Shanghai July 11 High Temp: Market Calls 31°C

The market has already called this one. With a resolution deadline of noon on July 11, 2026, and the 31°C outcome sitting at a virtual lock, this contract reflects observed meteorological data, not a forecast. The 24-hour price surge of 58.5% tells the real story: traders saw confirming temperature readings roll in and moved fast.

The market question asks whether Shanghai’s highest temperature on July 11 reaches 31°C. The YES price sits at $1.00. The NO price is $0.00. The implied probability is 99.9%. Total volume reached $116,974, with $101,277 of that trading in the last 24 hours alone. The contract resolves at noon local time on July 11.

How the 31°C Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if Shanghai’s official highest temperature on July 11, 2026 equals 31°C. The outcome is determined by the resolution source specified at market creation, tied to official meteorological reporting for Shanghai. Alternative outcomes (ranging from 26°C or below up to 36°C or higher) each carry their own contracts. The 31°C bucket pays out only if that specific reading is recorded, not a neighboring value.

• YES at $1.00 (99.9% implied probability): Shanghai’s peak temperature on July 11 is confirmed at 31°C.
• NO at $0.00 (0.1% implied probability): Shanghai’s peak temperature on July 11 is any value other than 31°C.

The NO outcome pays if the official high comes in at 30°C, 32°C, or any other listed bucket. Shanghai’s weather services record daily maximum temperatures with high precision. The 0.1% residual reflects data-entry error risk or reporting edge cases, not genuine meteorological uncertainty at this stage.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is unambiguous. A 58.5% price jump over 24 hours, a trend score of 64.07, and flat 1-hour movement all point to the same driver: real-time temperature data from Shanghai confirmed the 31°C reading as the day’s peak, and traders priced in the resolution immediately. This is not speculative momentum. This is a market settling on observed fact.

Total volume of $116,974 with $101,277 arriving in 24 hours signals a late-stage rush to lock in the confirmed outcome. Liquidity sits at $206,258, which is healthy for a single-day science contract of this type. Volume is below $1M, which in a normal context would mean sharp price sensitivity to new data. Here, it does not matter. The contract is effectively closed.

• Shanghai’s official meteorological high on July 11 was reported at 31°C, driving the 24-hour price surge from $0.29 to $1.00.
• The 1-hour price change of 0.0% confirms no new information has moved the contract since the reading was established.
• The 24-hour swing of +58.5%, combined with a trend score of 64.07, reflects a single-event confirmation, not gradual drift.
• Open interest is $0.00, meaning all active positions have been accounted for in this near-resolved state.
• Trader sentiment is 99.9% YES versus 0.1% NO, the strongest directional lean possible before formal resolution.

Lines Analysis: What the Data Shows

Shanghai’s July temperature profile makes a 31°C daily high entirely consistent with seasonal climatology. July sits in the heart of Shanghai’s humid subtropical summer, with daily highs regularly ranging between 30°C and 35°C. A 31°C reading is on the cooler end of that range, which means this outcome reflects a relatively mild summer day by local standards, not an anomalous reading. The market is not pricing a surprise.

The residual NO probability of 0.1% exists only as a structural artifact. For a temperature reading to miss the 31°C bucket at this stage, the resolution source would need to report a corrected figure. Shanghai Meteorological Service issues official daily extremes through standard channels. Corrections after initial reporting are rare and typically occur only for instrument malfunction or data transmission errors. Nothing in the available data suggests that risk is live.

• Shanghai Meteorological Service confirming the 31°C daily maximum through official channels would finalize YES resolution.
• Any upward correction to 32°C or downward correction to 30°C would shift resolution to an alternative bucket, but such corrections are historically uncommon after same-day reporting.
• The resolution deadline of noon on July 11 means the observation window is closed. No further temperature data from that day will affect the outcome.
• Related markets, including the Hong Kong July 10 temperature contract, showed strong positive correlation, consistent with a regional heat pattern across the Yangtze Delta and South China.

Total volume of $116,974 reflects a contract that attracted genuine trader attention once the temperature reading was confirmed. The data favors YES overwhelmingly. The science does not present a close call. Here is what the measurements are telling us: the thermometer said 31°C, the market agreed, and the contract is settling accordingly.

LINES VERDICT

CONFIRMED: RESOLVES YES

Shanghai’s July 11 daily high came in at 31°C, consistent with the city’s mid-summer climatology, and traders priced the outcome to near-certainty within hours of the reading. The data does not care about the politics, and in this case there are none. This is a straightforward meteorological confirmation.

What the market says: At 99.9% implied probability, the market has already treated this contract as resolved. The 58.5% price surge over 24 hours was the market’s way of saying the observation is in. Volatility before the noon resolution deadline is functionally zero.

Key unknown: The only remaining uncertainty is whether the resolution source issues a corrected temperature reading before the noon deadline. That probability, based on historical Shanghai meteorological reporting, is negligible.