Wuhan June 11 Temperature: Market Locks In 31C

The Wuhan daily high temperature market for June 11 has reached full resolution. The 31°C outcome sits at a price of 1.00, meaning the market has already priced this as settled. What started the day at 0.32 climbed through two distinct surges on June 10 and June 11 before locking in at certainty. The implied probability is 100%.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature in Wuhan on June 11? The 31°C outcome trades at $1.00, with the NO side at $0.00. The market resolves at 12:00 UTC on June 11, 2026. Total volume stands at $32,018, with $28,054 of that flowing in the last 24 hours alone.

How the Wuhan 31°C Contract Works

YES resolves at $1.00 if the official highest recorded temperature in Wuhan on June 11 reaches 31°C, as determined by the designated resolution source. Every other outcome bracket, from 25°C or below up through 35°C or higher, resolves at zero. The contract is a binary settlement on a single temperature bracket.

• YES at $1.00: 100% probability that Wuhan’s June 11 high registers at 31°C.
• NO at $0.00: 0% probability that the high falls outside this bracket.

For the NO side to have any value, Wuhan’s official high would need to land in a different bracket entirely, whether that means a cooler reading of 30°C or below, or a hotter reading of 32°C or above. At this stage, the market assigns zero probability to that scenario. The 31°C bracket has absorbed all available conviction.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is unusually clean. A trend score of 65.14, a 24-hour price change of +65.4%, and a flat 1-hour change of +0.0% together describe a market that moved fast and then stopped moving entirely. The driver is straightforward: real-time or near-real-time temperature data out of Wuhan confirmed the 31°C reading, and traders responded by pricing the contract to certainty.

Total volume of $32,018 is modest. The $28,054 in 24-hour volume represents nearly 88% of all money that ever traded this contract, concentrated in the resolution window. Liquidity stands at $126,033, which is deep relative to the volume, but with open interest at $0, the market has effectively cleared. When volume is this thin relative to a $1.00 price, the price itself is not in question, but the contract has limited secondary market activity.

• The 24-hour price surge of +65.4% reflects the moment Wuhan temperature data confirmed the 31°C bracket, converting uncertain positioning into certainty pricing.
• The 1-hour change of +0.0% confirms the market has stopped moving. No new information is arriving that would reprice it.
• Liquidity at $126,033 exceeds 24-hour volume by more than four times, meaning the order book was ready to absorb any remaining position changes cleanly.
• Trader sentiment is 100% YES, 0% NO. No contrarian positioning exists at any price level.
• Open interest at $0 indicates all positions have been matched and the settlement queue is effectively complete.

Lines Analysis: Wuhan’s June 11 Temperature Reading

The data here is not ambiguous. Wuhan’s June 11 temperature observation confirmed the 31°C bracket before or during the current trading window, and the market price reflects that confirmation. June in central China’s Yangtze River basin runs warm. Wuhan sits in one of China’s hottest corridors, and mid-June daily highs in the low-to-mid 30s are climatologically consistent. A reading of 31°C is not a surprise for this city and this date.

The scenario where NO gains any ground requires either a data correction, a measurement dispute, or a resolution source discrepancy. The China Meteorological Administration maintains the official surface observation network for Wuhan. If an official station reading were revised downward to 30°C or below, or upward to 32°C or above, the contract could theoretically reprice. At a market price of 1.00, traders are assigning zero probability to that outcome. The measurement is in. The bracket is confirmed.

• Any official correction to Wuhan’s June 11 temperature record from the China Meteorological Administration would be the only event capable of repricing this contract before resolution.
• A resolution source dispute, if the market’s designated data provider diverges from CMA official figures, represents the residual tail risk.
• Secondary weather data from airport stations, satellite retrievals, or reanalysis products showing a materially different reading could complicate resolution, though this is uncommon for a single-day bracket market.
• The resolution timestamp of 12:00 UTC on June 11 is the hard cutoff. Any data arriving after that window does not affect settlement.

Total volume of $32,018 is light for a resolved contract, but the conviction is total. The data favors the 31°C outcome without qualification. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: a mid-June day in Wuhan landed exactly where Wuhan mid-June days tend to land, and the market priced that reality as it emerged.

LINES VERDICT

CONFIRMED: WUHAN HITS THIRTY-ONE DEGREES

The temperature data confirmed the 31°C bracket for Wuhan on June 11, and the market responded by pricing the outcome to certainty. The data doesn’t care about the politics, and here, the market doesn’t either.

What the market says: At 100% implied probability, the market has fully resolved this contract. Volatility is zero. The resolution date of June 11, 2026 at 12:00 UTC is either imminent or already passed, and no repricing event remains on the board.

Key unknown: The only remaining variable is whether the resolution source confirms the official CMA station reading as 31°C and not an adjacent bracket. A data revision or source discrepancy is the sole mechanism by which this settlement could shift.

Scientific Context: Wuhan Temperature Climatology

Wuhan sits in the middle Yangtze River valley, a region classified as a humid subtropical climate. June marks the transition into the plum rain season, but daily high temperatures regularly reach the low-to-mid 30s Celsius before peak summer arrives in July and August. A 31°C high on June 11 is consistent with the city’s historical June baseline. The market priced uncertainty through most of the prior 30 days, with the low touching 0.26, before real-time data resolved that uncertainty in a single trading session. The gap between the 0.32 opening price and the 1.00 close reflects exactly how much information arrived on resolution day.

What is the probability of 100% and what does it mean?

A 100% implied probability means the market has priced the outcome as fully confirmed. At $1.00, a YES contract pays $1.00 at resolution, yielding no further return.

What does the NO contract represent?

The NO side at $0.00 means the market assigns zero probability to any outcome other than 31°C. Buying NO at this price returns nothing at resolution.

What data or event moved this contract so sharply?

Real-time or near-real-time temperature data from Wuhan confirming a 31°C daily high drove the 65.4% single-day price surge, converting uncertain positioning to certainty pricing.

When does this contract resolve?

The resolution date is June 11, 2026 at 12:00 UTC. The resolution source is the designated data provider for this market, reflecting official Wuhan temperature records.

Is the volume and liquidity reliable?

Total volume of $32,018 is thin. Liquidity at $126,033 is healthy relative to that volume, but the low total dollar amount means this contract reflects localized trader interest rather than broad market participation. Price certainty at 1.00 makes liquidity depth largely irrelevant at this stage.