Kawhi Leonard All-NBA Second Team Prediction May 23

Kawhi Leonard entered the 2025-26 NBA season with questions about his durability. He answered them with the best shooting season of his career. The market now prices Leonard at 67.5% to land on the All-NBA Second Team, though a sharp momentum drop signals something worth watching.

Leonard competes in the NBA’s 2025-26 All-NBA voting cycle, which closes June 30, 2026. The market has traded 67.5% YES and 32.5% NO across $2,498 in total volume. Bettors have been bullish on Leonard for most of the window, but recent price action tells a more complicated story.

How the All-NBA Second Team Market Resolves

This market resolves YES if Leonard earns an official All-NBA Second Team selection from the NBA’s media panel. That means he must outpoll enough players at his position to secure one of the five spots. A First Team nod would not count here. Only a Second Team placement locks in a YES resolution.

• Kawhi Leonard (YES): 67.5% implied probability, priced at $0.68
• Field (NO): 32.5% implied probability, priced at $0.33

The NO side carries real weight given the depth of this ballot. Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, and Luka Doncic all have strong cases for Second Team consideration. The road to YES runs through a crowded field of elite wing and guard talent.

Market Signals and Form

Momentum on this market turned sharply negative. Leonard’s YES price dropped 28% over both the last hour and the last 24 hours, a rare synchronized retreat that points to a specific catalyst rather than general drift. The trend score of 63.64 still reflects a market that leans YES overall, but the sudden sell pressure demands attention.

Liquidity sits at $9,015 against just $373 in 24-hour volume. That gap between order book depth and recent activity suggests the market has been relatively quiet. A thin trading environment amplifies price swings, which may explain some of the dramatic move without necessarily signaling a full sentiment reversal.

No spread or totals lines apply to this award market. The related NBA Champion market trades at 42%, providing broader context on league-wide futures activity.

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The Kawhi Leonard All-NBA Case

Leonard’s 2025-26 campaign produced a career-high 62.9 true shooting percentage in his age-34 season. He shot 50.5% from the field, 38.7% from three, and 89.2% from the free-throw line. Those numbers gave him a stronger efficiency argument than at any prior point in a career that already includes three First Team selections and two championships.

The NO side leans on depth of field and the volatile price drop. Cunningham anchored Detroit’s wire-to-wire run as the East’s top seed. Brunson posted 26.0 points per game across 74 games for New York. Brown shouldered the highest usage role of his career in Boston. Any one of them could push Leonard off the Second Team ballot.

Signals to Monitor:

• Official NBA announcement: All-NBA teams typically release in late May or early June. A Leonard selection locks in YES immediately.
• Voter eligibility: Doncic and Cunningham received extraordinary circumstance waivers. Both remain eligible and compete directly for Second Team slots.
• Price recovery or continuation: A bounce from the 28% drop confirms noise. Continued selling below $0.60 suggests informed traders see a specific risk.
• Wing competition density: Leonard, Brown, and Doncic compete at overlapping forward-guard positions. Voter position flexibility determines how many coexist on the ballot.
• First Team confirmation: SGA, Jokic, and Wembanyama locking three First Team spots clarifies how much room remains on the Second Team.

The broader market at $2,498 in total volume is small for an NBA award question. Low volume means individual trades carry outsized price influence. A handful of informed sellers could have driven the 28% drop without reflecting true consensus among all participants.

LINES VERDICT

Kawhi Leonard

Leonard’s historic efficiency season and status as the toughest First Team cut make him the strongest candidate. The sharp price drop warrants caution, but the underlying basketball case holds firm.

Who is favored to make the All-NBA Second Team in this market?

Kawhi Leonard is the market favorite at 67.5% implied probability, priced at $0.68 YES. His career-best 62.9 true shooting percentage drives the bullish case.

What does the NO side represent in this award market?

The NO side at 32.5% reflects ballot depth. Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, and Jaylen Brown all have credible cases to claim a Second Team slot ahead of Leonard.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by June 30, 2026. The NBA typically announces All-NBA teams in late May or early June following the regular season.

Is there an over/under total in this market?

No totals line applies here. This is a binary award market. Leonard either earns a Second Team selection or he does not.

Where can I trade this market?

This market is available on Polymarket. The current order book shows $9,015 in liquidity and $2,498 in total trading volume across the life of the market.