Tokyo July 7 Low Temp: Will 21°C Hit?

Tokyo’s overnight low on July 7 has a market. That market is split almost down the middle, with 21°C carrying a 43.5% implied probability against a field of ten competing outcomes. The price jumped sharply on July 5, gaining more than 15% before pulling back the same day. That kind of volatility on a $1,381 total volume market tells you something important: thin liquidity means a handful of bets can move this price dramatically before resolution.

The market question asks: what will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be on July 7? The primary outcome is 21°C at a yes price of $0.44. The no price sits at $0.57. The market resolves at 12:00 UTC on July 7, 2026. Total volume stands at $1,381, with all of that volume coming in the last 24 hours.

How the 21°C Contract Works

A YES resolution requires Tokyo’s official lowest temperature on July 7 to register exactly 21°C, as reported by the designated meteorological source. Any other recorded minimum, whether 20°C, 22°C, or any other listed outcome, results in a NO resolution. The Japan Meteorological Agency publishes daily temperature records for Tokyo, and that data forms the basis for resolution.

• YES (21°C): $0.44 per share, 43.5% implied probability. Pays $1 if the Tokyo low lands exactly at 21°C on July 7.
• NO (any other outcome): $0.57 per share, 56.5% implied probability. Pays $1 if the Tokyo low comes in at any temperature other than 21°C.

The NO position carries the majority of market weight here. Tokyo’s overnight lows in early July typically range between 20°C and 25°C, depending on whether a frontal system is passing through or the city is locked in humid, warm overnight air. The 21°C outcome needs conditions to land on a specific single degree. Any persistent maritime air mass pushing lows into the 23°C to 25°C range, or any brief cooler intrusion dropping the low to 19°C or 20°C, hands the NO side its payout.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is essentially flat. The 1-hour price change is 0.0%, and the trend score of 45.07 sits below the midpoint. The sharp up-and-down movement on July 5, a 15.5% gain followed by a 12% drop in the same session, reflects thin order book dynamics rather than any meaningful shift in meteorological forecasting. With $19,323 in liquidity against only $1,381 in total volume, this market is not drawing serious capital.

Total volume at $1,381 is well below the $1M threshold that would indicate meaningful conviction. Liquidity of $19,323 is healthy relative to volume, but that gap means the order book could absorb a large position and move the price sharply. Any weather forecast update showing Tokyo lows clustering around 21°C on July 7 could reprice this contract fast. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science.

• 1-hour change is flat at 0.0%, suggesting no new forecast information has entered the market since the July 5 volatility.
• 24-hour volume of $1,381 equals total volume, meaning all trading activity in this market is less than one day old.
• Trend score of 45.07 reflects mild bearish lean, consistent with the 56.5% NO probability.
• Liquidity of $19,323 is deep relative to volume, but thin absolute volume means price discovery is weak here.
• The July 5 price swing (up 15.5%, then down 12%) is a liquidity artifact, not a signal about meteorological consensus.

Lines Analysis: Tokyo Low Temperature on July 7

Early July in Tokyo sits squarely in the pre-peak rainy season transition. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s historical data for Tokyo shows July overnight lows averaging between 22°C and 24°C, with significant variance depending on whether the Baiu front has cleared and how active the subtropical high is over the western Pacific. A 21°C low is below that average range, meaning it would require either a brief cooler intrusion or a wet, cloudy night suppressing overnight warming less than usual. That’s possible but not the default expectation for early July.

What makes NO real here is simple arithmetic across the outcome field. Ten competing outcomes share the probability space that YES does not capture. The 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes likely each carry meaningful individual probability given seasonal norms. Any forecast showing Tokyo lows settling comfortably in the 22°C to 24°C band shifts capital away from 21°C immediately. The current weather pattern over the Kanto plain and any active frontal activity in the two days before July 7 will determine where the overnight minimum actually lands.

• Japan Meteorological Agency forecast updates for Tokyo on July 6 and 7 will be the primary price driver. Any specific overnight low forecast near 21°C strengthens YES.
• Subtropical high position over the western Pacific directly controls Tokyo’s overnight minimum temperatures in early July. A stronger ridge means warmer, more humid nights.
• Baiu front activity on July 6 could pull lows downward temporarily. A frontal passage night could produce a 20°C or 21°C low.
• Competing outcomes at 20°C and 22°C are likely closest in probability to 21°C. A shift in forecast toward either would immediately dilute the 21°C position.
• Thin volume means any single trader with access to a reliable 72-hour forecast model could move this price significantly before July 7.

Total volume of $1,381 reflects a market that is essentially speculative at this stage. The data slightly favors the NO composite, since the 21°C outcome must beat nine competing temperatures. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: Tokyo’s early July climatology leans warmer than 21°C for overnight lows, making 21°C a below-average outcome that requires specific atmospheric conditions to verify.

LINES VERDICT

LEAN NO

Tokyo’s early July overnight lows historically run warmer than 21°C, and the 21°C outcome must outcompete nine other possibilities. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and right now the data favors the composite NO.

What the market says: 43.5% implied probability for 21°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty across a wide temperature field, with two days remaining before a July 7 resolution that could shift sharply on any updated forecast model showing lows clustering near a specific degree.

Key unknown: The Japan Meteorological Agency’s 72-hour forecast for Tokyo’s overnight low on July 7, released on July 5 or 6, is the single piece of information that would reprice this contract most decisively.