How Many Ships Transit Hormuz Week of May 11?

The Strait of Hormuz is pricing in a disruption that hasn’t fully materialized yet. With 54% of market capital behind a sub-20 transit count for the week of May 11, traders are betting that the world’s most critical oil chokepoint stays suppressed well below its historical baseline. That’s a meaningful call given the related market for the week of May 4 resolved at 85% confidence for a low-traffic outcome, and the April 27 week closed at near-certainty.

This contract on Polymarket asks a specific question: how many container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships does IMF Portwatch record transiting the Strait of Hormuz between May 11 and May 17, 2026? The current price of $0.54 on the under-20 outcome reflects a market that sees Iranian tensions and regional posture keeping traffic near historic lows. The resolution date is May 17, 2026, with IMF Portwatch as the sole data source.

How the Strait of Hormuz Transit Contract Works

This contract resolves based on the total transit call count IMF Portwatch publishes for the Strait of Hormuz across all seven days from May 11 through May 17, 2026. IMF Portwatch tracks vessel movements by ship type and publishes both chart data and downloadable files. The contract resolves as soon as data for May 17 appears, or within 14 days of that date if publication is delayed.

• Under 20 transits (YES): $0.54, implying 54% probability that weekly ship traffic stays below 20 vessels.
• 20-39 transits: A separate outcome bracket covering modest recovery in traffic.
• 40-59 transits: Mid-range recovery, consistent with partial normalization.
• 60-79 transits: Substantial recovery toward pre-disruption levels.
• 80+ transits: Full normalization or above-baseline traffic.

The under-20 outcome fails to pay when traffic recovers into any higher bracket. That recovery depends on a clear de-escalation signal between Iran and the United States, a reduction in Houthi interdiction activity in the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden corridor, or a diplomatic development that removes the threat premium suppressing commercial shipping decisions. The math doesn’t lie: every week this contract has resolved since late April, low traffic has been the winning call.

Market Signals and What the Price Move Means

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The momentum composite here is worth reading carefully. The 1-hour change is flat at 0.0%, the 24-hour change is positive at 4.0%, and the trend score sits at 33.46, which is well below the midpoint. That combination points to a market that saw a burst of buying pressure in the last 24 hours but lacks sustained conviction. The 4-point move likely tracks the absence of any credible Iran-US diplomatic breakthrough in the first week of May, keeping the low-traffic thesis intact for another week.

Total volume on this contract is $1,181, with $892 of that trading in the last 24 hours. Liquidity sits at $17,880. Here’s what the market is missing: thin volume at this level means a single large position can shift the price materially. The 24-hour volume spike relative to total volume suggests this market is still being discovered, not yet settled. Treat the 54% figure as directionally informative, not precisely calibrated.

• The under-20 outcome has resolved as the winning bracket in each of the prior three weeks, establishing a strong base rate for continued disruption.
• IMF Portwatch data for the April 27 week resolved at 98% confidence, and the May 4 week is pricing at 85%, showing a slight but real widening of uncertainty as the calendar advances.
• The average end-of-April Hormuz traffic market settled at 97%, while the end-of-May average sits at just 42%, signaling the market expects some recovery but not yet in the May 11 window.
• The 1-hour flat reading after a 4-point 24-hour gain suggests buying momentum is stalling, consistent with a trend score below 40.
• The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market for end of April resolved at 0%, confirming no recovery occurred through April.

Lines Analysis: Iran Posture, IMF Data, and the May Window

The case for the under-20 outcome rests on a pattern that has now held for at least three consecutive weeks. Iranian naval posture in the Persian Gulf has not meaningfully de-escalated through early May 2026. Commercial shipping operators have been rerouting tankers and dry bulk carriers away from the strait, absorbing higher costs via Cape of Good Hope diversions rather than accept the insurance and security premium attached to Hormuz transits. That behavioral shift takes weeks to reverse even after a diplomatic signal arrives.

