Reds vs. Cardinals Result: Cincinnati Wins 4-2

The Cincinnati Reds beat the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 on July 24, 2026, at Busch Stadium, settling the Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction market at 100 percent. Rhett Lowder led the charge for Cincinnati, posting a quality start against a Cardinals lineup that squandered eight runners in scoring position.

Polymarket closed Cincinnati at roughly 50 percent before the game, a near coin-flip that the Reds flipped decisively in their favor. The result confirmed the bullish late-session trading that pushed the Reds' probability to 100 percent by final out.

Game Stats

• Players
• Team

Batters	AB	HR	RBI	H
S.Stewart 1B	396	21	76	100
S.Steer LF	340	16	40	81
E.De La Cruz SS	338	18	47	94
J.Bleday LF	273	17	44	64
E.Suárez 3B	271	14	39	56
M.McLain 2B	268	8	25	51
T.Stephenson C	250	8	28	61
N.Lowe 1B	223	12	33	57
T.Friedl CF	199	3	11	34
N.Marte RF	145	6	13	28
E.Arroyo 2B	123	0	4	30
J.Trevino C	78	3	10	20
I.Johnson 2B	5	0	0	0

Starting pitcher	IP	ER	K	BB
R.Lowder SP	77	48	65	37

Pitchers	IP	ER	K	BB
A.Abbott SP	117	50	94	54
C.Burns SP	107	29	124	39
B.Singer SP	103	52	88	32
R.Lowder SP	77	48	65	37
N.Lodolo SP	62	32	50	27
B.Burke RP	50	15	43	29
S.Moll RP	41	20	46	23
T.Antone RP	32	8	28	8
P.Johnson RP	30	17	26	13
C.Petty SP	27	13	13	7
C.Ferguson RP	21	9	20	10
E.Pagán RP	20	12	21	8
J.Garcia SP	15	5	16	7
J.Trevino C	5	8	1	1
E.Suárez 3B	0	0	0	0
T.Stephenson C	0	0	0	0
N.Lowe 1B	0	0	0	0
J.Bleday LF	0	0	0	0
E.De La Cruz SS	0	0	0	0
E.Arroyo 2B	0	0	0	0
S.Steer LF	0	0	0	0
S.Stewart 1B	0	0	0	0
N.Marte RF	0	0	0	0
M.McLain 2B	0	0	0	0
T.Friedl CF	0	0	0	0
I.Johnson 2B	0	0	0	0

full roster

Batters	AB	HR	RBI	H
A.Burleson 1B	401	15	71	116
J.Walker RF	398	22	77	114
J.Wetherholt 2B	392	15	40	99
I.Herrera C	385	12	44	94
M.Winn SS	349	4	42	83
N.Church LF	262	8	30	59
J.Fermín LF	178	4	21	45
P.Pagés C	150	4	11	31
L.Nootbaar LF	133	3	15	32
B.Jordan 3B	105	1	22	25
J.Crooks C	77	3	9	14
B.Torres LF	75	4	11	16
N.Velázquez RF	67	4	12	14

Starting pitcher	IP	ER	K	BB
D.May SP	104	53	103	33

Pitchers	IP	ER	K	BB
M.McGreevy SP	114	39	74	27
A.Pallante SP	112	47	83	32
D.May SP	104	53	103	33
K.Leahy SP	101	40	88	34
M.Liberatore SP	99	57	95	38
G.Graceffo RP	51	18	32	24
J.Bruihl RP	49	21	34	20
G.Soriano RP	46	18	43	16
J.Romero RP	43	16	43	16
M.Svanson RP	42	34	40	21
R.O'Brien RP	41	17	44	17
R.Fernandez RP	13	4	20	7
M.Rajcic SP	9	5	8	6
B.Torres LF	2	0	0	1
I.Herrera C	0	0	0	0
J.Walker RF	0	0	0	0
M.Winn SS	0	0	0	0
B.Jordan 3B	0	0	0	0
L.Nootbaar LF	0	0	0	0
A.Burleson 1B	0	0	0	0
J.Crooks C	0	0	0	0
N.Church LF	0	0	0	0
J.Wetherholt 2B	0	0	0	0
N.Velázquez RF	0	0	0	0
J.Fermín LF	0	0	0	0
P.Pagés C	0	0	0	0

