December 9, 2021

Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings: 4 Best 'Thursday Night Football' Prop, Team Bets

Week 14 of the NFL season kicks off tonight in Minnesota as the Steelers will take on the Vikings. 

Tonight, the Vikings are shorthanded, but they are surprisingly the favorite. Even after losing to the Lions, the Vikings are getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers tonight. 

On the other hand, the Steelers just came off a big-time win against the Ravens last week, and they just refuse to fade away this season. 

As always, we are back with the best props of the night as well as the best overall bet of the night. If you decided to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly. 

Let's pick out some winners. 

FanDuel: Ben Roethlisberger Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Vikings' pass defense is not great, but it is certainly better than their defense against the run. On the season, the Vikings are ranked 29th in rushing yards allowed, 23rd in rushes per game, and 31st in yards per rush. We will talk more about that run defense later. 

Over the last three games, Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 39.6 pass attempts per game, but he is averaging 257.3 yards per game. That would cash the over on this prop, but he will likely not have to throw the ball that many times tonight. He has gone under this number five times this season, and the Steelers are 4-1 in those games. 

The running game is going to get some work tonight, especially if the Steelers grab an early lead. The Vikings are without some key contributors on offense tonight, so if the Steelers can grab an early lead, even if it comes from the arm of Roethlisberger, they should establish the run later on in the game, and keep this prop under the number. 

Barstool: Najee Harris Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-118)

This total seems very low, even with Najee Harris being a little banged up. There was a stretch earlier in the season where Harris went over this number in five-straight games. In those games, the Steelers went 4-0-1. The formula for the Steelers is right in front of them, and they went back to that last week against the Ravens as Harris had 21 carries. 

Harris is way too inconsistent to look at his rushing yards prop, but part of that is due to a terrible Steelers offensive line. The good news is that we do not care about how many yards Harris gains tonight. He could rush for 20 yards on 19 carries, I won't care unless this prop does not hit. 

On the season, Harris is averaging 18.1 carries per game. Going up against a terrible run defense, Harris should see a lot of action tonight. 

DraftKings: Touchdown Scorer Of The Night: Diontae Johnson (+120)

Diontae Johnson is quietly having a monster season for the Steelers. Johnson has 76 receptions for 914 yards and six touchdowns on 120 targets this season. The touchdown scorer prop does not look great tonight, but the Vikings have given up the third-most touchdowns to receivers this season, and they are ranked 21st in total touchdowns allowed per game. 

While I think the Steelers will establish the run tonight, Johnson has been putting up huge numbers over the last three weeks. Although the Steelers are 1-2 in that stretch, Johnson is averaging eight receptions for 100.3 receiving yards and one touchdown on 12.6 targets per game. At some point, the Vikings are going to get burned, and Johnson has been the man for Pittsburgh this season. 

Bovada: Best Bet: Steelers ML (+145)

This is an interesting line, and it kind of makes me nervous. The Vikings will be without Adam Thielen, Christian Darrisaw, and possibly Dalvin Cook tonight. Without them, the Vikings have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Outside of Jefferson, who has been a monster this season, nothing about this offense scares me. 

At first, the +3.5 point spread was very promising, especially since the Vikings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19, and 0-5 ATS in their last five December games. However, I truly think the Steelers are going to win tonight, and I just cannot pass up +145 value. 

Pittsburgh has also won four out of their last five matchups against the Vikings, and Minnesota just lost to the Lions. There has to be something to this line that Vegas isn't telling us. But screw 'em, we are taking the Steelers. 

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