	ROI	Time
0x8a6c...0b3f	-	$45,657	Spread -3.5 HORNETS	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
0x8a6c...0b3f	-	$46,542	Spread -4.5 HORNETS	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
0x8a6c...0b3f	-	$157,905	HORNETS	$0	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
Countrysid	-	$31,050	O/U 228.5 OVER	$29.0K	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
Countrysid	-	$67,878	O/U 228.5 OVER	$29.0K	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
-JB-	#4,156	$43,573	Spread -4.5 HORNETS	$172.6K	+$122	+0.1%	Apr 6, 2026
winner877	-	$59,778	HORNETS	$637.2K	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
rwo	#1,342	$57,104	HORNETS	$731.4K	+$990	+0.1%	Apr 6, 2026
Countrysid	-	$38,988	HORNETS	$29.0K	-	-	Apr 6, 2026
winner877	-	$34,224	HORNETS	$637.2K	-	-	Apr 6, 2026

Resolution Analysis

Edwards Sets the Tone Early

Anthony Edwards scores 10 or more points in the first quarter, pushing Minnesota to an immediate double-digit cushion. Rudy Gobert dominates the glass, shutting down Charlotte's second-chance offense. The Timberwolves build a comfortable halftime lead, and the YES probability climbs well above 70% in live trading.

Ball Neutralizes the Home Edge

LaMelo Ball orchestrates a fast-paced Charlotte first half, attacking Minnesota's drop coverage and generating easy baskets for Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges. The Hornets keep the deficit within one point at the break, invalidating the spread and sending the NO side sharply higher before halftime.

Hornets Steal the First Half

Charlotte opens with a run off Ball turnovers and transition baskets. The Hornets' playoff desperation fuels a focused road start. Minnesota struggles to contain Charlotte's pace in the first two quarters, allowing the Hornets to cover the 1.5-point spread and flip the market.

Gobert or Ball Picks Up Early Foul Trouble

Rudy Gobert lands in foul trouble before halftime, forcing Minnesota to play smaller lineups and opening the paint for Charlotte. Alternatively, LaMelo Ball picks up two quick fouls and sits, gutting the Hornets' offense. Either scenario dramatically reprices both sides before the second quarter ends.

Key macro factor: Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning in the final weeks of the 2025-26 NBA regular season, raising the stakes and likely suppressing passive starts on both sides.

Market Timeline

Mar 30, 2026, 2:00 PM

Market Created

Mar 30, 2026, 2:03 PM

Event Start

Mar 30, 2026, 2:06 PM

Market Opened

Apr 5, 2026

Market Resolution

Market Comments

Whale activity on this market

Biggest trades lifetime

beachboy4 Spread -3.5 · HORNETS

$397K at 56¢ 4 months ago
0x8a6c68 HORNETS

$158K at 100¢ 4 months ago
0x0c154c TIMBERWOLV

$119K at 38¢ 4 months ago
beachboy4 Spread -3.5 · HORNETS

$94K at 56¢ 4 months ago
beachboy4 Spread -3.5 · HORNETS

$84K at 56¢ 4 months ago
0x8a6c68 HORNETS

$8K at 62¢ 4 months ago

See all whale activity

Disclaimer

Probabilities are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. Smart Money Index aggregates positions from the top Polymarket whales by 30-day volume. Lines is not a market operator and does not custody funds. Outbound links may be affiliate links.