San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: NFL Wild Card Best Prop, Team Bets
There is simply no debate about the best matchup of Super Wild Card Weekend.
The San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys will be renewing their storied rivalry in Texas and meet for the first time in the postseason since the 1994 season.
As it did so often during the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, this matchup should capture the imagination of the entire country but, given how even the two teams appear to be on paper, it is a potential nightmare for bettors to try to call.
So, what are the best bets available as these two historic foes do battle? We've run through the different markets and picked five selections for this potential classic.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
49ers +3 (-105)
Let's start with the spread, which has not moved since the Cowboys opened as three-point favorites at the beginning of the week. Essentially, the bookmakers believe this would be a pick-em were the game to be played on a neutral field, and the lack of movement suggests bettors agree.
The respective performances against the opposition who made the postseason indicate the Niners are well-placed to cover and threaten the upset. Dallas went 3-4 against playoff teams in the regular season, but two of those wins came against division rivals the Philadelphia Eagles, who qualified as the seventh seed in the NFC and rested starters in their Week 18 encounter.
San Francisco went 4-4 versus playoff teams. Two of those losses were to the Arizona Cardinals while the other two saw them beaten on last-second field goals by the top-seeded Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans in two and three-point defeats respectively.
Save for their displays against the Cardinals, the 49ers excelled against playoff teams and went 7-2 over their last nine games after the second loss to Arizona in Week 9 behind a potent and efficient offense and a consistently improving defense that does a superb job of pressuring with its front four. Back an extremely well-rounded football team to take this one to the wire.
OVER 51 (-110)
The total is an extremely difficult one to call. These teams have identical records in that regard with the under hitting in nine of their 17 games.
With the Cowboys' offense failing to fire on all cylinders except for encounters with the Washington Football Team and Philadelphia's backups, Dallas has gone under the point total in four of the last six games.
San Francisco, meanwhile, hit this exact number in the dramatic 27-24 comeback win over the Los Angeles Rams that sealed a place in the postseason.
The best way to approach this, though, is to look at the average points per game for each team. Dallas led the league in the regular season with 31.2 points per game while the Niners averaged 25.1. In other words, both teams possess offenses who can rise to the challenge of delivering in the pressure cooker of the postseason. Trust them to do so and go with the over.
Deebo Samuel To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+425)
In the search for value bets in this game you need look no further than Deebo Samuel, the undisputed talisman of the 49er offense.
He catches passes and takes hand-offs and does both with devastating success, and last week he even threw a touchdown pass.
With six receiving touchdowns and eight rushing scores, Samuel was one of the most valuable offensive players in the NFL in the regular season and will be central to San Francisco's potential success here.
He only had three multiple-score games during the regular season but, between his role in the offense and the price, this is a bet too tempting to pass up.
Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 252.5 Passing Yards (-115)
You might expect faith in Jimmy Garoppolo to be higher after he spectacularly rose to the task of leading the Niners back in Los Angeles, authoring a superb late touchdown drive to force overtime. The fact it doesn't give bettors the chance to take advantage of a bizarrely low over-under.
Garoppolo averaged 254 passing yards per game in the regular season even with San Francisco's heavy emphasis on the run game.
He threw for over 290 yards in four of his last five games and, while Dallas' defense should pose him plenty of problems, Garoppolo has enough surrounding talent on an offense that ended the regular season sixth in Expected Points Added per play, per rbsdm.com, to continue that streak.
Amari Cooper Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165)
CeeDee Lamb has arguably grown into Dak Prescott's favorite target during the 2021 campaign but recent form points to Amari Cooper being Dallas' most prominent scoring threat through the air.
Cooper has scored a touchdown in three of his last five games while Lamb has not found the endzone since his two-touchdown effort against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10.
With an average depth of target of 11 yards this season, Cooper will hope to find joy against a secondary that can be susceptible to the long ball.
Even with 49ers rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas showing improvements of late, logic dictates that, as long as Dallas can keep Prescott upright regularly enough, he will have success connecting with his primary receiving weapons at some point in this game. Cooper, therefore, represents a strong value play to find the endzone.
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