Seoul May 11 Low Temp: Will Thirteen Degrees Hold?

Seoul’s overnight low temperature on May 11 has become one of the more specific prediction market bets of the spring season. The contract asks traders to pin the exact lowest temperature reading in Seoul on that single day. Right now, 13°C carries a 54% implied probability. That number jumped hard in the last 24 hours, gaining ground as traders locked in on the favored outcome with real conviction.

The market opened at 21% and has climbed to 54% since May 10. That is a dramatic reprice for a weather contract with less than 48 hours to resolution. Something in the forecast data moved traders off the fence. Here is what the measurements are telling us about why 13°C became the consensus pick.

How the Thirteen-Degree Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the lowest recorded temperature in Seoul on May 11, 2026 hits exactly 13°C. Resolution follows official meteorological data for Seoul. The contract closes at 2026-05-11 12:00:00.

• 13°C (YES): 0.54 implied probability, current price $0.54
• All other outcomes (NO): 0.46 implied probability, current price $0.46

The competing outcomes span a wide range: 12°C, 11°C, 10°C, 9°C or below on the colder side, and 14°C through 19°C or higher on the warmer side. For the NO side to pay out, Seoul’s overnight low on May 11 lands anywhere outside the 13°C reading. Seoul’s Korea Meteorological Administration records hourly surface temperatures at multiple city stations. Even a one-degree deviation in either direction flips the result entirely. That is a narrow target.

Momentum and Market Signals

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What the Price Movement Is Saying

The momentum composite here is unusually sharp for a short-duration weather contract. The 24-hour price change of +24.0%, combined with a trend score of 60.86 and no hourly change in the last period, reads as a burst of conviction that has now paused. Traders moved fast and then held their position. That pattern typically reflects a new forecast model run or updated numerical weather prediction data pushing traders toward alignment on a single outcome.

Total volume stands at $9,196, with $5,747 of that trading in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $1,280. This is a thin market. At that liquidity level, a single large trade can move the price meaningfully. Any fresh data from the Korea Meteorological Administration or updated global forecast models in the next 24 hours could reprice the contract sharply. Treat the current 54% with appropriate caution given the liquidity floor.

• The 24-hour volume of $5,747 represents more than 60% of total market volume, signaling a late-stage rush into the 13°C position.
• The 1-hour change of +0.0% after a +24.0% daily surge suggests traders are waiting for the next forecast update before adding more capital.
• Liquidity at $1,280 means price discovery here is fragile. One informed trader can move this contract.
• The trend score of 60.86 places this market in moderate upward momentum territory, not runaway conviction.
• Open interest reads at $0, which reflects the pre-resolution window where positions are being held rather than actively rolled.

Lines Analysis: Seoul Temperature Forecast

Seoul in mid-May typically sees overnight lows in the 11°C to 15°C range as the city transitions out of its spring cool period. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s regional forecast models for the Seoul metropolitan area have been tracking a surface low pressure system moving through the Korean peninsula this weekend. That system is the primary driver behind trader movement toward 13°C. A mild overnight with residual cloud cover and light southerly flow fits the 13°C outcome cleanly.

The competing colder outcomes, 12°C and below, require either the low pressure system to stall or a trailing cold air mass from northeastern China to arrive faster than current models suggest. The warmer outcomes, 14°C and above, require the system to pass earlier and allow warmer air advection from the south overnight. Neither scenario has strong forecast support as of May 10. But in a single-day temperature contract, model uncertainty at 24 to 36 hours is real. A one-degree forecast error is entirely within normal range for numerical weather prediction.

Signals to monitor before 2026-05-11 12:00:00:

• Korea Meteorological Administration overnight forecast updates for Seoul’s Jongno or Nowon weather stations will be the most direct signal for this contract.
• The 00Z and 06Z GFS and ECMWF model runs on the evening of May 10 will show whether the surface low tracks as expected or deviates.
• Any shift in the low pressure system’s timing by more than three hours changes the overnight low window significantly.
• Cloud cover and wind direction forecasts for Seoul after midnight local time are the secondary variables that separate 13°C from 12°C or 14°C.
• A surprise cold air intrusion from the north, even a shallow one, could push the reading below 12°C and collapse the current consensus.

The $9,196 total market is priced with 54% leaning toward 13°C. The forecast data, as of May 10, supports that lean. But the data doesn’t care about the politics of the bet. A single degree of forecast error resolves this contract against the majority position. Thin liquidity means that if a new model run tonight shows a 12°C or 14°C low, the price will move fast with very little friction.

LINES VERDICT

Thirteen Degrees, Fragile Consensus

The market’s sharp 24-hour move toward 13°C reflects genuine forecast convergence, not noise. But at $1,280 in liquidity and a one-degree resolution margin, this contract is one model update away from a full reprice.

What the market says: Fifty-four percent implies 13°C is the single most likely outcome for Seoul’s May 11 overnight low. That is a plurality, not a majority, in a multi-outcome field. Volatility remains real through the 2026-05-11 12:00:00 resolution window.

Key unknown: The evening forecast model runs on May 10 from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models are the single most important data inputs. A shift of even two or three degrees in the predicted low collapses the current consensus and reprices the contract sharply.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What does 54% mean for this contract? The 54% implied probability means traders currently believe 13°C has roughly a one-in-two chance of being Seoul’s exact overnight low on May 11. It is a plurality pick in a field with more than ten possible outcomes.
• What pays out on the NO side? Any outcome other than exactly 13°C resolves NO as the winning position. That includes 12°C, 14°C, or any temperature outside that single reading recorded by Seoul’s official meteorological stations.
• What data or event moves this price most? Updated numerical weather prediction model runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global forecast models on May 10 evening are the primary catalysts. A shift in the forecast low by one degree reprices the contract immediately.
• When does this contract resolve? Resolution occurs at 2026-05-11 12:00:00. The official low temperature reading for May 11 in Seoul determines the outcome.
• Is the volume here reliable? Total volume is $9,196 with only $1,280 in liquidity. This is a thin market. Price can move sharply on a single trade. Treat the current probability as directional, not precise.

This analysis reflects market conditions as of 2026-05-10 12:16:10. Prediction market probabilities are volatile and shift as new data and regulatory decisions emerge, especially as the 2026-05-11 12:00:00 resolution date approaches. Lines.com does not accept bets or provide financial or gambling advice. All market outcomes are uncertain.