November 18, 2021

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons: 4 Best 'Thursday Night Football' Team, Props Bets

Week 11 of the NFL season opens tonight with a Super Bowl LI rematch as the New England Patriots will travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. This matchup is disappointing on paper, but on the board, it is shaping up to be a great night. 

As we do with every Thursday game, we will give out the three best props from the top sportsbooks in the country, as well as the best overall bet of the night. There are a lot of great bets on the board tonight, and I can guarantee that it is going to be a great gambling night. 

Before we get to the picks, we would like to remind you to always gamble responsibly. 

FanDuel: Hunter Henry Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Hunter Henry's targets are down in his first season with the Patriots, but that was expected when New England also brought in Jonnu Smith. However, Henry has quietly had a very effective season. 

Henry has gone over this total five times this season, and he is averaging 11.4 yards per reception. That means that we just need three receptions out of him tonight, and what do you know, he averages 3.1 receptions per game.

The Falcons have allowed the third-most yards to tight ends this season (817), and tight ends are averaging 29.2 receiving yards per game against the Falcons, which is the most in the NFL. 

The Falcons' defense has been quite awful this season, especially against the pass. Teams are completing a nice 69% of their passes and are gaining 7.1 yards per pass. Going against a Patriots offense that thrives on effectiveness and short routes plays well for Henry's receiving prop. 

Barstool: Matt Ryan Under 246.5 Passing Yards

I have no idea what the Falcons are going to do tonight without Cordarrelle Patterson. He is clearly their best offensive weapon as he leads the team in rushing, and is second in receiving yards behind just Kyle Pitts.

Does that mean they are going to pass the ball more? Well, that is what we thought the Browns would do against New England last week, and they held the Browns to 154 yards passing between both Case Keenum and Baker Mayfield. Although the Browns game may be an outlier just because nothing worked for Cleveland, New England has held teams to just 200.5 passing yards per game over their last four. 

While Matt Ryan has four 300+ yard games this season, he also has three sub-200 passing yard games. On the season, the Patriots are ranked third in opponents' pass completion, sixth in yards per pass, and eighth in passing yards per game. This defense has just been too sharp lately, so betting on Ryan to have a bad game is a safe play. 

DraftKings: Mike Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)

Through the first five weeks of the season, Mike Davis averaged 12.4 rushes per game. From Week 7 on, Davis has seen his production drop. He is now only averaging 6.5 carries per game and only 21.25 yards per game. 

He has only scored one rushing touchdown this season, but Davis will see his carries increase with Patterson likely to miss tonight's game. Last week against the Browns, the Patriots let D'Ernest Johnson run for 99 yards on 19 carries. This does not mean that the Patriots are a bad defense against the run, but there is a gap for teams to run on them. Over the last three games, teams are averaging 113.3 rushing yards per game. 

Again, only having two total touchdowns on the season for Davis is not great, but the Falcons are without their main threat on offense tonight, so everything is on the table. 

Bovada: Best Bet: Under 47 (-105) & Patriots -6.5 (-125)

Not only will the Falcons be missing Patterson tonight, but they will also be without Calvin Ridley again, and Hayden Hurst has been ruled out. That is just too many playmakers out of the lineup for me to feel comfortable about anything the Falcons do tonight. The only issue comes with how well the Patriots have been playing lately. 

Over the last four games, the Patriots are scoring 37.5 points per game, and they have held teams to just 12.5 points in those four games. Both teams are on an overs-streak, but with the Falcons missing a lot of production on offense, and with how the Patriots play a suffocating brand of football, I expect the Falcons to struggle tonight. 

If you want to hop on the spread, then buying half a point to get the number below a touchdown is the smart move. But, the official "best bet" is the under. 

Photo: Getty Images