Singapore July 1 High Temp: 31°C at 31.5%

Singapore’s daily maximum temperature market for July 1 has moved sharply in the past 24 hours, with the 31°C outcome shedding ground and the broader probability distribution flattening across neighboring outcomes. The 31°C contract sits at 31.5% implied probability right now. That is a meaningful drop from where this market opened, and the data behind that move is worth unpacking.

The market question is straightforward: what will the highest recorded temperature in Singapore be on July 1, 2026? The 31°C outcome trades at $0.32 YES and $0.69 NO. The market closes at 12:00 UTC+8 on July 1. Total volume has reached $40,640, with $36,328 of that arriving in the past 24 hours alone.

How the Singapore Temperature Contract Works

This market resolves to whichever temperature outcome matches Singapore’s official daily maximum for July 1, 2026. The resolution source is the market itself, referencing official meteorological data. Each outcome is mutually exclusive. Only one temperature band pays out.

• YES on 31°C pays if Singapore’s official daily high on July 1 is exactly 31°C. Current price: $0.32, implied probability 31.5%.
• The NO side at $0.69 covers every other outcome: 32°C, 30°C, 33°C, 29°C, 34°C, 28°C, 35°C or higher, 27°C, 26°C, and 25°C or below.

A 31°C reading misses when Singapore’s Meteorological Service records a daily maximum that falls in any other band. Singapore’s typical July daily maximum hovers between 30°C and 33°C, with 32°C and 33°C outcomes the most historically common during southwest monsoon season. The 31°C band is competitive but not dominant, which explains why NO commands nearly 70 cents.

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Momentum and Market Signals Ahead of July 1

The momentum composite here is one-directional and meaningful. The 24-hour price change of negative 12.5%, a flat 1-hour reading, and a trend score of 50.14 together signal a market that sold off hard and has now stabilized at a lower level. The most likely driver is fresh weather model data pointing toward a warmer-than-31°C outcome on July 1. Singapore’s Meteorological Service has been tracking an active southwest monsoon pattern, which can push afternoon maximums into the 32°C to 33°C range.

Total volume of $40,640 with $36,328 arriving in 24 hours shows concentrated, last-minute positioning. Liquidity sits at $37,007. Volume below $1 million means this market can reprice sharply on a single large trade or a new forecast model run. Thin books amplify every signal.

• The 24-hour price drop of 12.5% reflects traders rotating away from 31°C toward warmer outcomes, likely 32°C or 33°C.
• The 1-hour flat reading suggests the immediate selling pressure has exhausted itself.
• Trend score of 50.14 places this market at neutral momentum: neither accelerating lower nor recovering.
• Liquidity at $37,007 means a single mid-size bet could move the price meaningfully before close.
• The $36,328 in 24-hour volume relative to $40,640 total signals this market came alive only in the final stretch.

Lines Analysis: Singapore’s July Heat and What the Models Say

Here’s what the measurements are telling us. Singapore’s July climate record shows the daily maximum temperature exceeds 31°C on most days during the southwest monsoon transition. The Meteorological Service of Singapore reports that July averages cluster closer to 32°C for daily highs, with 31°C outcomes representing a cooler-than-typical day rather than the median. A 31.5% probability for exactly 31°C is not unreasonable given that spread, but it does require a specific outcome in a continuous variable.

What makes the NO side real is the width of the competing outcome space. Even if Singapore records a temperature very close to 31°C, the market pays nothing to 31°C holders if the official reading lands at 31.5°C and rounds differently, or if the maximum hits 32°C. The Meteorological Service of Singapore uses standard WMO measurement protocols, and July afternoon convective activity can push readings into the 32°C to 34°C range within hours. That range accounts for the bulk of NO’s 68.5% probability mass.

• Singapore Meteorological Service data for late June and early July 2026 will be the definitive resolution input.
• Any forecast model shift toward a hotter or cooler July 1 afternoon would reprice the 31°C contract immediately.
• Cloud cover and rainfall timing on July 1 are the swing variables: a rainy afternoon suppresses the maximum and shifts probability toward 30°C or 29°C.
• A dry, sunny July 1 afternoon would push probability mass toward 32°C and 33°C, moving further away from 31°C.
• Watch Singapore’s Meteorological Service daily forecast update on the morning of July 1 for the most current signal.

The data doesn’t care about the politics of which outcome traders prefer. Total volume of $40,640 confirms real money has engaged with this market, but thin liquidity means the current 31.5% price reflects a small number of participants. The data as it stands favors the NO side broadly, given the historical distribution of Singapore July maximums above 31°C.

LINES VERDICT

NO FAVORED, OUTCOME WIDE OPEN

The 31°C outcome is competitively priced but faces a wide field of alternatives, and the 24-hour selloff reflects traders correctly weighting Singapore’s July climatology toward warmer readings.

What the market says: At 31.5% implied probability, this market treats 31°C as the single most likely individual outcome while assigning 68.5% to everything else. With less than 24 hours to resolution on July 1, any fresh forecast or model update could reprice every outcome in this field.

Key unknown: Singapore’s morning weather forecast and afternoon cloud cover on July 1 are the single most important inputs. A cloudy, wet afternoon shifts probability toward 30°C or below. A clear afternoon shifts it toward 32°C or above.

Scientific Context: Singapore’s Temperature Distribution in July

Singapore sits near the equator at 1.3°N latitude. July falls within the southwest monsoon season, which typically brings afternoon temperatures between 31°C and 34°C, with rainfall events capable of suppressing the daily maximum. The Meteorological Service of Singapore publishes daily climate summaries that serve as the authoritative source for temperature records. Historical July daily maximum data shows the 32°C and 33°C bands capture the plurality of days, with 31°C representing a below-average maximum for the month. Any event that would move this market before resolution is a forecast change in the afternoon temperature band, driven by updated precipitation or cloud cover modeling.