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Australia vs Turkiye Prediction (2026 World Cup)

Sport
June 9, 2026
Australia Vs Turkiye

Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. This content is for informational purposes only. Polymarket operates under CFTC oversight. Kalshi holds CFTC-regulated exchange designation. Lines.com may earn affiliate commissions from partner links, per FTC disclosure rules.

Australia vs Turkiye odds open Group D on Sunday, June 14, 2026, at BC Place in Vancouver. Turkiye enters the match as the market favorite. Australia opens as the underdog in the tournament’s tightest group.

Turkiye leads Australia in market-implied probability

Kalshi prices Turkiye at a 56% market-implied win probability versus Australia. Kalshi assigns Australia a 19% win probability in the same market. The implied draw sits at 26% on Kalshi. Bet365 lists Turkiye at -125, with Australia at +350. FanDuel prices Turkiye shorter at -135 for the Vancouver opener.

Group D pairs Australia and Turkiye with the United States and Paraguay. Prediction markets give Turkiye an 80% Group D advancement probability. Australia holds a 48% advancement probability in the same markets. Group D shows the narrowest team spread of any 2026 group.

Vincenzo Montella coaches Turkiye, with Hakan Calhanoglu wearing the captain’s armband. Arda Guler of Real Madrid drives the Turkiye midfield. Kenan Yildiz of Juventus adds attacking threat for Turkiye. Tony Popovic coaches Australia, with goalkeeper Mat Ryan as captain. Turkiye returned to the finals after a 24-year absence.

A Turkiye win would push Turkiye toward a Group D top-two finish. Australia needs points before facing Paraguay and the United States. Group D advancement remains open for all four named teams. A draw would keep both Australia and Turkiye within reach.

Kalshi traders watch Group D for the widest swing in implied odds. An early Turkiye goal would lift the Turkiye win probability. Australia’s set-piece threat poses the main upset risk for Turkiye. Lines.com tracks the Kalshi market and sportsbook lines through kickoff.

Group D ranks as the most balanced section in the 2026 field. The United States opened Group D as the market advancement leader. Turkiye sits just behind the United States in the same market. A Turkiye win would lift Turkiye above Australia in the standings early. Bet365 and FanDuel prices align with the Kalshi Turkiye probability.

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Market data came from Squawka’s match preview and defirate’s World Cup odds tracker. Kalshi supplied the 56% Turkiye market-implied probability. Bet365 and FanDuel supplied the moneyline prices cited above.