Seoul July 5 Low Temp: Can 22°C Hold at 47%?

Seoul’s overnight low on July 5 has become a surprisingly tight call. The 22°C outcome sits at 47.5% implied probability, nearly splitting the market with its neighbors at 23°C and 21°C. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the price has moved sharply upward today, suggesting traders are converging on the 22°C band as the most likely landing zone.

The market question asks: what will Seoul’s lowest temperature be on July 5? The 22°C outcome is priced at 0.48 YES and 0.53 NO. The market resolves on July 5, 2026 at 12:00 UTC, with total volume and 24-hour volume both at $12,781, reflecting a market that opened and filled almost entirely today.

How the 22°C Outcome Works

YES pays out if Seoul’s official lowest temperature on July 5 lands exactly at 22°C. NO covers every other outcome: 21°C, 23°C, 24°C, 20°C, 19°C, 18°C or below, 25°C, 26°C, 27°C, or 28°C and higher. The resolution source is market resolution, which will reference official temperature data for Seoul on that date.

• YES (22°C exactly): priced at 0.48, implying 47.5% probability.
• NO (any other temperature): priced at 0.53, implying 52.5% probability.

The NO side wins if Seoul’s low drifts even one degree in either direction. Early July in Seoul typically sees overnight lows ranging from 20°C to 26°C depending on humidity, cloud cover, and whether the seasonal monsoon (Jangma) is actively suppressing temperatures or holding heat overnight. A single degree of error erases the YES position entirely.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is striking. The 1-hour price change of +0.5%, combined with multiple intraday spikes of 5.5% to 9.5% earlier on July 3, and a trend score of 37.16, all point to a single driver: this market launched today and filled fast. Traders moved quickly to price 22°C as the modal outcome, but conviction is limited by the narrow resolution window.

Total volume is $12,781, with the full amount transacted in the last 24 hours. Liquidity stands at $36,979, which is healthy relative to volume and means the order book can absorb moderate-sized trades without significant price impact. Still, with volume below $1 million, a single large bet could move the price meaningfully before resolution tomorrow.

• The 1-hour gain of +0.5% and today’s earlier spikes reflect rapid price discovery in a brand-new market, not a sustained directional trend.
• Total volume of $12,781 is thin. New information (a weather model update, a forecast revision) could shift the price sharply before July 5.
• Liquidity of $36,979 provides buffer, but this market is still small enough that a few concentrated bets matter.
• Trend score of 37.16 is moderate, suggesting the market has not yet reached strong conviction in either direction.
• The 24-hour volume equaling total volume confirms this market is less than one day old. All pricing reflects fresh, not seasoned, trader judgment.

Lines Analysis: Seoul’s Overnight Floor on July 5

Seoul in early July sits at the edge of the Jangma monsoon season. Overnight lows during this period cluster between 21°C and 24°C, with 22°C and 23°C being historically common outcomes when monsoon cloud cover traps heat while light rain events slightly depress the surface low. The market’s choice of 22°C as the modal outcome at 47.5% aligns with that climatological band. Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for Seoul in this window typically show overnight lows in exactly this range, making 22°C a reasonable central estimate.

What makes NO real is the width of the alternative outcomes. The 22°C bucket competes against ten other possible outcomes, from 18°C or below all the way to 28°C or higher. If an unexpected cold front pushes the overnight low to 21°C or 20°C, YES loses. If the monsoon stalls and humid air holds temperatures at 23°C or 24°C, YES also loses. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s operational forecast for July 5 is the single most important input here, and any revision toward either end of the range would reprice this contract immediately.

• Korea Meteorological Administration issues daily updated forecasts. A shift in the July 5 overnight low projection by even one degree would directly reprice the YES outcome.
• Active Jangma conditions (heavy rain, cloud cover) tend to pin overnight lows in the 21-23°C range, which supports the 22°C cluster.
• A break in monsoon cloud cover on July 4 evening could allow radiative cooling, pushing the low toward 20-21°C and away from 22°C.
• High humidity and urban heat island effects in Seoul typically raise overnight lows compared to surrounding regions, favoring the upper end of the probability band.
• Resolution occurs at 12:00 UTC on July 5. Any weather event in the hours before that window closes matters directly to outcome.

Here’s what the measurements are telling us: 22°C is a defensible central estimate for Seoul’s July 5 overnight low, but the market is pricing uncertainty, not science. With $12,781 in total volume and ten competing outcomes, this is a market built on a narrow bet with wide miss potential. The data doesn’t care about the politics of which bucket wins. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s forecast revision, if any arrives before July 5 morning, is the only signal that would sharply reprice this contract.

MARGINAL EDGE TO YES, RESOLUTION-DEPENDENT

The 22°C outcome reflects genuine climatological reasoning for early July Seoul, but ten competing buckets mean the NO probability is structurally elevated regardless of forecast accuracy.

What the market says: At 47.5% implied probability, the market treats 22°C as the single most likely outcome but not a confident one. With resolution in less than 48 hours and volume below $1 million, this price can move sharply on any forecast update.

Key unknown: The Korea Meteorological Administration’s next official forecast update for Seoul’s July 5 overnight low is the single data point that would move this market. A one-degree shift in either direction reprices YES significantly.