SF July 6 High: 66-67°F Leads a Crowded Field

San Francisco’s microclimate makes temperature prediction genuinely hard. The city’s July highs depend on fog burn-off timing, marine layer depth, and afternoon sea breeze strength. Traders have landed on 66-67°F as the most likely peak temperature on July 6, but at 33.5% probability, this is a plurality leader in a very crowded field. The data does not hand anyone a clean answer here.

The market asks: what is the highest temperature in San Francisco on July 6, 2026? The 66-67°F band is priced at $0.34 YES and $0.67 NO, resolving by 12:00 PM on July 6. Total volume sits at $6,983, with all of that traded in the past 24 hours. This market opened and moved fast.

How the 66-67°F Contract Works

A YES outcome pays if San Francisco’s official high temperature on July 6 falls within the 66-67°F range. The resolution source is market resolution, tracking the daily maximum reading at the designated station. Every other temperature band is a competing contract. A NO outcome here pays if the day’s high lands anywhere outside 66-67°F, which covers ten other possible ranges from 55°F or below up to 74°F or higher.

• YES ($0.34): San Francisco peaks between 66°F and 67°F on July 6.
• NO ($0.67): San Francisco’s high falls outside the 66-67°F band, anywhere from below 55°F to above 74°F.

The NO case is structurally strong here, not because 66-67°F is unlikely, but because the probability mass is spread across ten competing bands. The adjacent 68-69°F and 64-65°F ranges each carry meaningful probability. Any forecast nudge of two or three degrees tips volume into a neighboring contract and drains this one.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite tells a clear story. The trend score sits at 40.49, the price dropped 14.5% on July 4, and the 1-hour change is flat at zero. That sequence suggests the market priced in updated forecast data on Independence Day and has since stabilized. No new information has moved this contract in the last hour.

Volume of $6,983 is thin. All of it landed in the past 24 hours, meaning this market is brand new and lightly traded. Liquidity stands at $44,983, which is reasonable relative to volume, but a single large bet or a forecast revision could reprice this contract sharply before resolution. The market is pricing uncertainty, not settled science.

Key Factors

• The 1-hour price change is flat, confirming no new catalyst has entered the market since the July 4 repricing.
• The 24-hour drop of 14.5% likely reflects forecast model updates showing a slightly cooler or warmer lean than the 66-67°F band.
• Total volume of $6,983 flags thin participation. Price can move hard on a single updated forecast.
• Liquidity of $44,983 is healthy for the volume level, suggesting the order book can absorb moderate trades without extreme slippage.
• The 33.5% implied probability reflects a reasonable plurality in a ten-outcome field, not genuine confidence in this specific band.

Lines Analysis: San Francisco July Forecast

San Francisco’s July climate leans cool. The city’s average July high sits around 65-67°F, with marine layer persistence keeping afternoon temperatures in check on most days. The 66-67°F band sits squarely in the historical center of the distribution, which is exactly why traders have concentrated money there. The data supports this range as the modal outcome, not a bold prediction.

The real risk to this contract comes from forecast spread. National Weather Service point forecasts for San Francisco carry meaningful uncertainty even 24 hours out. A stronger sea breeze keeps highs at 64-65°F. A gap in the fog layer before noon could push readings to 68-70°F. Neither outcome would be surprising. The adjacent bands are the competitors, not some extreme tail event.

Signals to Monitor

• National Weather Service San Francisco Area Forecast Discussion: any update tonight or early July 6 morning that revises the high temperature forecast shifts probability mass between adjacent bands.
• Marine layer depth reports: a deep, persistent fog layer suppresses highs into the 62-65°F range and makes NO more likely here.
• Morning temperature readings at SFO or downtown stations: if July 6 opens above 60°F by 8 AM, afternoon highs are more likely to reach 67-70°F.
• Wind shift timing: an early afternoon sea breeze that arrives before 1 PM typically caps SF highs below 67°F. A late or weak sea breeze allows warmer readings.
• Any official NWS advisory or heat statement for the Bay Area would signal a high-end outcome and would move volume into the 70°F+ bands.

Total volume of $6,983 is thin enough that this market should be read as directional sentiment, not a precision forecast instrument. The data favors the 66-67°F band as the modal outcome for a typical San Francisco July day. But typical is doing a lot of work in a city famous for microclimates and fog variability. The adjacent bands are priced for good reason.

LINES VERDICT

MODERATE FAVORITE IN A CROWDED FIELD

The 66-67°F band is the historically grounded choice for a San Francisco July high, but ten competing outcomes dilute confidence. The market is pricing reasonable uncertainty, not a clear signal.

What the market says: At 33.5% implied probability, traders see this band as the most likely single outcome, but only barely. With resolution in less than 48 hours and volume below $10,000, expect sharp price moves on any updated forecast from the National Weather Service.

Key unknown: The National Weather Service forecast update for San Francisco on July 5 or early July 6 morning is the single event that will reprice this contract. Marine layer behavior and sea breeze timing determine whether the high lands in the 64-65°F or 68-69°F band instead.