Will Trump Be Impeached by June 30, 2026?

Traders on Polymarket have essentially closed the book on a Trump impeachment before June 30, 2026. The YES contract sits at 4 cents, implying a roughly one-in-twenty-five shot. That is not a contested market. That is a market where the outcome is already decided in the minds of the people betting real money on it.

The Will Trump Be Impeached by June 30? contract shows $225,867 in total volume, a 24-hour volume of $2,592, and $36,190 in available liquidity as of April 1, 2026. The resolution date is June 30, 2026. Republicans control the House, and an impeachment requires a simple majority there. The math does not currently exist for that majority to form against a sitting Republican president.

How the Trump Impeachment Contract Works

This contract resolves YES if the House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment against President Trump before June 30, 2026. Resolution follows official congressional records. NO resolves if no impeachment vote passes by that date.

• YES: House passes impeachment articles before June 30. Price: $0.04. Probability: 4%. Resolves: June 30, 2026.
• NO: No impeachment passes before June 30. Price: $0.96. Probability: 96%. Resolves: June 30, 2026.

A NO buyer needs Republicans to hold their House majority without a fractious revolt, or Democrats to remain in the minority through June. NO loses only if enough House Republicans break ranks and join Democrats to pass articles. Given current House composition, that requires a historically unusual defection rate among Republican members. Nothing in current congressional behavior points toward that threshold.

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Volume and Liquidity Signal Near-Total Conviction

The momentum composite here tells a consistent story. The 24-hour price change on YES is -0.3%, the 7-day change is -0.6%, and the trend score sits well below 5. That combination signals sustained selling pressure on YES, not a pause or reversal. Traders are not sitting on the fence.

The $225,867 in total volume is meaningful for a contract at 4 cents. It means traders have actively engaged with this market and repeatedly concluded that YES is not worth buying at any premium. The $2,592 in 24-hour volume shows the market remains active, not abandoned. The $36,190 in available liquidity means NO buyers can still get meaningful size on at near-current prices. Together, these figures describe a market where conviction runs deep but trading has not dried up entirely.

KEY FACTORS:

• YES price at $0.04: A 4% implied probability reflects near-unanimous trader rejection of impeachment as a realistic near-term outcome.
• 24-hour YES change of -0.3%: Downward drift on YES continues, consistent with sellers maintaining control heading into Q2 2026.
• 7-day YES change of -0.6%: The weekly trend extends the daily signal. No accumulation of YES is occurring at current prices.
• $225,867 total volume vs. $2,592 in 24 hours: Most conviction capital entered this market earlier. Current flow is thin, suggesting the debate is largely settled.
• $36,190 liquidity: Adequate depth for retail-sized NO positions. Thin enough that any surprise news event could move YES price sharply.

Lines Analysis: Trump Impeachment by June 30

The case for YES rests entirely on a scenario that has no current structural support. Democrats do not control the House. Republican defections at the scale needed for impeachment would require a political crisis of extraordinary magnitude in under 90 days. The 4% price is arguably generous given the legislative math.

The case for NO is straightforward. Republicans hold the House majority. Impeachment requires that majority to fracture. No active impeachment inquiry exists as of April 1, 2026. The 96% NO price reflects the absence of any credible mechanism for the opposite outcome to occur before the June 30 deadline.

SIGNALS TO MONITOR:

• House Republican caucus stability: Any public break from leadership on impeachment language would push YES price higher immediately.
• Democratic procedural moves: Formal impeachment resolutions filed on the House floor, even symbolic ones, historically nudge contract prices.
• Trump approval within Republican base: A sharp drop in base support could loosen Republican member loyalty on impeachment votes.
• Related Senate markets: The 52% probability on Democrats winning the Senate in 2026 has no direct path to impeachment before June 30, but signals broader political environment.
• 24-hour YES volume spikes: A sudden jump from $2,592 daily volume would indicate traders responding to a real development.

The $225,867 in total volume confirms that meaningful capital has priced this contract deliberately. The data favors NO by an overwhelming margin, and the liquidity pattern shows no accumulation on the YES side that would suggest a contrarian thesis gaining traction. Here is what the market is missing: there is almost nothing to miss. The math does not lie, and the math here is one-sided.

LINES VERDICT

NO Holds

Republicans control the House and no impeachment mechanism is active, making a YES resolution before June 30 effectively a tail-risk scenario rather than a genuine contest.

What the market says: A 4% implied probability translates to roughly one chance in twenty-five. With three months remaining before the June 30, 2026 resolution date, that number could move on a shock event, but the current liquidity and volume pattern show no sign of traders positioning for one.