The Death of Robin Hood RT Score Market

The Death of Robin Hood arrives at a curious moment for the Rotten Tomatoes prediction market. The contract pricing a 60-plus score sits at 91.5% implied probability, meaning traders have already treated the threshold as close to settled. Here’s what the precursors are telling us: the 24-hour price dip of 3.6 percentage points is the only real crack in an otherwise dominant position. That modest retreat deserves watching, especially with reviews still pending or fragmenting.

The market question asks whether The Death of Robin Hood will earn a Rotten Tomatoes score of 60 or higher by June 22, 2026. YES contracts trade at $0.92. NO contracts sit at $0.09. Total volume is a slim $513, with $196 traded in the last 24 hours and $315 in liquidity. This is a thin market by any standard, which means a single batch of critical reviews can move price sharply before the resolution date.

How the Robin Hood RT Contract Works

The contract resolves YES if The Death of Robin Hood holds a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 60 or above at the market close on June 22, 2026. A score below 60 resolves NO. Rotten Tomatoes aggregates published reviews from approved critics, and the score updates in real time as new reviews post.

• YES ($0.92, ~92% probability): The Death of Robin Hood holds a 60-plus critics score through June 22.
• NO ($0.09, ~8% probability): The film’s score falls or settles below 60 by the resolution date.

A NO outcome requires The Death of Robin Hood to accumulate enough negative reviews to drag its aggregate below the 60 threshold. Early reviews can skew scores dramatically when critic counts are low. A film sitting at 65 on 20 reviews can drop below 60 with a handful of fresh pans. That is the specific mechanic making this contract non-trivial even at 92%.

Momentum and Market Signals

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The momentum composite here tells a slightly uncomfortable story. The 1-hour change is flat at zero, but the 24-hour drop of 3.6 percentage points against a trend score of 18.73 suggests traders are reassessing rather than confirming. The most likely driver is new reviews entering the Rotten Tomatoes database, shifting the perceived trajectory of the aggregate score. When a market this thin moves 3-plus points in a day, volume is probably the culprit as much as news.

Total volume of $513 is well below the threshold for high-conviction market signals. With $196 in 24-hour volume and $315 in liquidity, this contract can move dramatically on a single large trade or a single influential critical outlet posting a review. Thin liquidity means the current 92% price reflects a small number of traders, not broad market consensus.

• YES ($0.92) via Polymarket, as of June 11, 2026
• NO ($0.09) via Polymarket, as of June 11, 2026

Key Factors:

• The Death of Robin Hood trades at 92% probability for a 60-plus RT score, reflecting current critical sentiment as reviews aggregate.
• The 24-hour price decline of 3.6 percentage points is the single most important short-term signal, suggesting incremental bearish pressure from new reviews or repositioning.
• Volume below $1M means price can shift sharply on any material review batch before the June 22 resolution date.
• The 1-hour change of zero percent indicates the 24-hour drift has stabilized temporarily rather than accelerated.
• Related entertainment markets on Polymarket show no direct correlation to this contract’s performance, isolating the RT score as the sole driver here.

Lines Analysis: The Death of Robin Hood and the 60 Threshold

The market has already made up its mind at 92%, but what supports that conviction? A film needs broad critical acceptance, not universal praise, to clear 60 on Rotten Tomatoes. The 60 threshold is genuinely achievable for a wide range of films, from middling action pictures to ambitious historical dramas. If The Death of Robin Hood has received predominantly fresh notices from early reviewers, the current price reflects a comfortable buffer above the line. The historical pattern for prestige-adjacent action titles with period settings skews toward scores in the 60-to-75 range when they perform competently.

The Death of Robin Hood faces its real challenge from a thin review count. If fewer than 40 critics have weighed in before June 22, each new negative review carries outsized mathematical weight. A streak of mixed-to-negative notices from late-reviewing outlets could push the score toward 55 to 59. That is the scenario the NO contract is pricing at 8%: not catastrophic failure, but a quiet collapse of the aggregate as niche or contrarian voices enter the pool.

Signals to Monitor:

• New Rotten Tomatoes reviews from major outlets posting before June 22 carry the highest repricing potential for this contract.
• The total critic count on Rotten Tomatoes matters as much as individual scores. A low tomatometer count amplifies volatility.
• Any viral negative reaction from genre-specific or historically-minded critics could shift audience and critic framing quickly.
• The 24-hour volume of $196 suggests active repositioning. Watching whether YES holds above $0.90 over the next 48 hours is a useful signal.

The total volume of $513 limits the reliability of this market as a pure information signal. The 92% implied probability aligns with a cautiously optimistic critical picture, but a thin review pool means the data favors YES without guaranteeing it.

LINES VERDICT

Cautious Favorite

The Death of Robin Hood holds a dominant market position, but thin volume and a live 24-hour drift make this contract less settled than the headline number suggests. The market has largely made up its mind, but the reviews haven’t finished arriving.

What the market says: At 91.5% implied probability, traders expect The Death of Robin Hood to clear 60 on Rotten Tomatoes. With under $600 total volume and a June 22 resolution, price remains sensitive to any significant review batch before the deadline.

Key unknown: The single most important factor is the current Rotten Tomatoes critic count for The Death of Robin Hood. A low sample size means the score is mathematically vulnerable to a handful of fresh negative reviews, which is exactly the scenario keeping the NO contract alive at 8%.

Industry Context

Rotten Tomatoes score markets tend to price efficiently once a film has 30 or more reviews in the database. Below that threshold, scores can swing 10 or more points on a single day’s reviews. The 60 threshold is a meaningful cut line: it separates films that receive general trade-press coverage as a modest success from those tagged as disappointments regardless of box office. For a title with a historical or mythological framing like The Death of Robin Hood, genre critics and mainstream outlets can diverge sharply. That divergence is the structural risk embedded in the NO contract here.

What would move price before June 22: A large platform review from a Rotten Tomatoes top critic posting below 60 could push the aggregate down and reprice the NO contract. Conversely, a surge of positive notices from wide-release weekend reviewers would push YES back toward $0.95 or higher.

Will The Death of Robin Hood score above sixty on Rotten Tomatoes?

The market prices this at 92%, meaning traders believe the threshold is nearly certain. That probability reflects current critical momentum, not a completed score. Prediction market probabilities shift as reviews accumulate, and thin liquidity means each new notice carries more weight here than in a deeper contract.

What does a NO contract mean here?

Buying NO means wagering that The Death of Robin Hood finishes below 60 on Rotten Tomatoes by June 22. That requires enough negative reviews to pull the aggregate under the threshold. At $0.09, the NO contract implies roughly an 8% chance of that outcome.

What would reprice this contract significantly?

A wave of mixed or negative reviews from major outlets posting in the days before June 22 is the single most likely repricing event. Rotten Tomatoes scores for wide-release films can move three to seven points in 24 hours during active review cycles.

When does this contract resolve?

The contract resolves on June 22, 2026. The resolution source is the Rotten Tomatoes critics score for The Death of Robin Hood as of that date.

How reliable is the volume signal here?

Total volume of $513 and $315 in liquidity are below the threshold for high-confidence market signals. Price can move sharply on limited trading activity. Treat the 92% probability as directionally informative, not statistically robust.