World Cup Group C Last Place Prediction June 7

The prediction market gives Haiti an 80.5 percent chance of finishing last in World Cup 2026 Group C. That number has ticked upward over the past 24 hours, reflecting steady conviction that Haiti struggles to compete against Brazil, Morocco, and Scotland. The signal is clear: bettors see Haiti as the group’s weakest side by a significant margin.

Group C features four nations with vastly different World Cup pedigree. Brazil is a four-time champion. Morocco reached the 2022 semifinal. Scotland returns to the World Cup for the first time since 1998. Haiti makes its second-ever World Cup appearance. With group play ending July 20, 2026, the total market volume sits at $1,357 across all outcomes.

How Group C Last Place Resolves: Haiti vs. The Field

The last-place finish goes to the team with the fewest points after three group-stage matches. Haiti enters at 80.5 percent. Scotland sits as the next closest alternative at a distant probability. Brazil and Morocco carry near-zero chances of finishing bottom.

• Haiti: 80.5% probability of Group C last place
• Scotland: Second most likely to finish bottom
• Morocco: Strong 2022 semifinalist, minimal last-place risk
• Brazil: Four-time champion, negligible last-place probability

Scotland provides the main path for this market to resolve differently. Les Grenadiers open against Scotland on June 14. A Haiti win that day would immediately shift the calculus. But Scotland’s competitive European football infrastructure gives them a clear edge over Haiti in head-to-head play.

Market Signals and Form: Haiti Holds Firm at the Bottom

Momentum points steadily toward Haiti as last-place finisher. The 24-hour price movement shows a one-percent gain for the Haiti last-place outcome. The trend score of 25.38 suggests moderate directional conviction without extreme volatility. Traders have not found a reason to move off Haiti as the group’s weakest side.

Volume tells a specific story here. The market recorded $1,148 in 24-hour volume against total lifetime volume of $1,357. Nearly all trading activity concentrated in the most recent day. Liquidity stands at $86,183, providing deep order book support for the current 80.5 percent price. That depth signals the market can absorb new information without dramatic swings.

The spread and totals lines for Haiti’s individual matches reflect similar pessimism about their competitive ceiling in this group.

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Lines Analysis: Haiti Last Place in Group C

The case for Haiti finishing last rests on raw quality gaps. Head coach Sebastien Migne leads a squad built almost entirely on diaspora talent. Key midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde provides technical quality. But the roster’s average age of 24 and limited top-level international experience creates a steep climb against Brazil and Morocco specifically. Haiti’s three opponents combine for hundreds of World Cup appearances and multiple deep tournament runs.

Scotland represents the legitimate alternative scenario. Steve Clarke’s side returns to the World Cup after a 28-year absence, carrying significant pressure and rust at this stage. Scotland’s recent Nations League and qualifying form showed inconsistency. A poor start against Brazil, combined with a loss to Haiti, would thrust Scotland into genuine last-place danger. The market prices that path at roughly 20 percent combined across all non-Haiti outcomes.

• Haiti vs. Scotland (June 14): Result determines early market direction
• Haiti squad depth: Thin bench against three physically and technically superior sides
• Scotland’s pressure: First World Cup since 1998 creates psychological weight
• Brazil and Morocco quality: Both capable of high-scoring wins over Haiti
• Goal differential: Could separate Haiti and Scotland if points finish level

The $1,357 total volume reflects a niche but decisive market. Traders who moved $1,148 in a single day clearly see Haiti’s last-place odds as fairly priced at 80.5 percent. The depth of liquidity confirms this is not a thin, easily manipulated market. The signal holds.

LINES VERDICT

Haiti

Haiti enters Group C as the least experienced side against three opponents with proven World Cup quality. The market’s conviction reflects the depth of that gap.

Who is favored to finish last in Group C?

Haiti is the heavy favorite to finish last, carrying an 80.5 percent implied probability on the prediction market as of June 7, 2026.

What does the spread mean for Haiti’s individual matches?

Haiti enters each group match as a significant underdog against Brazil, Morocco, and Scotland. Spread lines reflect the quality gap between Haiti and the other three Group C nations.

When does Group C play?

Group C opens June 13 with Brazil vs. Morocco. Scotland faces Haiti on June 14. Group play concludes before the July 20 market resolution date.

What is the over/under total for Haiti matches?

Haiti matches carry elevated over/under totals, reflecting their opponents’ attacking quality and Haiti’s limited defensive experience at this level.

Where can I trade this market?

The World Cup Group C Last Place market trades on Polymarket with $86,183 in liquidity and $1,357 in total volume recorded through June 7, 2026.