Seoul May 4 Low Temp: Will It Hit Ten Degrees?

Seoul’s minimum temperature on May 4 has become one of the most lopsided weather contracts on Polymarket. The 10°C outcome carries a 97.5% implied probability after a dramatic single-day repricing that moved the contract from a coin-flip to near-certainty in under 24 hours. When a weather market moves 43% in a day, something in the forecast data shifted hard.

The resolution window closes at 2026-05-04 12:00:00. That means the overnight low through early morning Seoul time is all that matters. One thermometer reading, one outcome. The market has essentially declared this settled.

How the Seoul Minimum Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Seoul’s official lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, lands exactly at 10°C. Alternative outcomes include 9°C, 11°C, and a full ladder from 5°C or below up to 15°C or higher. The Korea Meteorological Administration records the official low for Seoul, and that reading determines which outcome pays out.

• 10°C (YES): 0.98 price, 97.5% implied probability
• 9°C: listed as alternative outcome, minimal market probability
• 11°C: listed as alternative outcome, minimal market probability
• All other outcomes (8°C and below, 12°C and above): negligible pricing

The 10°C outcome misses its payout when Seoul’s recorded minimum lands on any adjacent degree. A reading of 9.4°C rounds to a different bucket. A reading of 10.6°C does the same. Korea Meteorological Administration data is reported in whole degrees Celsius, so the margin between outcomes is exactly one degree. That one-degree gap is the only real risk this contract holds.

Momentum and Market Signals

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The momentum composite here is a single story: a 43% price jump in 24 hours, flat in the last hour at 61.93 trend score, tells you the market responded to updated forecast data and has since stabilized at conviction. That kind of repricing pattern in a short-window weather market almost always traces back to a high-resolution numerical weather model update locking in a tighter temperature band.

Total market volume sits at $7,170 with $6,944 of that arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity is $3,875. This is a thin market by any standard. Volume under $1M means the price can move sharply on a single large trade or a fresh forecast update. The 97.5% price reflects trader consensus, not institutional depth. One unexpected model run showing 11°C or 9°C as the overnight floor could move this contract quickly.

Key Factors:

• The 24-hour price change of +43.0% combined with zero movement in the last hour signals a forecast-driven repricing that has now settled at high conviction.
• Total volume of $7,170 is thin. Liquidity of $3,875 makes this market susceptible to sharp moves on any fresh meteorological data.
• Seoul’s May climate places the typical overnight low in the 8°C to 13°C range for early May, making 10°C a credible central forecast target.
• The 1-hour price change of +0.0% confirms the market has reached a short-term equilibrium at 97.5% probability.
• Resolution occurs at 2026-05-04 12:00:00, covering only the overnight and early morning low through that cutoff.

Lines Analysis: Seoul Temperature Data and What Moves This Contract

Here’s what the measurements are telling us: Seoul’s early May overnight lows historically cluster between 8°C and 12°C, with 10°C sitting near the statistical center of that range. When numerical weather prediction models converge on a tight band around a specific value, prediction markets respond exactly as this one did: price jumps fast, then flattens. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s own short-range forecasts for Seoul carry strong skill at the 24-to-48-hour range, and those models appear to have driven the 43% move.

The 9°C and 11°C outcomes represent the realistic competing scenarios. A cold front arriving slightly ahead of schedule pushes the low toward 9°C. A slower-than-forecast overnight cooling keeps the floor near 11°C. Neither scenario is impossible, but the market is pricing both as low-probability. The data doesn’t care about the politics of how thin this market is. If the Korea Meteorological Administration records 10°C, this contract pays. The question is how confident traders should be in a $7,170 market making a 97.5% claim.

Signals to Monitor:

• Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecast updates for Seoul on May 3 and May 4 morning: any shift in the predicted overnight low would directly reprice competing outcomes.
• Regional synoptic pattern: a stronger-than-forecast cold air intrusion from the northwest would push the low toward 9°C and compress the 10°C probability.
• Warm advection from the Yellow Sea: if onshore flow strengthens overnight, the low could hold at 11°C or above, pulling capital toward the higher buckets.
• Final model consensus at the 12-hour forecast range: short-range mesoscale models for Seoul have high resolution and typically resolve the overnight low within one degree by this lead time.
• Any reported observation data from Seoul weather stations in the hours approaching 2026-05-04 12:00:00 would functionally confirm or challenge the 10°C consensus.

The $7,170 total volume keeps this contract in perspective. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science. A 97.5% probability on a one-degree temperature bucket in a thin market reflects the available forecast data, not a guaranteed measurement. The data favors the 10°C outcome, but the forecast tolerance bands for an overnight low are rarely tighter than plus or minus one degree.

LINES VERDICT

Forecasts Converge on Ten Degrees

The 43% single-day repricing tells you the forecast data made a strong case for 10°C and the market followed it. Thin liquidity means this price reflects conviction, not volume-backed certainty.

What the market says: 97.5% probability implies traders see the 10°C outcome as nearly certain ahead of the 2026-05-04 12:00:00 resolution. Given volume under $1M, treat the price as directionally correct but susceptible to sharp movement on any forecast revision.

Key unknown: The single most important input is the Korea Meteorological Administration’s final short-range forecast for Seoul’s overnight low on May 4. Any model update shifting the predicted minimum to 9°C or 11°C would immediately redistribute probability across the adjacent outcome buckets.

Scientific Context: Seoul’s Early May Temperature Profile

Seoul sits in a humid continental climate zone, where early May brings the transition between spring warming and the onset of pre-monsoon patterns. The Korea Meteorological Administration operates a dense surface observation network across the Seoul metropolitan area, with the official city observation point at Jongno-gu providing the authoritative daily minimum. Historical records for the first week of May show overnight lows typically ranging from 7°C to 13°C, with 10°C representing a near-median value for this period. The 24-hour price movement in this contract is consistent with ensemble model output narrowing toward that median as the forecast horizon shortened. Before 2026-05-04 12:00:00, the only event that reprices this contract is a Korea Meteorological Administration forecast revision showing the overnight low outside the 10°C bucket.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 97.5% probability mean here? It means traders collectively assign a 97.5% chance that Seoul’s official minimum temperature on May 4 lands exactly at 10°C, based on current forecast data and available capital in this market.
• How does the competing outcome pay out? Any outcome other than 10°C, including 9°C or 11°C, pays out on that specific bucket instead. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s recorded whole-degree minimum determines which contract resolves YES.
• What data event could move this price before resolution? A Korea Meteorological Administration forecast update shifting the predicted overnight low by one degree in either direction would be the primary repricing catalyst before the 2026-05-04 12:00:00 close.
• When does this market resolve? Resolution occurs at 2026-05-04 12:00:00, based on the official Seoul minimum temperature recorded through that cutoff time.
• Is the $7,170 volume enough to trust this price? Volume under $1M means liquidity is thin at $3,875. The 97.5% price reflects current trader consensus, but a single large trade or forecast revision could shift it meaningfully before resolution.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-03 16:12:58. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-04 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.