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Congress

Market of the Day

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

$1.1k Volume ↑ 16% today
Aisha Wahab 94% Yes No
Melissa Hernandez 4% Yes No
Wendy Huang 3% Yes No
+4 more
94% Leading
Aisha Wahab 94%
Melissa H… 4%
Wendy Huang 3%
+4 more
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Tony Gonzales charged by June 30?

11% chance

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

120-125m 35%
130m+ 27%

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

11% chance

Blue tsunami in 2026?

42% chance

Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

16% chance

Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

13% chance

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

6% chance

How many Republican Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

2 80%
3 13%

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? 80%
2 42%

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47 28%
51 18%

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

Not Extended & Democratic Party 81%
Not Extended & Republican Party 19%

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Shutdown & Democratic Party 81%
Shutdown & Republican Party 18%