Trump out as President by July 31?

The prediction market on Donald Trump leaving the presidency by July 31, 2026, has rendered its verdict. At 1.3% implied probability, this contract is not a live debate. The market treats removal as a near-statistical impossibility within the next five weeks.

This contract asks whether Trump will be out as president before July 31, 2026. YES trades at $0.01, NO trades at $0.99, and total volume sits at $2,167 with the resolution date set for July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM.

How the Trump Removal Contract Works

YES resolves at $1.00 if Trump is no longer serving as U.S. president before the end date, through any mechanism: impeachment and Senate conviction, the 25th Amendment process, resignation, or death in office. NO resolves at $1.00 if Trump is still serving on July 31, 2026. Resolution follows market determination based on publicly confirmed outcomes.

• YES ($0.01): Trump is no longer president before July 31, 2026. Implied probability: 1.3%.
• NO ($0.99): Trump continues serving as president through July 31, 2026. Implied probability: 98.7%.

The trailing outcome requires a sequence of events with no current precedent in U.S. history. The House would need to pass articles of impeachment with Republican support. The Senate would then need a two-thirds supermajority to convict. Alternatively, the vice president and a cabinet majority would need to invoke the 25th Amendment. None of those conditions exist today.

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Market Signals: Consensus Without Doubt

The momentum composite on this contract reads deeply bearish for YES. The 1-hour change of -0.2% combined with a trend score of 25.67 signals steady selling pressure on the YES side. No single political catalyst explains the drift. The market is simply pricing in institutional reality: Trump holds his office, and no credible removal pathway is active as of late June 2026.

Total 24-hour volume matches total volume at $2,167, a thin-traded contract. Liquidity of $38,165 far exceeds the volume traded. That ratio signals strong NO-side depth with no meaningful challenge from YES buyers.

Key Factors

• YES price sits at $0.01, reflecting a 1.3% implied probability. The 1-hour change of -0.2% and trend score of 25.67 confirm continued selling pressure on the YES side.
• Republicans hold the House majority. No Republican-led impeachment resolution has reached a floor vote in the 119th Congress.
• The Senate requires 67 votes to convict. Democrats hold 47 seats. Removal is arithmetically blocked without an unprecedented Republican defection wave.
• Trump’s approval rating stands at 36% in the June 2026 NPR/PBS Marist poll, his second-term low. Low approval does not translate to removal. The constitutional bar is far higher than public opinion.
• Market liquidity of $38,165 against $2,167 in volume reflects deep, uncontested NO-side conviction.

Lines Analysis: Why This Market Has No Real Contest

Trump holds every structural advantage a sitting president can hold. Republican leadership in the House has shown no appetite for impeachment proceedings despite multiple filed resolutions in 2025 and 2026. The math for Senate conviction requires 20 Republican votes to flip. The math doesn’t lie: that threshold has never been crossed in U.S. history, and no public signal suggests it is close now.

The alternative closes this gap only through catastrophic, sudden political rupture. A criminal conviction alone does not trigger removal. Even a scandal severe enough to break Republican unity in the House still leaves a Senate conviction requiring two-thirds. The specific condition that shifts this market would be a publicly announced cabinet vote to invoke the 25th Amendment, which requires the vice president’s leadership. JD Vance has given no indication of that intent.

Signals to Monitor

• Any Republican House member publicly supporting impeachment articles signals YES pressure, though conviction odds remain near zero without Senate math changing.
• A 25th Amendment move would require JD Vance to announce cabinet support publicly. Any such statement would spike YES dramatically from $0.01.
• Trump health news that raises incapacity questions could briefly move YES, but would require confirmed, verified reporting to sustain any price lift.
• Congressional vote counts on any impeachment resolution indicate whether the House floor vote is even possible before July 31.
• Related markets like the Netanyahu removal contract at 48% and Venezuela leadership at 78% show this contract sits at the floor of comparable political removal markets globally.

Total volume of $2,167 is thin. The data favors NO overwhelmingly. The 98.7% NO probability is not a close call. It reflects a constitutional structure that makes mid-term presidential removal functionally impossible without bipartisan collapse that shows no signs of forming by July 31.

LINES VERDICT

Trump Serves Through July

No removal pathway exists within the five-week window. Republican congressional majorities, the Senate two-thirds conviction bar, and zero 25th Amendment signals make YES a symbolic position, not a live wager.

What the market says: At 1.3% implied probability, the market has priced Trump’s continued presidency as a near-certainty. Volatility risk is negligible before the July 31 resolution date unless a historic, sudden political rupture materializes.