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Finance

Market of the Day
2% Yes chance
Yes 2%
No 98%
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Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Tim Cook – Apple 100%
Sam Altman – OpenAI 13%

AI bubble burst by…?

December 31, 2026 20%
December 31, 2025 0%

Kraken IPO by ___ ?

December 31, 2026 36%
December 31 0%

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by…?

December 31 27%
July 31 4%

Who will acquire TikTok?

Larry Ellison/Oracle 100%
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) 1%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 69%
1 (25 bps) 21%
Moving Now

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by December 31, 2026 54%
1.5T+ 14%

Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026 99%
<200B 0%

Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026 99%
300B+ 0%

Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026 99%
200–250B 1%

Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026 100%
140B+ 0%

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026 99%
<15B 0%

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026 100%
600B+ 0%
Resolved

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16?

0% chance
Resolved

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on June 15?

$290 99%
$285 96%
Resolved

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on June 15?

$735 100%
$720 100%
Resolved

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on June 15?

$370 99%
$380 99%
Resolved

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on June 15?

$80 99%
$81 74%
Resolved

Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on June 15?

$230 99%
$235 98%
Resolved

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 15?

0% chance
Resolved

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15?

99% chance
Resolved

Google (GOOGL) closes above ___ on June 15?

$350 99%
$355 99%
Resolved

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 15?

100% chance
Resolved

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15?

92% chance