How is the Smart Money Index calculated?

We aggregate the live positions of the top 50 Polymarket whales (ranked by 30-day tracked volume) into one composite reading per market. It refreshes every hour. The percentage shows how many of those whales hold YES versus NO; the net dollar position shows the cohort's directional exposure in dollars.

What is a convergence signal?

A convergence event fires when three or more tracked wallets buy the same outcome on the same market within a four-hour window. We surface these in the activity feed and the VIP digest.

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No. Lines is an editorial and data product. We do not operate prediction markets, custody funds, or accept trades. All trade flows deep-link to Polymarket via our affiliate code. Probabilities shown are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations.

Prediction Page

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Market called it correctly

Implied 100% at publication · Resolved YES · Brier score: 0.00

See full track record

SS Steve Silverman Sport Expert

Market Resolved

Updated April 25, 2026 1 min read

Resolution Verdict

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER Market Resolved

Oklahoma City Thunder: Championship pedigree and elite roster construction make them the clear choice to advance. Market probability: 91.8%.

Resolved

Largest Trade

$126,827

Trustinghorse

voted with: YES

Apr 28, 2026 at 4:15am

Trader	Rank	Amount	Position	Volume	PnL	ROI	Time
Trustinghorse	-	$126,827	YES	$474.5K	-	-	Apr 28, 2026
idonknow	#1,657,025	$75,123	YES	$1.9K	-$265	-14.2%	Apr 28, 2026
11122	#1,652,403	$91,972	YES	$26.0K	-$2.2K	-8.4%	Apr 28, 2026
08AF	#1,913	$30,427	YES	$0	+$751	-	Apr 25, 2026
gmpm	-	$46,883	YES	$0	-	-	Apr 19, 2026
gmpm	-	$45,315	YES	$0	-	-	Apr 19, 2026
08AF	#1,913	$29,973	YES	$0	+$751	-	Apr 18, 2026

Final Price 100%

Settled May 3, 2026

Duration 19 days

Resolution Analysis

Thunder Cruise to the Semis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dominates from game one. OKC's defensive system smothers their opponent and limits transition opportunities. The Thunder advance in five games or fewer, fully confirming the 91.8 percent market consensus and sending a warning to the rest of the bracket.

Injury Forces a Longer Series

A Gilgeous-Alexander elbow flare-up or a key rotational absence opens the door for their opponent. Oklahoma City drops two early games and the market probability retreats sharply. The Thunder survive, but questions follow them into the second round.

OKC Rallies After a Slow Start

Oklahoma City drops the first two games, rattling bettor confidence below 80 percent. Daigneault makes sharp rotational adjustments. SGA takes over in games three through five and the Thunder close out the series before it reaches seven games.

Historic Upset Reshapes the West

The 8.2 percent alternative scenario materializes. OKC's opponent strings together elite perimeter shooting nights and the Thunder stall in back-to-back closeout attempts. A first-round exit would rank among the biggest upsets in recent playoff history and instantly collapse the market price.

Key macro factor: OKC's championship core from 2025 remains intact and battle-tested entering the 2026 postseason as the team most equipped to handle bracket adversity.

Market Timeline

Apr 13, 2026, 3:59 PM

Market Created

Apr 13, 2026, 4:30 PM

Event Start

Apr 13, 2026, 4:34 PM

Market Opened

May 3, 2026

Market Resolution

Market Comments

Whale activity on this market

Biggest trades lifetime

Trustinghorse YES

$127K at 100¢ 2 months ago
11122 YES

$92K at 100¢ 2 months ago
idonknow YES

$75K at 100¢ 2 months ago
gmpm YES

$47K at 93¢ 3 months ago
gmpm YES

$45K at 92¢ 3 months ago
08AF YES

$3K at 86¢ 2 months ago

See all whale activity

Disclaimer

Probabilities are market-implied and not predictions or recommendations. Smart Money Index aggregates positions from the top Polymarket whales by 30-day volume. Lines is not a market operator and does not custody funds. Outbound links may be affiliate links.