Türkiye vs. United States Result: Türkiye Win 3-2

Türkiye beat the United States 3-2 in a dramatic five-goal finish to settle the Türkiye vs. United States prediction market, with Kaan Ayhan’s 98th-minute winner sealing the result at Los Angeles Stadium on June 26, 2026. Arda Güler opened the scoring in the 10th minute with his first-ever World Cup goal, and Ayhan’s stoppage-time header capped a wild comeback after the United States had briefly leveled the match.

Polymarket closed Türkiye at 54 percent, correctly favoring the side that ultimately won. The United States had already clinched Group D before kickoff, while Türkiye was already eliminated, making this a dead-rubber with nothing but pride at stake — yet the match delivered some of the group stage’s most vivid football.

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What Happened: Türkiye vs. United States

Auston Trusty put the United States in front in the 3rd minute, heading home early to give the hosts a flying start. Türkiye answered quickly. Arda Güler scored in the 10th minute, threading a ball to set up Eren Elmali before stroking home the equalizer for his first World Cup goal. Baris Alper Yilmaz then turned the match. Yilmaz struck in the 31st minute to give Türkiye a 2-1 lead heading into halftime.

Sebastian Berhalter leveled for the United States in the 49th minute, restoring parity and lifting a crowd that included Brad Pitt and Edward Norton in the Hollywood stands. The United States thought they had reclaimed the lead when a sharp McKenzie finish was ruled offside. Both sides pressed for a winner, and Türkiye found it deep in stoppage time. Kaan Ayhan headed home in the 90th+8th minute to complete a 3-2 Türkiye victory and spark wild scenes on the touchline.

How the Market Called It

Polymarket closed Türkiye at 54 percent, making them a slim favorite entering the final whistle. Türkiye’s win confirmed that call, and the market earns a correctly-favored read — though the 6-point gap between the two sides reflected genuine uncertainty. Traders reading this as a competitive dead-rubber were not wrong. Over $37 million in total volume flowed through this market, making it one of the most heavily traded group-stage contests on Polymarket. That volume signals how much capital backed the narrow Türkiye edge, and the result rewarded it.

What Is Next

The United States advanced from Group D as winners and now moves into the Round of 32. The United States faces their Round of 32 opponent with home support still firmly behind them. Traders looking to ride USA momentum — or fade it — can find the United States’ next match market on Lines.com. The World Cup hub tracks every live Round of 32 market as the knockout stage opens. Türkiye’s tournament ends here, but the drama of this match will echo through the bracket.

LINES RESOLUTION VERDICT

TÜRKIYE

Türkiye won 3-2 in a breathless match decided by Kaan Ayhan’s 98th-minute header, a result the market narrowly but correctly called with Türkiye closing at 54 percent.