Tel Aviv June 24 High Temp: 31°C Locks In at 97%

The Tel Aviv temperature market for June 24 has stopped being a question. The 31°C outcome is trading at 97 cents, and the momentum behind that price has been extraordinary: up more than 51 percent in 24 hours, with a 28-point surge in the last hour alone. When a market moves like that, it is not pricing uncertainty. It is confirming what the atmosphere has already decided.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on June 24? The 31°C outcome sits at $0.97 YES and $0.03 NO, implying a 96.6% probability. The market resolves at 2026-06-24 12:00 UTC, and total volume has reached $41,927, with $22,905 traded in the last 24 hours alone.

How the 31°C Contract Works

A YES resolution requires the highest recorded temperature in Tel Aviv on June 24 to reach exactly 31°C, as determined by the designated resolution source for this market. A NO resolution means the daily high lands at any other value, whether 30°C or below, or 32°C or above. The contract closes at noon UTC on June 24.

• 31°C YES: $0.97 (96.6% implied probability)
• 31°C NO: $0.03 (3.4% implied probability)

The NO side pays out only if Tel Aviv’s measured peak temperature falls outside the 31°C reading. June 24 temperatures in Tel Aviv regularly land in the 28-34°C range, with 31°C sitting squarely in the seasonal median. The market has concluded that 31°C is the reading, not merely a likely bracket.

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Momentum Is One-Way and Accelerating

The combined momentum signal here is unusually clean. A 51.1-point gain over 24 hours paired with a 28.1-point surge in the last hour, driving a trend score of 69.23, points to one thing: real-time weather data is confirming the 31°C reading as the day unfolds. This kind of terminal convergence happens when live temperature readings align with the specific resolution threshold.

Total volume of $41,927 is modest by large prediction market standards, and 24-hour volume of $22,905 represents more than half of all activity in this contract. Liquidity stands at $60,569. With volume below $1M, this market can move sharply on a single new data point, but at 97 cents, there is almost no room left to move higher.

Key Factors

• The 1-hour price change of +28.1% and the 24-hour change of +51.1% reflect intraday temperature data arriving in real time and confirming proximity to the 31°C threshold.
• The trend score of 69.23 signals sustained directional buying with no meaningful counter-pressure from NO-side traders.
• The 31°C outcome sits in the center of Tel Aviv’s late June temperature distribution, making it the highest-probability single-degree resolution from the outset.
• Thin volume below $1M means the 97-cent price is fragile to a late measurement revision, but no such revision has appeared.
• The resolution window closes at noon UTC, leaving almost no time for new information to reprice this contract.

Lines Analysis: What the Data Is Confirming

Tel Aviv in late June consistently records daily highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. The 31°C target is not an outlier or a long-shot threshold. It is the kind of reading that meteorological stations in the region produce on a typical June day. The dramatic intraday price movement from $0.35 at market open to $0.97 now is the market’s way of saying: the temperature data has arrived, and it matches.

The NO scenario requires a meaningful deviation. Either the measured high falls below 31°C, which would require an unusual coastal breeze or cloud cover effect suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms, or it climbs to 32°C or above, which would require a heat surge beyond what real-time conditions appear to be delivering. Neither condition has found any market support today.

Signals to Monitor

• Any late adjustment to the official temperature reading from the Tel Aviv weather station would immediately reprice the contract, but no adjustment has been flagged.
• A cloud cover event or sea breeze arriving before the daily peak is recorded could push the high below 31°C, but real-time data shows no such disruption.
• Resolution source methodology matters: if the market uses a specific station rather than a city-wide average, micro-location variance could affect the final number.
• The noon UTC resolution cutoff is the last hard stop. No new data enters after that point.
• Thin liquidity means a single large NO bet could move the price, but no such trade has appeared.

Total volume of $41,927 is not a deep market. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the data doesn’t care about the politics, and in this case, it does not care about thin liquidity either. The price has converged to 97 cents because real-time temperature readings have converged to 31°C. The data and the market are in agreement. That alignment is what makes this contract essentially settled.

MARKET CONFIRMED

The 31°C outcome has captured the day’s measured temperature. The intraday price move from $0.35 to $0.97 traces the arc of real-time data arriving and confirming the threshold, not speculative positioning.

What the market says: At 96.6% implied probability, this market has already priced in confirmation. With the resolution cutoff at noon UTC on June 24, the window for repricing is effectively closed.

Key unknown: The only remaining risk is a late revision to the official temperature record, whether the designated resolution source applies a station reading that diverges from the 31°C consensus. That risk is currently priced at 3 cents.