December 10, 2021

Corrigan's Gambling Corner: 5 NFL Best Bets For Week 14

Week 14 of the NFL season started off with a wild "Thursday Night Football" matchup between the Vikings and Steelers

Hopefully, that carries over into this weekend's slate of games as we are back with our five favorite bets. The board has some questionable lines, and I am a believer in sticking to your guns and not being influenced by the public. 

Good luck to everyone this weekend with your bets, and if you tail our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly. 

Let's pick out some winners. 

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens are surprisingly an underdog this week. The money is heavily favoring the Browns, but that seems weird to me. Sure, these two teams just played, and the Browns got a week of rest, but Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions against the Browns two weeks ago, and the Ravens still won.

Baker Mayfield's injury is severely limiting his ability to do much of anything. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will play, so that favors the Browns in the rushing department, but other than that, I just do not get it. Even though the Browns are at home this week., the Ravens are just a better team.

The Browns are 1-8 ATS against the AFC North during the Kevin Stefanski era, and the Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played in Cleveland. Losing Marlon Humphrey is a big blow to the Ravens' defense, but the Browns receiving core of Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and Donovan Peoples-Jones should not scare any defense.

As I am writing this, the Browns have a few players heading to the COVID-19 list, including David Njoku. As a Browns fan, I am telling you, this offense is just not good enough to outscore Jackson and the Ravens. Even if Jackson throws a billion interceptions again, taking the Ravens as a 2.5-point dog is a smart play.

Pick: Ravens +2.5 (-104)

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are in a bad spot right now, and losing this game would all but officially eliminate them from the playoffs. Carolina just fired Joe Brady, and that kind of tells me the Panthers have no real idea what they are doing.

Trading a second-round pick for Sam Darnold, trusting Cam Newton to be anything but a "specialist", and losing Christian McCaffrey for the season was not Brady's fault, but apparently, the Panthers needed someone to blame. They have had a week to game plan the offense without Brady, but with the state of this team at this point in the season, there is not a lot of hope.

The Falcons have a plus-point differential against non-playoff teams, so their 5-7 record has a pretty easy explanation. However, they obviously play up against bad teams, and right now, the Panthers are a bad team with no direction. The Falcons offense is not great, but it is explosive, and they will handle a team that is completely lost right now.

Pick: Falcons +2.5 (-114) 

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team

Dallas has struggled over the last couple of weeks, and the Football Team has won four games in a row. Dallas is still the better team, as they have an actual quarterback, but these two teams are going in opposite directions right now.

Over the last three weeks, Dallas is 1-2, and the reason for that is Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper have all missed time for various reasons. Even then, Dallas is still second in scoring, first in yards, fifth in yards per rush, and sixth in yards per pass. At full strength, the Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL.

On the other side, Washington's four-game winning streak includes victories over Las Vegas and Tampa Bay. The offense is scoring 22.5 points during the winning streak, but they are also barely holding on to win these games. That is only two points higher than their season average, and outside of Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson, this offense doesn't stand out to me.

I like Washington, and I like the direction that they are going. But with the Cowboys at full strength, and with the Cowboys on a 12-4 run ATS, we are rolling with the Boys.

Pick: Cowboys -4.5 (-106)

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have been pretty good on offense lately, but with Joe Burrow having a pinky injury, which is just the most obnoxious injury to deal with, the Bengals could be in some trouble here.

Also, the Bengals are dealing with a lot of injuries on defense, and they are having to dig deep into their linebacker room, so this could be a spot for George Kittle to feast, again. Against the Seahawks last week, Kittle racked up nine receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns.

San Francisco throws the ball only 29.8 times per game but going up against a banged-up defense, and a secondary that gives up 6.8 yards per pass and a completion percentage of 65%, Cincinnati might not have the horses on defense to keep this game close.

Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and the 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last seven road games. I think you know which way I am leaning here.

Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-112)

New York Giants at Los Angles Chargers

Let me start by saying that I was a big fan of Jake Fromm at Georgia, and coming into the draft. I did not think he would be a starter in this league, but he would become a solid backup that you could trust to win you a game or two. At the very minimum, he would keep you in most games because he doesn't make bad decisions.

But, against the Chargers... this might get rough.

Now, Joe Judge said that Mike Glennon could start this week, but either way, do you trust Glennon or Fromm to keep up with the Chargers? Even if Daniel Jones was playing, Saquon Barkley is banged-up, Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay are questionable, and Kadarius Toney is a game-time decision.

How are the Chargers not favored by a bazillion?

I like the Giants, and I think they are heading in the right direction as a team. However, the Chargers are 11th in points per play, 10th in scoring, and fifth in yards per play. I am taking the Chargers, and I would take them all the way to -13.5 this week.

If I gave out a "lock of the week" this would be it. 

Pick: Chargers -9.5 (-114)

Parlay: (+2442) 1 unit to win 24.4 units.

Photo: Getty Images