Singapore July 7 High Temperature: 31°C at 36%

Singapore sits two degrees north of the equator. Its daily high temperatures cluster in a narrow band, which makes markets like this one more about measurement precision than dramatic swings. The 31°C outcome is the current leader at 36% implied probability, but that number reflects a competitive field, not a settled call.

The market question asks: what will be the highest temperature recorded in Singapore on July 7? The 31°C outcome prices at $0.36 YES and $0.64 NO, with a July 7 resolution deadline at noon. Total volume stands at $1,854, all of it traded in the last 24 hours.

How the Singapore Temperature Contract Works

This is a multi-outcome market. Traders are picking which temperature bucket, from 25°C or below up to 35°C or higher, matches the official highest reading in Singapore on July 7. The 31°C outcome pays YES if the official high lands exactly at 31°C. Any other recorded high means NO pays out.

• YES ($0.36): The official Singapore high on July 7 falls at exactly 31°C.
• NO ($0.64): The official Singapore high on July 7 lands at any other temperature, from 25°C or below to 35°C or higher.

The NO side wins across a wide range of outcomes. Singapore’s climate sits firmly in the 30°C to 34°C band for daily highs in July. That means outcomes like 32°C, 33°C, or 30°C each carry their own probability weight. The 31°C outcome wins only if the measurement hits that exact level. This structural spread across many buckets is why NO prices at 64% even for the market’s leading outcome.

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Momentum and Market Signals

Momentum is flat. The one-hour price change is 0.0%, and the trend score sits at 37.17, consistent with stable, low-conviction trading. This is a newly opened market with all $1,854 in volume arriving in the last 24 hours.

Liquidity at $48,864 is healthy relative to volume. Total volume of $1,854 is thin. At this level, a single mid-size trade can shift the price meaningfully before new weather data narrows the range. The market is pricing uncertainty across many temperature buckets, not expressing strong conviction about 31°C specifically.

• The 1h price change of 0.0% and stable trend score signal no active repricing in the last hour.
• All $1,854 in volume entered in the last 24 hours, meaning this market opened recently and trader positioning is still forming.
• Liquidity of $48,864 is deep relative to volume, so the order book can absorb new positions without large price swings.
• Singapore’s July climatology centers on daily highs between 31°C and 33°C, which distributes probability mass across several adjacent outcomes.
• No whale trades have been recorded, so no single large position is anchoring the current price.

Lines Analysis: Singapore Climate and the 31°C Outcome

Singapore’s July temperature record is well-documented. The city-state averages daily highs near 31°C to 32°C during the southwest monsoon season, with humidity amplifying the feel but not always the dry-bulb measurement. The 31°C outcome sits at the lower edge of the typical July range, which means it competes with 32°C and 33°C for probability mass. Meteorological Agency Singapore, known as MSS, provides the official readings that resolve this contract.

The 31°C outcome faces structural competition. If July 7 runs warmer than average, as is common during the current climate period, the reading lands at 32°C or 33°C instead. Cooler days, associated with extended cloud cover or rainfall from Sumatra squalls, push the reading toward 30°C. Both scenarios favor NO on the 31°C bucket. The exact 31°C landing requires conditions to fall precisely in the middle of the distribution.

• MSS official daily high data: any update on July 7 or early July readings would directly reprice this market.
• Regional weather models for the Malay Peninsula: a shift toward wetter or drier conditions in the July 5 to 7 window narrows or widens the probable range.
• Sumatra squall activity: afternoon convective storms regularly cap Singapore’s daytime high below 32°C on affected days.
• Regional haze or clear-sky conditions: higher solar radiation days push highs toward 33°C and above.
• MSS seasonal forecast updates: any revision to the July outlook would shift probability across the temperature buckets collectively.

With $1,854 in total volume, this is a thin market. The data favors distributing attention across the 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C outcomes as a cluster, rather than treating any single bucket as a strong standalone position. Singapore’s narrow temperature range is the feature, not a bug, for a market like this. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: July 7 will almost certainly land somewhere between 30°C and 34°C. Which exact degree wins is the real question.

LINES VERDICT

Competitive Multi-Outcome Market, No Dominant Signal

The 31°C outcome leads with 36% implied probability, but Singapore’s July climate distributes daily highs across a three-to-four degree band. No single outcome is dominant at this point.

What the market says: At 36%, the market treats 31°C as the most likely single outcome but assigns a 64% chance to something else. With resolution on July 7 just two days away, any weather model update or early-week Singapore temperature reading could sharply reprice adjacent outcomes.

Key unknown: The official MSS high temperature reading for July 7 is the only data point that matters. Afternoon convective activity and regional cloud cover in the 24 to 48 hours before resolution will be the primary driver of which bucket wins.

Singapore Temperature Market: Scientific Context

Singapore’s climate places it among the most consistent temperature regimes on Earth. The island’s equatorial position means seasonal variation in daily highs is small, typically two to three degrees across the full calendar year. July sits in the southwest monsoon season, which brings afternoon thunderstorms and moderate humidity. Historical MSS data shows July daily highs clustering between 30°C and 34°C, with 31°C and 32°C as common outcomes on days with afternoon convection. The 35°C or higher and 25°C or below outcomes represent extreme tails with minimal probability. Before July 7 resolution, the primary price-moving events are regional weather forecasts issued by MSS and any early-July Singapore temperature data that signals the directional lean of the week.