Miami Low Temp July 6: 80-81°F Leads at 46%

Miami’s overnight low temperature for July 6 is a genuine toss-up. The 80-81°F bracket leads at 45.5% implied probability, but that leaves more than half the market betting on a different outcome. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: South Florida’s summer lows cluster tightly, and a single degree of deviation from the mean can swing this contract entirely.

This market asks: what will the lowest temperature recorded in Miami be on July 6, 2026? The 80-81°F bracket trades at $0.46 YES and $0.55 NO, with resolution set for July 6 at 12:00 PM ET. Total volume stands at $4,581, all placed within the last 24 hours.

How the 80-81°F Contract Works

YES pays out if Miami’s official overnight low on July 6 falls between 80°F and 81°F inclusive. The resolution source is market-designated, meaning the final reading from the official weather station serving Miami determines the outcome. NO pays if the low lands anywhere outside that two-degree window, including the next nearest brackets: 78-79°F or 82-83°F.

• YES ($0.46): Miami’s July 6 low registers 80°F or 81°F.
• NO ($0.55): Miami’s low falls below 80°F or above 81°F on July 6.

The NO side covers a wide range of outcomes. Miami’s July lows have historically ranged from the upper 70s to the low 80s, meaning the 78-79°F and 82-83°F brackets are genuine competitors. A persistent onshore flow, elevated humidity, or an approaching disturbance could push the low above 81°F. A brief inland drainage pattern or a slightly drier air mass could pull it below 80°F. Neither scenario requires unusual weather.

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Momentum and Market Signals

Momentum is effectively flat. The 1-hour price change is 0.0%, and the trend score sits at 52.96, essentially neutral. The market moved up roughly 6% on July 4, likely as traders priced in the July 6 resolution date becoming imminent and consulted short-range forecast models. Since then, the price has held steady near $0.46.

Total volume is $4,581, with all of it arriving in the last 24 hours. Liquidity is $17,049, which is meaningful for a single-day weather contract. Volume is well below the $1 million threshold, so thin trading conditions apply. A single large bet could reprice this contract sharply before the July 6 morning close.

• The 1-hour and 24-hour signals are both flat, confirming no new weather data has strongly shifted trader conviction since the July 4 move.
• The trend score of 52.96 is nearly dead center, reflecting genuine uncertainty across the bracket range.
• Liquidity at $17,049 is solid relative to volume, suggesting the order book can absorb moderate new positions without dramatic slippage.
• The 45.5% YES probability means traders see the 80-81°F bracket as the single most likely outcome, but not a majority outcome when all brackets are considered.
• Volume below $1 million means this price is fragile. A short-range model update or a decisive surface analysis could move the market before resolution.

Lines Analysis: Miami’s July Baseline and the Two-Degree Problem

Miami’s July overnight lows are historically among the most stable of any U.S. city. The city sits at the edge of the subtropics, surrounded by warm water on three sides, and the urban heat island effect keeps lows elevated. July averages for overnight lows in Miami run in the low 80s, which places the 80-81°F bracket squarely in the climatological center. That is why it leads.

The NO side becomes real under two distinct scenarios. First, a tropical disturbance or active convective pattern drawing in slightly cooler air aloft can suppress the surface low and push readings into the 82-83°F or higher bracket. Second, a brief dip in moisture or a weak cold front remnant, however rare in July, can pull the low below 80°F into the 78-79°F bracket. The data doesn’t care about the politics of which scenario traders prefer. Both are physically plausible over a 24-hour window.

• The National Weather Service Miami forecast for July 6 is the single most important signal. Any update showing lows above 82°F would pressure YES sharply.
• Surface dewpoint readings at Miami International Airport are a leading indicator. Dewpoints above 75°F favor lows staying at or above 80°F.
• Tropical weather activity in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico could enhance overnight cloud cover, trapping heat and pushing lows higher than forecast.
• A 00Z or 06Z radiosonde launch from Miami showing drier mid-level air could signal lower overnight lows, benefiting the 78-79°F bracket at YES’s expense.

Total volume of $4,581 reflects a young market with a tight resolution window. The data currently favors the 80-81°F bracket as the modal outcome, but modal does not mean probable in absolute terms. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science, and the full bracket distribution means any single outcome carries less than majority odds.

LINES VERDICT

MARGINAL EDGE TO THE LEADING BRACKET

The 80-81°F bracket holds the strongest single-bracket position, grounded in Miami’s July climatological baseline. But at 45.5%, this contract prices a coin-flip outcome against a wide field of alternatives, and thin volume means the price can move fast on any forecast update before the July 6 morning close.

What the market says: At 45.5% implied probability, traders see the 80-81°F range as the most likely single outcome but not a lock. With resolution less than 24 hours away, any National Weather Service forecast revision for the Miami overnight low is the most important catalyst left.

Key unknown: The NWS Miami evening forecast package for July 5-6, specifically the projected overnight low for Miami International Airport, is the single data point most likely to reprice this contract before it closes.