SF High Temp July 8: Will It Hit Sixty-Six to Sixty-Seven?

San Francisco’s weather on July 8 is already priced at near-coin-flip odds for the 66-67°F band. The market has settled at 39.5% for that outcome, meaning traders see it as the single most likely bracket but still far from a lock. Here’s what the measurements are telling us: the Bay Area’s marine layer and afternoon sea breeze make any single two-degree window genuinely uncertain.

The market question asks: what will the highest temperature in San Francisco reach on July 8, 2026? The 66-67°F outcome sits at $0.40 YES and $0.61 NO. The market resolves at noon on July 8. Total volume stands at $3,146, all traded in the last 24 hours. That is thin, and it matters.

How the Sixty-Six to Sixty-Seven Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if San Francisco’s official daily high temperature on July 8 falls within the 66-67°F range. Resolution comes from official weather observation data. The 10 competing brackets span from 57°F or below all the way to 76°F or higher, so the 66-67°F band is competing against nine other outcomes.

• YES ($0.40, 39.5% implied probability): San Francisco records a high of exactly 66°F or 67°F on July 8.
• NO ($0.61, 60.5% implied probability): San Francisco’s high falls anywhere outside that two-degree window, from 65°F and below to 68°F and above.

The NO side pays out whenever the high lands in any of the nine other brackets. That is a wide zone. The 68-69°F bracket and the 64-65°F bracket are the most immediate rivals, and either one shifting even a few degrees takes the whole contract with it. July marine layer strength and onshore wind timing are the direct drivers. A stronger-than-typical marine layer pushes the high toward the low 60s. A weaker push inland nudges it toward 68-70°F.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The trend score of 53.64 is slightly above neutral, and the YES price moved up six percent on July 6. The 1-hour change is flat at 0.0%, suggesting the market has paused after that move. The most likely driver of that July 6 uptick was updated short-range forecasts pointing toward a moderate onshore flow, which tends to keep San Francisco highs in the mid-to-upper 60s rather than pushing into the 70s.

Total volume is $3,146 with $44,285 in liquidity. Volume is well below $1 million. That means this price can move sharply on a single new weather forecast or observation. One updated National Weather Service discussion for the Bay Area could reprice this contract significantly before resolution. Treat the 39.5% probability as directional, not precise.

• The YES price rose six percent on July 6, likely driven by updated forecast models showing moderate marine influence.
• The 1-hour change is flat, signaling the market is holding at current levels while waiting for the next forecast update.
• Liquidity at $44,285 is deep relative to volume, meaning the order book can absorb new information without massive slippage.
• Thin volume below $1M means a single large trade could shift prices meaningfully before the July 8 noon resolution.
• The trader sentiment breakdown leans bearish on this bracket: 60.5% of current positioning says the high lands outside 66-67°F.

Lines Analysis: San Francisco High Temperature

The National Weather Service’s Bay Area forecast model consistently places San Francisco July highs in the 63-70°F range during standard summer conditions. The 66-67°F bracket sits near the center of that historical distribution. A moderate marine layer, the kind typical for early July in San Francisco, supports a high in exactly this range. The data doesn’t care about the politics of weather forecasting: mid-60s is where Bay Area July days most commonly peak when onshore flow is neither unusually strong nor unusually weak.

The 68-69°F bracket is the most immediate threat to this outcome. Warmer-than-typical offshore pressure patterns or a delayed marine layer onset on July 8 would push the high above 67°F. The 64-65°F bracket is the second-most relevant alternative. A stronger, earlier marine layer keeps the high below 66°F. Both scenarios are real. That is why 60.5% of current market positioning sits on NO.

• National Weather Service Bay Area forecast updates: any shift toward stronger or weaker marine layer directly reprices this contract.
• NWS hourly observations at San Francisco International Airport and downtown sensors set the official high for resolution purposes.
• Upper-level ridge strength over the Pacific: a stronger ridge suppresses marine influence and pushes temperatures toward the 70s.
• July 8 morning marine layer depth: a deep, persistent fog burn-off pushes the high later and lower.
• Comparison with July 7 observed high: if July 7 lands at 66-67°F, the market will likely hold near current pricing for July 8.

The $3,146 in total volume is thin for a weather market resolving in under 48 hours. The data favors the 66-67°F bracket as the most likely single outcome, but the nine competing brackets collectively hold 60.5% of market probability. The science here is local microclimate physics. The market is pricing uncertainty, not science.

LINES VERDICT

MOST LIKELY SINGLE BRACKET, NOT A DOMINANT OUTCOME

The 66-67°F band is the single most probable outcome given typical early-July San Francisco marine layer patterns, but nine competing brackets mean this resolves YES less than half the time in expectation.

What the market says: At 39.5% implied probability, the market treats 66-67°F as the leading bracket while leaving most probability mass elsewhere. Thin volume below $1M means this price is volatile and can shift sharply on any updated National Weather Service forecast before the July 8 noon resolution.

Key unknown: The single most important input is the National Weather Service Bay Area forecast discussion issued the morning of July 8, which will set expectations for marine layer burn-off timing and peak afternoon temperature.