Hmdesktop
Daily Briefing · Polymarket

Smart money moved $10M in the last 24 hours.

10 tracked trades, ranked by size. Crowd leans YES 100%. Refreshes daily at 7am ET.

24h volume
$10M
Tracked trades
10
Conviction split
100% Yes 0% No
Top trade
$3M
01

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Biggest Move YES by rdba

A $3M YES position on "US x Iran permanent peace deal" entered. $1.00 is effectively a resolved bet. Wallet rdba paid full price, leaving zero margin for any return above principal. Buying a binary outcome at $1.00 means rdba treated this as a guaranteed settlement, not a speculative trade. The size is striking for a geopolitical market in the General category.

Trade size $3M 29.9% of 24h volume
Entry price $1.00 implied probability
Conviction 100%
#2 YES

Uzbekistan vs. Colombia

by 0x5e4c3b · 14 hours ago

Uzbekistan vs. Colombia drew a $1.5 million YES position from wallet 0x5e4c3b at $0.74. That entry price leaves roughly 26 cents of upside per share if the outcome resolves favorably. The trade sits in the General category, an unusually large commitment for a non-flagship market. Few wallets on Polymarket have deployed seven figures on a matchup of this profile.

Size $1.5M 15.4% of volume
Entry · Conviction $0.74 74%
Polymarket →
#3 YES

England vs. Croatia

by 0x53bed1 · 20 hours ago

England vs. Croatia drew a $1.1M YES wager from wallet 0x53bed1 at an entry price of $0.59. That size is exceptionally large for a General-category market on Polymarket. Wallet 0x53bed1 locked in the position with England as the favored outcome at below-even odds. The $1.1M commitment reflects one of the more aggressive single-outcome bets seen in this matchup category.

Size $1.1M 11.4% of volume
Entry · Conviction $0.59 59%
Polymarket →

The rest of the leaderboard

Positions 4–10, sorted by size.

  1. #4

    US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

    elmcap2 · $1.00 · 18 hours ago

    A $1M YES position at $1.00 entry leaves elmcap2 with zero price upside but full downside exposure. Buying at the ceiling means elmcap2 treated this market as a near-certainty, not a speculative bet. The market title, "US and Iran sign an agreement by...?". Carries a hard deadline that makes timing the dominant risk here. At that size, elmcap2 is essentially holding a binary bond on diplomatic resolution.

    $1M YES
    Polymarket → Read
  2. #5

    Ghana vs. Panama

    0x53bed1 · $0.31 · 17 hours ago

    Ghana vs. Panama drew a $924K YES wager from wallet 0x53bed1 at just $0.31 per share. That entry price reflects deep skepticism in the broader market toward this outcome. Buying nearly a million dollars worth of exposure at that level signals strong conviction from 0x53bed1. Few General-category markets on Polymarket see position sizes approaching this scale.

    $924K YES
    Polymarket → Read
  3. #6

    Fed Decision in June?

    CAR-GangVersion · $1.00 · 21 hours ago

    At $1.00 entry, CAR-GangVersion paid full price for certainty on "Fed Decision in June?" A $719K YES position. That level carries zero margin for a favorable reprice. The Federal Reserve's June meeting was already a scheduled event, making this a near-resolved commitment. CAR-GangVersion locked in $719K with essentially no expected upside beyond the binary payout.

    $719K YES
    Polymarket → Read
  4. #7

    World Cup Winner

    0xe54958 · $0.13 · 1 day ago

    At $0.13 per share, 0xe54958 built a $573K YES position in World Cup Winner. The entry price leaves substantial room for appreciation if the chosen nation advances deep into the tournament. Few General-category markets on Polymarket attract commitments this large this early. 0xe54958 is effectively financing a long-odds futures bet on a single national team's full run.

    $573K YES
    Polymarket → Read
  5. #8

    Portugal vs. DR Congo - More Markets

    0x4c6a21 · $0.55 · 1 day ago

    Portugal vs. DR Congo sits in the General category, making it a cross-sport curiosity on Polymarket. Wallet 0x4c6a21 backed the PORTUGAL outcome for $5,000 at an entry price of $0.55. That price signals the market viewed this as a competitive contest rather than a lopsided affair. The $5K commitment is a meaningful stake for a non-marquee matchup outside the major sports verticals.

    $5K PORTUGAL
    Polymarket →
  6. #9

    England vs. Croatia - More Markets

    0x349606 · $1.00 · 18 hours ago

    At $1.00 entry, 0x349606 paid full price for certainty on an OVER outcome. The wallet committed $355K to the England vs. Croatia - More Markets position, leaving zero margin for a better fill. Buying at max price signals the wallet saw no remaining downside risk. That conviction, backed by $355K, is a notable data point in the General category.

    $355K OVER
    Polymarket → Read
  7. #10

    Portugal vs. DR Congo

    Latina · $0.65 · 21 hours ago

    Portugal vs. DR Congo drew a $275K YES wager from wallet Latina at $0.65. General-category international matchups rarely attract six-figure positions, making this bet a clear outlier in the category. Latina's entry price of $0.65 leaves meaningful room for the market to move before resolution. The position size alone signals strong conviction on a Portuguese victory.

    $275K YES
    Polymarket →