The scenario that breaks this pattern requires more than a statement. Iran and the United States would need a verifiable agreement, not just a negotiating session, to shift shipper behavior before May 17. The end-of-May average market pricing at 42% for a normal traffic level suggests traders expect recovery eventually, but the May 11 week sits before that inflection. Talks stall or produce ambiguous language, and commercial operators stay on diversion routes through the resolution date.

• Any verified Iran-US agreement on nuclear or maritime security terms before May 14 would push the 20-39 and higher brackets and pull capital from the under-20 outcome.
• A Houthi attack on a Hormuz-transiting vessel between May 11 and May 17 would reinforce the under-20 thesis and likely push the price above 60%.
• IMF Portwatch data revisions published before the final date count toward resolution, so a correction to earlier weeks could reset market expectations on baseline counts.
• The end-of-May normalization market at 42% is the most important correlated signal: it implies recovery starts somewhere in the second half of May, not the first.
• A sudden drop in oil futures prices suggesting demand destruction rather than supply disruption would weaken the premium thesis and complicate the under-20 read.

With $1,181 in total volume, this market is small. The directional signal still favors the under-20 outcome given three consecutive weeks of confirmed low traffic, a 24-hour price move that reflects no fresh diplomatic catalyst, and correlated markets that place normalization later in May at best. The end-of-May average at 42% is the clearest signal that the market sees recovery as real but not yet here.

LINES VERDICT

Under Twenty Ships: Pattern Holds Through May Seventeen

Three consecutive weeks of sub-20 transits, no verified Iran-US agreement, and a correlated normalization market that prices recovery into late May rather than early May all point the same direction. The disruption thesis has earned its 54% price.

What the market says: A 54% probability that Hormuz ship traffic stays below 20 vessels for the week of May 11 reflects a thin but consistent advantage for the low-traffic outcome heading into the May 17 resolution date. Any verified diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the United States before May 14 is the primary volatility event to watch.

Strait of Hormuz Context: Disruption, Diversion, and the IMF Data Trail

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and carries roughly 20% of global oil supply under normal conditions. IMF Portwatch, the resolution source for this contract, tracks transit calls by vessel type and publishes data with a short lag. The disruption now reflected in three consecutive weeks of sub-20 transit counts represents a historic departure from the strait’s normal throughput.

Commercial operators began diverting tankers and bulk carriers in late 2024 and into 2025 in response to Iranian naval activity and Houthi interdiction risks in the broader Red Sea corridor. Insurance premiums for Hormuz transits rose sharply, making Cape of Good Hope diversions economically preferable for many operators despite the longer voyage. That structural shift in routing behavior is the mechanism behind the consistent low-transit readings IMF Portwatch has recorded.

Before May 17, two developments could move this contract. A credible and verifiable Iran-US diplomatic agreement that explicitly addresses maritime security would be the strongest catalyst for a shift into higher traffic brackets. Alternatively, a publicized restart of Hormuz transits by a major state-owned oil company such as Saudi Aramco or ADNOC would signal that the threat premium has dropped enough to justify direct routing. Neither has occurred as of May 9, 2026.

FAQ

• What does 54% mean here? A $0.54 price on the under-20 outcome means the market assigns a 54% probability that IMF Portwatch records fewer than 20 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz between May 11 and May 17, 2026.
• What pays out if the under-20 outcome loses? If IMF Portwatch records 20 or more transits in the May 11-17 window, the under-20 contract expires worthless. Capital would have been better placed in the 20-39 or higher brackets depending on the actual count.
• What moves the price before resolution? Verified Iran-US diplomatic developments, Houthi activity in the Gulf corridor, IMF Portwatch data releases for earlier days in the window, and correlated market price movements on the end-of-May average contract are the primary catalysts.
• When and how does this contract resolve? Resolution occurs as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes data for May 17, 2026, or within 14 days of that date if publication is delayed. IMF Portwatch is the sole resolution source.
• Is the $1,181 volume reliable? Total volume of $1,181 is thin. The $17,880 liquidity figure means the order book has depth, but low trading volume increases the risk that the 54% price reflects limited market participation rather than broad consensus.