December 27, 2021

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints: 4 Best 'Monday Night Football' Prop, Team Bets

Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up tonight as the red-hot Miami Dolphins will travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints. 

Coming into tonight, the Dolphins continue to climb back up the playoff rankings as they have won six-straight games. On the other side, the Saints have a lot of players out tonight for various reasons, and there is a new face taking the snaps for New Orleans. 

As we do every Monday night, we are back with the three best props of the night, as well as the best overall bet of the night. All you have to do is sit back, watch some football, and responsibly place some bets. 

Here are tonight's winners. 

FanDuel: Alvin Kamara OVER 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

The Saints are in some trouble tonight, and it is not just because the Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian are out and New Orleans is forced to turn to Ian Book to get his first career start. 

Book has not played a real game since his last game at Notre Dame when they lost to Alabama in the playoffs (still covered, though.) Usually, whenever you throw out a quarterback making his first start, the offense is simplified to reduce mistakes. Because of that, Alvin Kamara will see a lot of action in the passing game, which is not anything new for him and the Saints. 

Over his last five games, Kamara is averaging 47 yards receiving and 60 rushing yards. I will not do the simple math for you there, but even without Book, Kamara is hitting this number with ease. New Orleans is not going to let Book be the reason they lose this game, and having Kamara as a safety blanket is a privilege that not many rookie quarterbacks have. 

On the season, Kamara has hit this total seven times. Miami's defense is pretty good as a whole, but they are giving up 349.1 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush. There is no doubt that Kamara is going to get the necessary touches to hit this number tonight, and he should easily go over this total. 

Barstool: Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 33.5 Pass Attempts (-112)

The Dolphins have now won six straight, and part of that is thanks to the emergence of Tua Tagovailoa. The second game of the winning streak came against the Ravens, and although Tagovailoa did not start that game, he came in and was good enough to hold the lead. 

Since the winning streak started, Tagovailoa is averaging 29 passes per game. While the Saints' defense is 16th in yards per pass and 18th in passing yards per game, they are also sixth in opponents' pass completion percentage (62%).

With New Orleans down to their fourth quarterback on the season, Miami should not have to do much passing to stay in this game. I imagine the Dolphins will spin it to start the game, and then once they have a big enough lead, Miami will let off the gas, and just work the clock. New Orleans, as currently constructed, is not good enough to survive falling behind early. 

Draftkings Touchdown Scorer Of The Night: DeVante Parker (+260)

This game is not going to be a shootout, and touchdowns may be at a premium. However, the Dolphins are on fire right now, and with the Saints coming off a 9-0 win over Tampa Bay, this is the perfect letdown spot. 

The Saints' defense is fourth in opponents' touchdowns per game (2.1) and they are the best defense in red zone scoring percentage (44%). On the season, DeVante Parker only has two touchdowns, but one was last week, and ever since returning from injury, Parker has been very solid. 

In his two games back, Parker is averaging 6.5 targets and he is pulling in 4.5 catches for 65 yards. As I said earlier, the Dolphins should, and probably will look to put this game away early, and force Book and the Saints to try and play catch-up the entire game. Not only will this give Parker an excellent chance at catching a touchdown, but it also forces the Saints' defense to stay on the field, and have no opportunity to rest. 

Bovada Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5 (+100)

What is the catch here? 

Besides the Colts, the Dolphins are the hottest team in the NFL, their franchise quarterback is starting to play well, and they are facing a team that is playing a quarterback that has never taken an NFL snap. Miami only giving 3.5 tonight, at even odds, does not make a lot of sense to me. 

New Orleans is 17-8 under Sean Payton on Monday Night Football, but that was also with Drew Brees. I get that Miami is missing a couple of key contributors, but the Saints' unavailable list is about a mile long. The Saints have only covered once in their last five home games, and the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six.

Based on all of this, I can still get the Dolphins at -3.5 with +100 value? Uh, yeah, I will take that please, and thank you. 

Photo: Getty Images