Singapore June 21 High Temp: Will 31°C Hit?

Singapore sits a degree north of the equator, where daily highs cluster in a tight band and a single degree makes or breaks a prediction market bet. The 31°C outcome is priced at 44% heading into tomorrow, down sharply from 56% just two days ago. That drop signals traders are hedging toward cooler outcomes, not because the science changed, but because the atmosphere has its own calendar.

The market question asks: what is the highest temperature in Singapore on June 21, 2026? The 31°C contract trades at $0.44 YES and $0.56 NO. The market resolves June 21 at 12:00 UTC. Total volume sits at $24,694, with $15,193 traded in the last 24 hours.

How the 31°C Contract Works

YES pays out if Singapore’s official recorded daily maximum on June 21 reaches exactly 31°C. The resolution source is the market’s designated data provider, which tracks Singapore’s meteorological readings. NO covers every outcome that is not 31°C, including 30°C, 32°C, and any temperature above or below that mark.

• 31°C (YES): $0.44 per share, implied probability 44%
• All other outcomes (NO): $0.56 per share, implied probability 56%

For NO to pay out, Singapore’s June 21 maximum must land anywhere except 31°C. Singapore’s Meteorological Service records temperatures at Changi Airport and several urban stations. On any given June day in Singapore, the mercury can settle at 30°C, climb to 33°C, or top out at a muggy 34°C depending on cloud cover, afternoon convection, and whether a Sumatra squall rolls through. Exactness is the structural challenge here. The 31°C bin wins only if the daily max lands precisely on that number.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite tells a bearish story for 31°C. The 24-hour price gain of +11% looks bullish on its face, but context matters: the price fell 15% on June 19, then another 7% the same day, and has only partially recovered. The trend score of 47.88 sits below the neutral midpoint of 50, confirming the contract is still in net retreat from its opening position of $0.56.

Total volume of $24,694 is thin. The 24-hour volume of $15,193 represents more than 60% of total market activity, meaning most of the trading action landed in the last day. Liquidity stands at $36,116, which is modest but sufficient for small positions. With total volume well below $1M, a single large trade could move this price sharply before the June 21 resolution deadline.

• The 24h price gain of +11% reflects a partial bounce after a two-leg drop on June 19, not a new bullish trend.
• The trend score of 47.88 confirms net bearish pressure on the 31°C bin since market open.
• Volume concentration in the last 24 hours suggests traders responded to a specific weather signal, likely an updated forecast model run.
• Liquidity at $36,116 is healthy relative to total volume, but thin markets mean price discovery is noisy.
• The 1-hour change of 0.0% shows the market has paused, waiting for the next meteorological input before moving again.

Lines Analysis: Singapore’s June Temperature Range

Singapore’s June climatology is well-documented. The island’s daily maximum in June typically ranges between 29°C and 34°C, with 31°C sitting comfortably in the middle of that distribution. The Meteorological Service of Singapore publishes daily records showing June averages near 31°C to 32°C over the past decade. On that base rate alone, 31°C deserves significant probability mass. The market at 44% is not far from where the raw climatology would put it.

What works against 31°C is the precision problem. Ten competing outcome bins split the probability across a narrow temperature range. Even if 31°C is the single most likely outcome, the combined probability of all other bins is always larger. The market’s 56% NO reflects that arithmetic, not a forecast that tomorrow will be unusually cool or hot. A 32°C outcome, for example, is entirely plausible and would make NO a winner even on a perfectly typical Singapore day.

• Watch the Meteorological Service of Singapore’s 24-hour forecast update for June 21. Any call near 31°C to 32°C will pressure YES higher.
• Afternoon convective activity, common in June, can push the daily maximum above 32°C and drag the 31°C bin lower.
• A Sumatra squall early on June 21 would suppress the afternoon high, potentially shifting probability toward 29°C or 30°C bins.
• Cloud cover data from Singapore Changi Airport weather observations, updated in near real-time, is the single most useful signal before resolution.
• Any forecast revision placing the expected high at 30°C or 32°C would immediately reprice the 31°C contract toward its floor.

With $24,694 in total volume, this market carries limited conviction from either side. The data favors 31°C as the modal outcome on climatological grounds, but the multi-bin structure means NO is structurally advantaged regardless of which specific temperature wins. The honest read is that the market is pricing the distribution correctly: 31°C is most likely among individual outcomes, but not likely enough to beat the field.

LINES VERDICT

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Singapore’s June climatology puts 31°C in its natural range, but the multi-bin market structure means the field collectively outweighs any single outcome. The data doesn’t care about the politics of prediction markets, and here it’s telling us 31°C is the modal guess, not a confident one.

What the market says: At 44% implied probability, the market treats 31°C as the most likely single outcome while still favoring NO overall. With resolution less than 24 hours away, any forecast shift from the Meteorological Service of Singapore will move this price fast on thin volume.

Key unknown: The Meteorological Service of Singapore’s final June 21 forecast, expected in the morning hours before resolution, is the single data point that will reprice this contract. A forecast high of exactly 31°C narrows the spread; anything above or below shifts money to competing bins.