NYC July 3 Low Temp: Will It Hit 86-87°F?

New York City is heading into July 4th weekend with an unusual temperature question on the table. The overnight low for July 3 is the variable being traded here, and the market has landed almost exactly on a coin flip. The 86-87°F bracket carries a 48% implied probability, which means traders see roughly equal odds that NYC’s minimum temperature lands in that two-degree window or somewhere else entirely.

The market question asks: what will the lowest temperature recorded in NYC be on July 3? The 86-87°F outcome sits at $0.48 YES and $0.52 NO, resolving at noon on July 3, 2026. Total volume is $5,604, all transacted in the last 24 hours. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: this market is young, thin, and moving fast.

How the NYC July 3 Low Temperature Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on July 3, 2026 falls between 86°F and 87°F inclusive. The resolution source is the market operator’s designated weather data feed. If the low falls outside that two-degree band, regardless of direction, the 86-87°F contract resolves NO and one of the eleven alternative brackets pays out instead.

• YES ($0.48, 48% implied probability): NYC’s July 3 low temperature registers between 86°F and 87°F.
• NO ($0.52, 52% implied probability): NYC’s July 3 low falls anywhere outside 86-87°F, including hotter or cooler brackets.

The NO side covers a wide range. Alternative outcomes span from 75°F or below all the way to 94°F or higher, with ten other brackets in between. For NO to pay on this specific contract, the temperature simply needs to miss 86-87°F in any direction. The National Weather Service forecast for the New York metro area through July 4th weekend is the single most important external data source here. When forecasters update their overnight low projections, this contract reprices immediately.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is instructive. The trend score sits at 54.21, and the 1-hour price change is flat at 0.0%. The 24-hour change is not available as a clean comparison, but the price history context shows a sharp 13% drop on July 1 followed by a 19.5% surge on July 2. That whipsaw pattern almost certainly tracks National Weather Service forecast updates as meteorologists refined their July 3 overnight low projections. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science.

Total volume is $5,604, with all of it arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $16,197, which is modest. Volume well below $1 million means this contract can move sharply on a single updated forecast or a weather model shift. One NOAA ensemble run pointing toward a hotter or cooler overnight low could swing this price by 10 or more points before noon on July 3.

Key Factors

• The 1-hour price change is flat at 0.0%, suggesting the market has absorbed the most recent forecast data and is waiting for the next National Weather Service update.
• The 24-hour price history shows a 19.5% gain on July 2, consistent with a forecast revision toward hotter overnight temperatures in the NYC metro area.
• Liquidity of $16,197 against $5,604 in total volume signals a thin book. A fresh weather model run or a NWS special statement could reprice this contract significantly.
• Eleven competing brackets mean even a confident YES call on 86-87°F carries execution risk. The probability is spread across a wide temperature range.
• The trend score of 54.21 is barely above neutral, confirming the market has no strong directional conviction at the current price level.

Lines Analysis: What the Weather Data Says About This Bracket

The case for 86-87°F landing as the overnight low comes down to the broader heat pattern affecting the Northeast this summer. July 2026 has tracked above the 1991-2020 climatological normal for the New York City area. When overnight temperatures in NYC remain elevated, the urban heat island effect keeps minimum temperatures from dropping as far as suburban or rural stations. The 86-87°F bracket represents an unusually warm overnight low by historical standards for early July, which is exactly what a persistent heat pattern would produce. The July 2 price surge suggests forecast models moved in that direction.

What makes the NO side real is the width of the competing brackets. The National Weather Service does not need to forecast a dramatic cold snap for this contract to miss. A low of 84°F pays a different bracket. A low of 88°F pays a different bracket. The 86-87°F window is only two degrees wide in a forecast that carries at least two to three degrees of uncertainty at 24 to 48 hours out. That structural uncertainty is what keeps the NO price above 50%.

Signals to Monitor

• National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion updates for the New York City metro: any revision to the overnight low forecast for July 3 is the primary price driver.
• NOAA Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs through July 2: convergence between models would give the market more conviction in either direction.
• Heat advisory or excessive heat warning issuance for NYC: either action from NWS implies overnight lows remaining elevated, supporting the hotter brackets.
• Observed afternoon highs on July 2 in Central Park: a very hot daytime high makes a warm overnight low more likely, which would support 86-87°F or hotter brackets.
• Sea breeze development on the evening of July 2: an effective sea breeze moving into Manhattan could drop the overnight low by three to five degrees, pushing the market toward cooler brackets.

Total volume of $5,604 reflects a market that opened recently and is still finding its price. The data currently favors neither side with conviction. The next National Weather Service forecast update before July 3 is the single event that will resolve this uncertainty.

LINES VERDICT

COIN FLIP WITH THIN LIQUIDITY

The 86-87°F bracket is plausible given the current heat pattern over the Northeast, but the two-degree window is narrow and weather forecast uncertainty at this range is real. The data doesn’t care about the politics of a July 4th weekend heat wave.

What the market says: A 48% implied probability translates to roughly even odds that NYC’s July 3 overnight low lands in the 86-87°F range. With all volume arriving in the last 24 hours and the end date just hours away, volatility is high and a single forecast update can move this contract sharply before resolution at noon on July 3.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service overnight low forecast for Central Park on July 3 is the decisive data point. Any revision toward 84-85°F or 88-89°F would immediately reprice this contract by double digits.