NYC July 4 Low Temp: Can 78-79°F Hold at 30%?

New York City’s overnight low on July 4 sits at the center of a multi-outcome temperature market, and the data is pointing in several directions at once. The 78-79°F band currently carries a 30.5% implied probability, making it the leading single outcome in a field of eleven brackets. That lead is narrow. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science.

The market question asks: what is the lowest temperature in NYC on July 4, 2026? The 78-79°F outcome is priced at $0.31 YES and $0.70 NO. This market closes July 4 at noon, with total volume at $3,982 and liquidity at $8,848.

How the NYC July 4 Low Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves on a single meteorological reading: the minimum temperature recorded in New York City on July 4, 2026. Resolution is determined by the designated weather source at market close on July 4 at noon Eastern. A YES buyer on 78-79°F wins if that bracket captures the night’s low. Every other bracket pays zero.

• 78-79°F YES: $0.31 per share, 30.5% implied probability, the current leader across all brackets.
• 80-81°F, 76-77°F, and adjacent bands split the remaining probability mass across ten competing outcomes.

The NO contract at $0.70 reflects the 69.5% chance the low falls outside 78-79°F entirely. New York City’s overnight low on July 4 has historically ranged from the upper 50s to the low 80s, meaning a 10-degree range above or below this bracket is physically plausible. The market needs a tight cluster of weather conditions, not just a warm night, for YES to resolve.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The combined momentum signal here is mixed. The 1-hour price change shows a 4.5% drop in the 78-79°F contract, and the trend score of 51.68 sits just above neutral. That combination suggests the market moved up sharply on July 2 (a 10.5-point gain) and is now cooling as traders reassess the forecast. The driver is almost certainly updated weather modeling as July 4 approaches.

Total volume stands at $3,982, with all of that traded in the last 24 hours. Liquidity is $8,848. This is a thin market by any standard. At this volume level, a single large trade can reprice the contract dramatically. Small position changes carry outsized influence on displayed probability.

• The 78-79°F bracket climbed sharply on July 2, likely tracking a warmer forecast signal from GFS or European model runs.
• The 1-hour drop of 4.5% suggests models may have since shifted slightly cooler or adjacent brackets absorbed new money.
• Trend score of 51.68 indicates no strong directional conviction despite the recent swing.
• Thin liquidity means the 30.5% figure is a market snapshot, not a stable consensus reading.
• The 24-hour volume equaling total volume confirms this market opened and filled within a single trading session.

Lines Analysis: What Drives the NYC Overnight Low

The 78-79°F bracket makes sense as a leader given current seasonal norms for New York City. July 4 falls at peak summer. Central Park’s average July low sits around 68-70°F historically, but urban heat island effects and warm-front positioning can push overnight lows well into the upper 70s. If a moisture-laden southerly flow holds through July 3 night, a 78-79°F low is entirely plausible.

The adjacent 80-81°F bracket is the most direct threat to YES resolution. Exceptionally warm and humid air masses can keep overnight lows above 80°F in Manhattan. The cooler brackets, 76-77°F and below, become realistic if any cold front passage or cloud clearing accelerates overnight radiative cooling. Neither scenario is ruled out at this range. The market’s spread across eleven outcomes reflects exactly that physics uncertainty.

• National Weather Service forecast for NYC on July 3-4 will be the single most important signal before market close.
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model consensus for the July 4 overnight trough matters more than any single model run.
• Dew point readings above 70°F generally prevent significant overnight cooling, supporting the upper brackets.
• Any frontal boundary within 100 miles of the city on July 3 evening could shift the outcome bracket by 4-6 degrees.
• Historical NYC July 4 lows from NOAA climate normals center near 68-72°F, but anomalous warm years have reached the low 80s.

The data doesn’t care about the politics of the holiday. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the 78-79°F bracket holds a modest plurality in a deeply split field. With $3,982 in total volume and a market that is less than 48 hours from closing, any meaningful forecast update will reprice every bracket simultaneously.

LINES VERDICT

LEADING BRACKET, THIN CONVICTION

The 78-79°F band holds the top spot in a fragmented eleven-outcome market, but the recent price drop and thin volume mean this position is not stable.

What the market says: A 30.5% implied probability means the market gives this bracket roughly one-in-three odds in a field of eleven. That is a plurality, not a majority. With resolution on July 4 and only hours of trading remaining, any forecast model shift will move prices sharply given the $8,848 liquidity environment.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service’s updated forecast for the July 3-4 overnight low in Central Park is the single data point that will reprice every bracket in this market before close.