US-Iran Deal Text: June 30 Release Favored at 92%

The US-Iran nuclear agreement has moved from framework to near-finalization, and the only open question now is timing. Prediction markets assign a 91.5% probability that the full deal text becomes public by June 30 — a date that sits one day before this contract’s resolution. The market’s conviction on this date reflects a sharp repricing that began June 15, when the implied probability jumped more than 44 percentage points in a single session.

The market question asks which date the US-Iran deal text is officially released. The June 30 outcome trades at $0.92. Alternative dates — June 19, June 17, and June 16 — each trade well below $0.10. Total volume stands at $29,642, with the full amount placed within the last 24 hours. The contract resolves July 1, 2026.

How the US-Iran Deal Text Contract Works

This contract resolves YES for the June 30 outcome if the official text of the US-Iran nuclear or peace agreement is publicly released on or by June 30, 2026. The resolution source is market resolution, meaning Polymarket administrators confirm the release date using official government announcements or verified news coverage. Traders holding the June 30 contract collect if the document drops before midnight on that date.

• June 30 (YES): $0.92 — 91.5% implied probability
• June 19: trades below $0.05 — near-zero probability
• June 17: trades below $0.05 — near-zero probability
• June 16: trades below $0.05 — near-zero probability

The earlier date outcomes lose if the deal text is not released on those specific calendar dates. June 16 and June 17 have already passed as of the writing date of June 16. If the official document fails to appear by June 30 — due to a last-minute diplomatic breakdown, legal review delays, or a decision by either government to hold the text — the June 30 contract pays nothing and capital rotates toward a later-date outcome not currently listed.

Market Signals: Momentum Points to a Settled Timeline

The momentum composite is strongly bullish. The trend score registers 18.18 — a high-conviction reading — while the 1-hour price change holds flat at 0.0%, indicating the market has absorbed the June 15 catalyst and found equilibrium near the ceiling. That June 15 surge, a 44.5-point single-session move, followed credible reports that US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi completed a final-stage review of deal language. The market priced that development immediately.

Total volume of $29,642 with all of it placed in the last 24 hours signals a market that activated on a specific catalyst, not gradual drift. Liquidity stands at $131,116, meaning the order book can absorb meaningful new positions without significant price movement. For a contract priced this close to $1.00, that depth matters: it tells us the current price is not a thin-book artifact.

• The June 30 contract holds at $0.92 after absorbing a full day of post-catalyst trading — price stability at this level reflects settled conviction, not residual momentum.
• The 1-hour change of 0.0% combined with a trend score of 18.18 signals that buying pressure has plateaued, not reversed — the market is not fading.
• The 24-hour volume matching total volume confirms this market activated entirely on the June 15 breakthrough news.
• Related market: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…? trades at 100% — meaning the broader agreement itself is already confirmed; this contract prices only the document release timing.
• The Iranian regime fall market at 1% confirms the Islamic Republic government remains the counterparty — no leadership disruption threatens the deal’s administrative continuity.

Lines Analysis: What June 30 Needs, and Where It Could Break

The case for June 30 rests on a straightforward chain of events. The US-Iran permanent peace deal market prices at 99%, meaning the agreement itself is essentially confirmed. The agreement/ceasefire extension market sits at 100%. Both signal that the substantive negotiation is finished. What remains is the formal release of legal text — a bureaucratic step, not a political one. Iranian and American administrations both have incentives to publish the document before July 1: Iran seeks sanctions relief that requires a published text, and the US administration wants a visible deliverable before the quarter closes.

The 8.5% probability assigned to failure does not reflect a competing date — it reflects genuine tail risk. The deal text could be withheld if either government faces a domestic political crisis before June 30. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains a variable: the Netanyahu market trades at 65% to be out of office, creating uncertainty about Israeli responses to a published Iran deal text. A military incident involving Israeli forces and Iranian proxies could prompt either government to delay publication. Last-minute disagreements over specific treaty language — particularly on uranium enrichment thresholds or inspection protocols — could push the release past the June 30 deadline even if both parties remain committed to the agreement.

