NFL
February 10, 2022

Super Bowl LVI Betting Guide

We are getting closer and closer watching the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI

The Super Bowl is fun for a lot of reasons. First of all, it is the grandest stage of football, and secondly, it is the biggest gambling day of the year. If you can name it, you can probably bet on it during the Super Bowl. I am getting excited just writing this out. 

Naturally, that means we are here to give you the very best gambling breakdown of the Super Bowl so you can head into work Monday with bragging rights and some straight cash, homie. From the spread to who will take home the Super Bowl MVP this year, we have got you covered. I have been monitoring the board every day over the last two weeks, and I have come out with some juicy plays that will make you a rich man (maybe).

With all of that being said, let's take a look at the best bets for Super Bowl LVI.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread: Rams -4 | Total: 48.5 | ML: Rams -198, Bengals +166

GAMBLING TRENDS

*Via Odds Shark

  • The Rams are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games
  • The Rams are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the Bengals
  • The Bengals have covered in seven straight games
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five games for the Bengals
  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight games between the Rams and Bengals

The Bengals finished the season with a 13-7 record ATS, and during their 6-1 stretch to end the season, they covered in all seven games. On the other side, the Rams finished with a 10-10 record ATS, are 2-1 ATS this postseason, with their lone loss coming on the hook in a three-point win over the 49ers.

As at least four-point favorites this season, the Rams are 4-6 ATS while the Bengals are 4-0 ATS when at least a four-point underdog. 

Why The Rams Can Cover

Under Stafford, the Rams are ranked sixth in scoring, second in yards per pass, and fifth in passing yards per game. It also helps that Cooper Kupp decided to become the best receiver you have ever seen, and the Rams basically added Odell Beckham Jr. for free.

While Sony Michel was serviceable this season as the primary back with Cam Akers out, the return of the second-year star has given the Rams an extra layer of versatility that an overperforming Bengals' defense will not have a counter for. 

Defensively, the Rams are solid, but that secondary has gotten torched at times. Losing John Johnson and Troy Hill to the Browns in the offseason did not help, and with Jordan Fuller out, the Rams are relying on old-man Eric Weddle to hold it down. That is scary, and he will have his hands full in this game, but he has been fairly solid throughout the postseason run. 

However, one of the reasons that I love this Rams' defense is that they have superstar talent on every level. With Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd, and Jalen Ramsey, the Bengals are going to have to get creative. Just letting your speedsters run downfield and throwing bombs all game is not going to cut it.

Why The Bengals Can Cover

At this point, there is nothing that would surprise me when it comes to the Bengals. Not only has Joe Burrow blossomed into the franchise quarterback the Bengals have been dying for, but his former LSU teammate, Ja'Marr Chase, has been as good as advertised. While Chase has been sensational in his rookie season, Tee Higgins quietly put up a 1,000-yard season, and over the last two playoff games against the Titans and Chiefs, Higgins is averaging 99.5 yards on 6.5 receptions. 

The Bengals' defense would scare me if I were a Cincinnati fan, especially at linebacker. Although Logan Wilson has been a monster this season, they are very thin because of injuries. The defense has given up 371 yards per game this postseason, which is slightly higher than their regular season numbers, which had them ranked 20th in the NFL, but all those yards do not mean anything unless the opposing team scores.

Cincinnati was ranked 13th in the NFL in points allowed, and in the postseason, the Bengals are only allowing 19.6 points per game, with only the Chiefs scoring over 20 points.

The defense has stepped up, and Burrow has completed 68.8% of his passes for 280.6 yards per game this postseason. While Burrow led the NFL in yards per pass (8.7), the Bengals will be most successful in the short-to-intermediate game.

Los Angeles is ranked 31st in opponents' QBR on passes between the numbers. Like the Bengals, the Rams have a weak-ish linebacking core, so I would watch for Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon to cause some damage in the passing game as Chase and Higgins are streaking downfield. 

Spread

The Rams are just 5-5 ATS at SoFi this season including the playoffs, but in their five wins ATS at home, they are covering by an average of 12 points. Although the Bengals are a whopping 8-2 ATS on the road this season, they had one of the worst road SOS in the NFL. 

Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh, Detriot, Baltimore, Las Vegas, and Denver on the road this season. That is not exactly a "hard" stretch of teams, but we cannot ignore the 8-2 ATS on the road. Normally, these numbers would not matter for the Super Bowl, but with the game being played in Los Angeles, the Rams will certainly have a home-field advantage, and these trends matter.

At the end of the day, both teams have elite playmakers on both sides of the ball, but they are also flawed. The fact that Burrow has been sacked 51 times in the regular season, and 12 times in the postseason is wildly concerning with Donald and Miller on the other side of the ball. 

This game is going to be decided by one position group breaking down on either side. Whether it is the offensive line, linebackers, or special teams, one unit is going to lose this game; that's how talented both teams are. If I had to put money on it, which I am, I would bet on the Bengals' offensive line having a hard time containing a nasty Rams' front seven. 

Pick: Rams -4 (-112)

Total

In the Rams' 20 games this season, the over has hit 10 times while in the same amount of games for the Bengals, the over has only hit eight times. When the total is set at 48.5 or higher, the total has gone over in four of 11 for the Rams and twice in eight games for the Bengals. 

Both offenses feature explosive playmakers, and both the Rams and Bengals finished the regular season in the top 10 in scoring. In the playoffs, the Rams are putting up 28 points per game, and the Bengals are scoring 24 points per game. Although the Bengals have not lit up the scoreboard this postseason, they can score multiple touchdowns in a snap. 

This game has all the makings of a shootout, which usually makes me fade the over, but it's the Super Bowl man, we need some points. After last year's clunker of a game, we deserve action, we deserve fun, and that is exactly what we are going to get. I have a hard time believing either defense will be dominant enough to slow down these electric offenses. 

Pick: Over 48.5 (-110)

Game Props

While betting on the spread and total is the most popular form of gambling, Super Bowl props always have a lot of value. I do not think I need to give that long of an intro for my props, so let's just get into the fun. 

Tyler Boyd Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Despite playing in the Super Bowl, the Bengals' offensive line is still a mess, and with Donald staring them right in the face, they need to get the ball out quickly. Higgins and Chase get the majority of their production down the field. On the season, Chase is ranked fourth in yards per catch (17.2) and Higgins is ranked 19th (14.8) while Boyd is ranked 74th (11.6). 

He has not come close to eclipsing this total in the playoffs, but this is a very favorable matchup for this number. The Rams' defense is ranked 31st in QBR on passes in between the numbers, and that is where Boyd will thrive.

Joe Burrow Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Rams' front seven is among the best in the league, and that will force Cincinnati to abandon the run, which shouldn't be that much of an issue considering that they are ranked 19th in rush play percentage.

Cincinnati only threw the ball 33.2 times per game during the regular season, but if you are like me and think the Rams will win, Burrow is going to have to make some magic. A couple of deep connections with Chase and Higgins should put us in a good spot to go over this number. 

Odell Beckham Jr. Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

You are going to find out here shortly, but I think OBJ is going to be the star of this game. Cincinnati is also not great in the short-to-intermediate passing game, and Beckham is at his best when you give him the ball on short routes and let him create some magic. 

There is no chance the Bengals are just going to sit back and let Kupp beat them deep every time, so that opens up the middle of the field, and if anyone can cook in that area, it is Beckham. 

Joe Mixon Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Mixon has only hit this number once this postseason, and over his last eight games, he is averaging 58 rushing yards per game. As I said earlier, the Rams' front seven is as nasty as they come. They are ranked fourth in yards per rush, fifth in rushing yards per game, and they are only allowing 54 rushing yards per game this postseason. 

The leading rushers are only gaining 35 yards per game this postseason on the Rams, and I do not see the Bengals as the team to break through this defense. 

Same Game Parlay Odds: (+783)

Super Bowl MVP: Odell Beckham Jr. (+2700)

I already said that I think OBJ is going to have a monster game, so why not throw a little sprinkle on his MVP odds. At +2700, they are too good to pass up. 

If you think the Bengals are going to win, Chase's MVP odds currently sit at +2500, just an FYI. 

Photo: Getty Images