Seattle June Twenty-Two High: Eighty-Four to Eighty-Five Leads at Sixty Percent

A single NWS forecast update can reprice a weather market overnight. That is exactly what happened here. The 84-85°F bin for Seattle’s June 22 high temperature jumped 22 percent in the last hour, landing at 59.5 percent implied probability. The data doesn’t care about the politics — a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest is doing the pricing right now.

The market asks: what is the highest temperature recorded in Seattle on June 22? The 84-85°F outcome trades at $0.60 YES and $0.41 NO, with a 59.5% implied probability. The market resolves June 22, 2026. Total volume is $11,797, with all of that volume recorded in the last 24 hours.

How the Eighty-Four to Eighty-Five Degree Contract Works

YES pays out if Seattle’s official high temperature on June 22 falls in the 84-85°F range. NO pays out if the high lands anywhere outside that window — higher or lower. The National Weather Service defines and records the official high at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac), which serves as the standard measurement station for Seattle temperature records.

• YES ($0.60, 59.5% probability): Seattle’s June 22 high registers at 84°F or 85°F at Sea-Tac.
• NO ($0.41, 40.5% probability): The high falls below 84°F or above 85°F — in any other outcome bin.

The NO outcome covers a wide range of alternatives. Ten competing bins exist, from 75°F or below up to 94°F or higher. A forecast that shifts warmer by even two degrees flips this contract to the 86-87°F bin. A morning marine layer or a cooler-than-expected onshore flow could drop the high into the 82-83°F range. NWS Seattle’s forecast precision at 24 hours is typically within plus or minus 3°F for summer highs, which means the adjacent bins carry real probability mass.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here is unusually sharp. A 22 percent 1-hour price gain, a trend score of 82.96, and all $11,797 in volume arriving within the last 24 hours point to one driver: a NWS forecast update published June 21 that locked the expected high into the 84-85°F range. The market is pricing the most recent model run, not historical averages.

Total volume of $11,797 is below the $1 million threshold. That means this market can reprice sharply on a single new forecast update. Liquidity sits at $30,113 — healthy relative to volume — but a revised NWS afternoon forecast or an evening model run showing 86°F or 87°F would quickly push capital into the adjacent bin. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the order book is positioned for 84-85°F, but it is thin enough to move fast.

• The 1-hour price surge of 22 percent connects directly to a new NWS Seattle forecast update, the most likely catalyst given the resolution timeline.
• The 24-hour volume of $11,797 represents the entire market history — this contract opened and repriced within one trading session.
• The trend score of 82.96 reflects strong directional conviction in the 84-85°F range, above what random noise would produce.
• The $30,113 liquidity-to-volume ratio suggests market makers are comfortable with the current pricing but remain exposed to a late-evening forecast revision.
• Adjacent bins — 82-83°F and 86-87°F — represent the two most credible alternative outcomes given NWS forecast uncertainty bands.

Lines Analysis: Seattle, June Twenty-Two

The case for 84-85°F rests on NWS Seattle’s current forecast. Late June ridge events over the Pacific Northwest regularly push Sea-Tac highs into the low-to-mid 80s. Seattle’s average high in late June sits around 72-75°F, so 84-85°F represents roughly 10 degrees above the climatological norm — warm but well within the range of typical summer ridge events. The 2021 heat dome is the extreme outlier in recent memory, not the reference case for this market.

What makes a miss real is the forecasting uncertainty that persists at 24 hours. NWS Seattle typically achieves plus-or-minus 3°F accuracy on summer high temperatures. That uncertainty band spans four outcome bins. If a marine influence strengthens overnight or the ridge axis shifts slightly, the 82-83°F bin absorbs probability directly from 84-85°F. A stronger ridge or a later afternoon peak pushes probability toward 86-87°F. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science — and at this volume level, even a small forecast revision moves the contract.

• NWS Seattle’s next forecast update (typically issued late evening on June 21) is the single most important repricing trigger before resolution.
• GFS and European model agreement on ridge strength will determine whether the 86-87°F or 82-83°F bins absorb probability overnight.
• Sea surface temperatures in Puget Sound affect onshore flow and can suppress afternoon highs by 2-4°F relative to model guidance.
• Smoke or cloud cover from any regional wildfire activity would reduce solar heating and compress the high toward the lower bins.
• Resolution at 12:00 on June 22 may not capture the afternoon peak — if the official high is recorded after noon local time, the resolution methodology becomes a key variable.

The $11,797 in total volume is modest. The directional signal is clear — 84-85°F is the consensus outcome — but the thin book means conviction is fragile. One forecast update pointing to 86°F or 87°F shifts that consensus instantly. The data currently favors the leading bin, but this market resolves on a single number, and single-number weather markets carry irreducible forecast uncertainty right up to observation.

LINES VERDICT

LEADING OUTCOME WITH SIGNIFICANT ADJACENT RISK

The NWS forecast update drove a 22 percent price surge and positioned 84-85°F as the consensus outcome, but thin volume and a 3°F forecast uncertainty band keep adjacent bins in play through resolution.

What the market says: A 59.5% implied probability reflects genuine trader conviction in the 84-85°F range, not certainty. With resolution less than 24 hours away and volume below $1 million, a single forecast revision before June 22 could reprice this contract sharply.

Key unknown: The NWS Seattle late-evening forecast update on June 21 is the decisive data point. A revision to 86°F or 87°F as the expected high would immediately shift market probability to the adjacent bin.