Scary Movie 2nd Weekend: Can It Hold Above $17M?

The opening weekend numbers landed, and the prediction market moved fast. Scary Movie‘s second-weekend contract jumped more than 26 percent in the past 24 hours, repricing the probability of a greater-than-$17 million sophomore frame to 88 percent. That kind of single-day swing does not happen without a concrete data catalyst. The industry has already made up its mind.

The market question asks whether Scary Movie earns more than $17 million in its second domestic weekend. The YES contract trades at $0.88. The NO contract sits at $0.12. The contract resolves June 15, 2026. Total volume stands at $689.

How the Scary Movie Second-Weekend Contract Works

This is a single-outcome box office contract. YES pays out if Scary Movie‘s domestic gross in its second weekend of release exceeds $17 million, as reported by the standard industry tracking source used for resolution. NO covers every other scenario, including the 16-17m, 15-16m, 14-15m, and below-$14 million brackets. The contract resolves June 15, 2026.

• YES (greater than $17 million): $0.88 per share, 88% implied probability
• NO (any other bracket): $0.12 per share, 12% implied probability

A NO outcome requires Scary Movie to fall below $17 million in weekend two. Comedy-horror hybrids in this franchise range historically drop between 40 and 55 percent from opening to second weekend. If the opening weekend cleared roughly $30 million or more, the $17 million threshold becomes a soft floor rather than a ceiling. The 26-percent price surge on June 11 points directly at an opening weekend result that cleared that implied range comfortably.

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Momentum and Market Signals

The momentum composite here tells one clear story. The contract opened at $0.50 and held there until June 10, when it jumped six percent. June 11 added another 19 percent before a further 10.5-point move the same day. That sequential repricing pattern matches exactly how box office contracts move when opening weekend actuals come in above model. The trend score of 31.15 reflects sustained directional conviction, not a single speculative spike.

Total volume sits at $689, with $406 of that trading in the past 24 hours. Liquidity is $11,521. The volume figure is very thin. Thin volume means a single large trade or a late-breaking tracking update can move this price sharply before June 15. The liquidity cushion is healthy relative to volume, which limits slippage, but the thin trading history means this market reflects a small number of participants repricing on the same catalyst.

Key Factors

• Scary Movie saw its YES contract surge 26.5 percent in 24 hours, the sharpest single-day move in its history, tied directly to opening weekend box office results entering the market.
• The 1-hour price change is flat at 0.0 percent, suggesting the immediate repricing has stabilized and traders are waiting for the next data point.
• Franchise context matters: the Scary Movie series historically performs well in repeat viewership over multi-week runs, which buffers second-weekend declines for returning fans.
• The $17 million threshold represents the most aggressive bracket in a five-outcome market, meaning the market is not just predicting a hold, it is predicting a strong hold.
• The June 15 resolution date leaves roughly four days of exposure, with Sunday’s final weekend gross as the decisive data point.

Lines Analysis: Scary Movie Second Weekend

Scary Movie‘s contract repriced this aggressively because the opening weekend almost certainly cleared a level that makes $17 million-plus in week two look like the base case. Here’s what the precursors are telling us: when a comedy-horror title opens big in June, it rides word-of-mouth and date-night traffic through the following weekend before the summer calendar gets crowded. The 88-percent market consensus is pricing exactly that pattern.

The danger to YES is a faster-than-expected audience drop. Comedy sequels and franchise revivals sometimes see sharper second-weekend cliffs when opening-weekend overperformance is driven by nostalgia audiences who front-load their attendance. If the competitive June release calendar brought in a new wide release this weekend, Scary Movie could see a 55-percent-plus drop that lands below $17 million even from a strong open. That is the 12-percent scenario the market is still leaving on the table.

Signals to Monitor

• Sunday evening box office estimates from industry trackers: the final weekend gross either confirms the threshold or triggers a late reprice before June 15 close.
• New wide releases entering the June 13-15 frame: any major studio opener competing for the same multiplex screens compresses Scary Movie‘s available showtimes and deepens the drop.
• Social media audience score trajectory: declining audience scores between opening and second weekend signal a word-of-mouth cliff rather than a hold.
• CinemaScore or PostTrak audience grades: a B+ or better historically correlates with second-weekend holds above 45 percent of the opening frame.
• International box office performance: strong overseas results can signal global brand durability that correlates with domestic holdover patterns.

With $689 in total volume, this is a low-liquidity market. The 88-percent YES price reflects a small group of informed traders repricing on opening weekend data. The data favors YES, but thin volume means a single negative data point, a surprise new release, or a tracking miss could move the price dramatically before Sunday’s close.

LINES VERDICT

STRONG YES LEAN

Scary Movie‘s contract jumped to 88 percent on the back of opening weekend results that almost certainly set a strong enough baseline to clear $17 million in week two. The market has already made up its mind, and the repricing was too sharp and too sequential to be speculative noise.

What the market says: An 88% implied probability translates to strong consensus that Scary Movie holds above $17 million in weekend two. The contract resolves June 15, 2026, with Sunday’s box office estimates as the final trigger. Thin volume means this price can shift sharply if a surprise result emerges before close.

Key unknown: The single most important data point is Sunday’s official or estimated second-weekend domestic gross. If tracking data ahead of the official report suggests a drop steeper than 45 percent from opening, the YES price will compress quickly in the final hours before June 15 resolution.

Industry Context

The Scary Movie franchise debuted in 2000 and built its identity on parody of contemporary horror releases. Second-weekend performance for comedy-horror titles depends heavily on whether the opening audience was front-loaded or broad. Front-loaded openings, driven by franchise nostalgia or preview buzz, tend to see steeper drops. Broad openings, built on general audience appeal and strong word-of-mouth, hold better. The market’s 88-percent conviction on the $17 million threshold suggests traders read the opening as the latter. The franchise’s brand recognition in June, historically a strong month for comedy releases, supports that read.

What moves price before June 15: Any tracking estimate, industry report, or Sunday afternoon box office projection that puts the weekend gross below $17 million will reprice this contract immediately. The liquidity is there to absorb a move. The volume history suggests a small number of participants are watching this closely.

Is an 88% probability accurate for a box office contract?

An 88% probability means the market assigns roughly a one-in-nine chance that Scary Movie misses the $17 million threshold. That reflects strong confidence based on opening weekend results, not certainty. Box office can miss estimates by several million dollars.

What does the NO contract represent?

NO pays out if Scary Movie earns $17 million or less in its second weekend, covering all lower brackets including 16-17m, 15-16m, 14-15m, and below $14 million. At $0.12, the market prices that combined scenario at 12%.

What single event would move this price most?

Sunday’s official or estimated domestic gross is the decisive event. A gross above $17 million pushes YES toward 95-plus percent. A gross below $16 million reprices the contract sharply toward NO.

When does this contract resolve?

The contract resolves June 15, 2026, at 12:00 PM. Sunday’s box office estimates typically circulate by Sunday evening, meaning the market will reprice before formal resolution.

How reliable is the volume and liquidity data here?

Total volume of $689 is very thin. The $11,521 in liquidity is healthy relative to that volume, which limits large price swings from individual trades. But thin volume markets can move sharply on a single new trade or data point before resolution.