full roster

CIN

STL

0

At Bats

0

0

Runs

0

0

Hits

0

0

Walks

0

0

Strikeouts

0

0.308

On Base Percentage

0.316

0.397

Slugging Percentage

0.382

4.56

Earned Run Average

4.14

0

Earned Runs

0

0

Home Runs

0

0

Walks

0

0

Strikeouts

0

0

Strikeouts Per 9 Innings

0

1.42

Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched

1.33

Sponsored Partner

What Happened: Reds vs. Cardinals July 24, 2026

Cincinnati Reds starter Rhett Lowder controlled the game from the jump, racking up 11 strikeouts against 18 batters faced in his outing. The Reds scored four runs while holding the Cardinals to two, making good on a road trip finale at Busch Stadium. St. Louis went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position, and Cincinnati went 2-for-11 in the same spots, with Tyler Stephenson delivering a key hit for the visitors.

The Cardinals' bullpen leaned on Samuel Pagan, Jakob Burke, and Jake Ferguson, but Cincinnati's offense managed to put four runs on the board in regulation. St. Louis could not solve the Reds' pitching staff when it mattered, stranding runners throughout the game. Cincinnati reliever Tejay Antone shut the door with four strikeouts across his appearance, and the Reds held the 4-2 lead through nine innings.

Cincinnati entered the contest at 47-54 on the season, while St. Louis stood at 52-50. The Cardinals remained in contention in the NL Central race, and the Reds picked up a road win that their struggling record rarely shows.

How the Market Called It: Closing Probability and Accuracy

Polymarket opened this market at an even 50 percent for each team, reflecting a genuine toss-up between two familiar division rivals. The market closed with the Cincinnati Reds at 100 percent, meaning all capital had moved to the Reds side by the time the final out landed. That closing read correctly favored Cincinnati, though the market spent most of the day split before a sharp late move resolved it.

The 24-hour price swing of plus-29 percent tells the story: traders who bought the Reds before the final surge locked in at a meaningful discount to settlement. Over $1.18 million in volume moved in the 24 hours surrounding the result, making this one of the more actively traded single-game markets of the week. The lifetime volume of $1.19 million reflects how much capital stood behind the final read.

Where the Big Money Landed

Large trades in the seven-day window totaled $382,514, with buy-side capital of $304,715 dominating against $77,799 on the sell side. The single largest position came from wallet 0x3dfb…abaf, which placed $109,649 on the Reds at 45 cents per share. That position finished essentially flat on paper but settled on the winning side of the market.

Trader Sassy-Bucket placed two bullish positions totaling $142,065, buying at 46 cents and 47 cents respectively. Both trades settled on the correct side of the outcome, backing the Reds win. The one sell-side whale, wallet 0x547f…2937, sold $77,799 at 67 cents and locked in a gain of $45,200 before the market ran to full settlement.

What Is Next for the Reds and Cardinals

Cincinnati returns home following the road trip, looking to climb out of a 47-54 hole in the NL Central. The Reds' next series markets are live on Lines.com as the schedule fills in. St. Louis, sitting at 52-50, remains in division contention and will look for a bounce-back series. Both clubs have active prediction markets at Lines.com for upcoming games and the 2026 MLB World Series futures market.

Traders looking for the next live Reds or Cardinals game market can head to the Lines.com MLB hub for real-time probabilities, volume data, and whale-trade tracking across the full schedule.

LINES RESOLUTION VERDICT

CINCINNATI REDS

Cincinnati beat St. Louis 4-2 in a well-pitched road win that matched what the late-market money signaled. The result confirmed the closing market consensus after a volatile trading session that saw prices swing sharply before settling exactly where the outcome landed.