• Abbas Araghchi’s public statements on final-stage language review would confirm the text is in legal formatting — watch for Iranian Foreign Ministry press conferences before June 28.
• Steve Witkoff’s travel schedule to Vienna or Geneva would signal active document finalization — any confirmed diplomatic trip before June 30 strengthens the leading outcome.
• Israeli military activity near Iranian-aligned positions in Syria or Lebanon could disrupt the release timeline and push this contract’s price down sharply.
• UN Security Council briefings on the deal’s verification framework, if scheduled before July 1, would confirm both governments are ready to publish.
• Iranian parliamentary statements opposing specific deal terms could signal a last-minute internal delay — monitor the Majlis through June 29.

The $29,642 in total volume is modest for a geopolitical contract, but the $131,116 order book depth provides price legitimacy. The data aligns with the June 30 outcome: a confirmed agreement, strong momentum, a deep order book, and a timeline anchored by both governments’ political incentives. The 8.5% assigned to failure prices genuine tail risk, not a competing scenario with real traction.

LINES VERDICT

June Thirty Text Release

The underlying agreement is confirmed at effectively 100% across related markets. The only unresolved question is the document’s publication date, and the market has settled on June 30 with high conviction after a catalyst-driven repricing on June 15.

What the market says: 91.5% probability that the US-Iran deal text is publicly released by June 30 — a settled, high-confidence position with meaningful but manageable tail risk as the July 1 resolution date closes in.

Geopolitical Context: The Road to a Published Text

The US-Iran negotiating track accelerated through spring 2026, with Oman serving as the primary intermediary channel. Steve Witkoff led the US delegation through multiple rounds that addressed enrichment caps, IAEA inspection protocols, and phased sanctions relief. Abbas Araghchi managed the Iranian side, navigating both Supreme Leader approval requirements and factional resistance within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The framework reached in those rounds is what the 99% peace deal market is pricing — the published text is the final formal step.

Iran’s core demand throughout negotiations was front-loaded sanctions relief tied to document publication. That structure means Iran has a financial incentive to push the text out before June 30, not after. The US administration faces its own calendar pressure: a published deal text before quarter-end reinforces the diplomatic track record ahead of any congressional review period. Both governments’ incentives converge on speed, not delay.

The Netanyahu factor introduces the primary external risk. A published US-Iran deal text commits Washington to a specific agreement that Israel has publicly criticized. If Israeli military operations escalate before June 30 — particularly any strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure — the US administration may pause publication to manage alliance dynamics. That scenario, low-probability but real, is where the 8.5% lives. Before July 1, the key event to monitor is any emergency US-Israel consultations or a National Security Council statement on Israeli military posture toward Iran.

What moves this market before July 1: An official White House or State Department announcement of a text release date pushes this contract toward $0.98. An Israeli military incident involving Iranian targets before June 28 could drop the contract to $0.65 or below. Silence from both governments through June 28 holds the current price range steady.

What is the 91.5% probability telling me?

The market assigns roughly nine-in-ten odds that the US-Iran deal text becomes public by June 30. The related agreement market at 100% confirms the deal exists. This contract prices only the publication date.

What happens if the text is not released by June 30?

The June 30 contract pays nothing. Capital would shift toward a later-date outcome, though none currently listed in this market. Traders holding June 30 absorb a full loss on their position.

What would move this market dramatically before July 1?

An Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear sites, a leadership crisis in Tehran, or a last-minute US congressional hold on the agreement could suppress publication and reprice the June 30 contract sharply downward within hours.

When does this contract resolve and who decides?

The contract resolves July 1, 2026. Polymarket administrators confirm the resolution using official government announcements and verified news coverage of the deal text’s public release date.

Is the $29,642 volume enough to trust this market’s price?

Volume is modest, but the $131,116 order book depth is substantial. The full trading volume arrived in one session on June 15, driven by a specific catalyst. The price reflects an informed single-session repricing, not sustained thin-market drift.