UFC 329: Garbrandt vs. Yanez Prediction July 11

The Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez prediction at UFC 329 favors the YES outcome on Over 1.5 Rounds, the Polymarket leader at 56 percent heading into International Fight Week. Both fighters carry heavy hands and a shared history of violent, fight-of-the-night performances, which gives the finish-inside-round-one scenario real teeth — but the market says the action runs past the 1.5-round mark more often than not.

Momentum on this market has been steady, with the YES side gaining 2.5 percent over the last 24 hours while holding flat in the last hour. The trend score of 24.04 confirms a market that has warmed gradually and settled into conviction rather than spiking on noise. The total volume of $2,121 is modest for an International Fight Week card, but the liquidity pool of $22,148 is deep enough to support meaningful moves ahead of the July 11 bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

How the Garbrandt vs. Yanez Market Resolves

The primary market here is the Over/Under 1.5 Rounds in this bantamweight prelim. YES resolves at 56 percent and pays out if the fight extends past the 1.5-round mark — meaning it goes past the halfway point of Round 2. The NO outcome resolves at 44 percent and pays out if either fighter finishes the other before that threshold, whether by KO, TKO, or submission.

• YES (Over 1.5 Rounds): 56%
• NO (Under 1.5 Rounds): 44%

The NO path carries real weight. Cody Garbrandt owns 11 KO/TKO victories in his career, and Adrian Yanez ran off five straight UFC finishes to open his promotional career. Both fighters have been stopped themselves, meaning a fast finish in either direction is genuinely in play. The market’s narrow YES edge reflects that reality.

Market Signals and Form

The momentum composite reads as a steady build rather than a sharp spike. YES added 2.5 percent over 24 hours while the last hour showed no change, and the trend score of 24.04 reflects a market moving with quiet confidence rather than late breaking news driving it. No major injury reports have emerged from either camp, which likely explains the calm drift toward YES.

The $22,148 liquidity pool dwarfs the $2,121 total volume, giving the market capacity to absorb large moves without price distortion. With $1,149 trading in the last 24 hours, volume is picking up as fight week closes in.

Related Polymarket markets in this fight cluster include Yanez to win by KO/TKO, Garbrandt to win by KO/TKO, Fight to Go the Distance, and O/U 0.5 and 2.5 Rounds. The cross-market correlation with the World Cup Winner market is moderate and negative, reflecting no meaningful structural link.

• YES momentum composite: up 2.5% over 24 hours, flat last hour, trend score 24.04 — a settled build, not a spike
• Garbrandt form: Garbrandt is 15-7 overall, 10-7 in the UFC, with a unanimous decision win over Xiao Long at UFC 326 in March 2026
• Yanez form: Yanez is 17-6-1 overall, 6-3-1 in the UFC, coming off a majority draw against Ricky Simon at UFC Seattle in March 2026
• Fight week context: UFC 329 is the annual International Fight Week card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 11, 2026
• Volume signal: $22,148 liquidity with only $2,121 total volume points to significant room for late-market positioning

Lines Analysis: Garbrandt vs. Yanez Over/Under

The YES side at 56 percent makes sense when you consider Garbrandt’s recent form. Cody Garbrandt paced himself through three rounds against Xiao Long in March, showing a patient, measured approach. A Garbrandt who controls tempo past the early minutes makes YES the more likely outcome.

The NO side at 44 percent reflects the very real possibility that one of the most explosive strikers in the division — Yanez — lands something clean in the first round and a half. Adrian Yanez went 1-3-1 in his last five fights, which includes a draw and real adversity, but Yanez built his reputation as a man who ends fights quickly. His five-fight finish streak to open his UFC career is not ancient history, and any bettor taking NO is banking on that version of Yanez showing up early.

• Watch: Any confirmed injury news from either camp before July 11 that could affect pace or durability
• Watch: Yanez’s weight cut — a clean cut could mean a fresher, more explosive Yanez in the early minutes
• Watch: Whether Garbrandt’s corner emphasizes movement and volume over early aggression, which would push the fight past 1.5 rounds
• Watch: YES volume accelerating significantly ahead of fight week as the prelim slot draws attention

The $2,121 lifetime volume is modest, but the market’s directional read has stayed consistent. YES has held majority support, and Garbrandt’s recent pacing plus Yanez’s recent inability to finish early both support the lean.

LINES VERDICT

YES — OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

Garbrandt’s measured approach since returning to bantamweight, combined with Yanez entering off a draw rather than a dominant finish, makes the over the cleaner market position heading into UFC International Fight Week.