NFL Betting Preview: New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers (2-0) are 3.0-point underdogs heading into their matchup on Sunday, September 27, 2020 against the New Orleans Saints (1-1). An over/under of 53.0 is set for the game.
Game InfoGame Day: Sunday, September 27, 2020 Game Time: 8:20 PM ET TV Channel: NBC Location: New Orleans, LA Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Saints Players to WatchLast year, Jameis Winston put up 5,109 passing yards (319.3 yards per game) while going 380-for-626 (60.7% completion percentage) and throwing 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in 16 games. He tacked on 250 rushing yards on 59 carries with one touchdown, averaging 15.6 yards per game. Alvin Kamara rushed for 797 yards on 171 carries (56.9 yards per game) while scoring five touchdowns in 14 games a season ago. He also averaged 38.1 receiving yards per game, grabbing 81 passes for 533 yards and one touchdown. In 2019, Latavius Murray ran for 637 yards on 146 carries (39.8 ypg), with five rushing touchdowns over the course of 16 games. Michael Thomas grabbed 149 passes for 1,725 yards last season and scored nine touchdowns. He was targeted 186 times and averaged 107.8 yards per game over 16 outings. Emmanuel Sanders contributed with 66 grabs for 869 yards and five touchdowns over the course of 17 games last year. He was targeted 96 times and averaged 51.1 receiving yards per game. Jared Cook caught 43 passes on 65 targets for 705 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 50.4 yards per game in 14 contests in 2019. Last season, Cameron Jordan put up 15.5 sacks, 16.0 TFL and 49 tackles in 16 games. Demario Davis' 2019 campaign saw him total 112 tackles, 10.0 TFL, four sacks, and one interception over 16 games. Marcus Williams intercepted four passes while adding 52 tackles and 13 passes defended over 15 games a season ago.
Packers Players to WatchAaron Rodgers threw for 4,002 yards while completing 62% of his passes (353-of-569), with 26 touchdowns and four interceptions in 16 games last year (250.1 yards per game). He also carried the ball 46 times for 183 yards and one touchdown, averaging 11.4 yards per game. Aaron Jones ran for 1,084 yards on 236 attempts (67.8 yards per game) while scoring 16 touchdowns in 16 games a season ago. He also averaged 29.6 receiving yards per game, grabbing 49 passes for 474 yards and three touchdowns. Jamaal Williams amassed 460 rushing yards on 107 carries (32.9 yards per game), with one touchdown on the ground over the course of 14 games in 2019. He also caught 39 passes for 253 (18.1 yards per game) and five touchdowns. In 12 games last season, Davante Adams was targeted 127 times and collected 83 catches for 997 yards (83.1 ypg) while scoring five touchdowns. Allen Lazard's statline last year showed 35 grabs for 477 yards and three touchdowns over 16 games. He averaged 29.8 receiving yards per game and was targeted 52 times. Jones caught 49 passes on 69 targets for 474 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 29.6 yards per game in 16 contests in 2019. Za'Darius Smith had a strong body of work a year ago, notching 13.5 sacks, 17.0 TFL and 57 tackles over 16 games. In 16 games over the course of his 2019 campaign, Adrian Amos collected 81 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions. Last season, Kevin King hauled in five interceptions and added 66 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and 15 passes defended in 15 games.
Saints vs Packers: Last 5 MeetingsAgainst Green Bay, New Orleans has collected three wins over the past five contests. New Orleans has outpaced Green Bay 182 points to 139 in the past five games.
Saints vs Packers: Last Five Meetings
When the Saints have the ball...The Saints put an average of 28.6 points per game on the scoreboard last season, nine more than the 19.6 the Packers surrendered in each contest. In games where New Orleans scored at least 28.6 points last season, they put together a record of 10-1. Green Bay was 8-0 last season in games where they allowed fewer than 19.6 points. The Packers defense gave up an average of 353.5 yards per game last season, 20.4 yards fewer than the 373.9-yard average from the Saints offense. In contests where the New Orleans offense totaled at least their average yard output last season, they were 8-1. Green Bay was 8-2 last season when their defense allowed fewer yards than their season average. The Packers allowed opposing rushing attacks to average 120.1 yards per game in 2019 compared to the 108.6 yards the Saints offense averaged on the ground per contest. When New Orleans rushers gained at least a combined 108.6 yards, they had a record of 9-1 last season. When Green Bay held opposing teams to 120.1 rushing yards or fewer they were 7-1 last year. The Saints turned the ball over 0.5 times per game last season, while the Packers averaged 1.6 takeaways per contest. New Orleans was 7-1 last season when they didn't turn the football over. Green Bay's record last season when they forced more than 1.6 turnovers: 7-0
When the Packers have the ball...Last year, the Packers scored just 2.2 more points per game (23.5) than the Saints allowed (21.3). Green Bay went 6-1 overall a season ago when the team put up at least 23.5 points. Last season, New Orleans had a 10-1 record in games when it held opponents to 28.6 or fewer points. In 2019, the Packers collected only 12.4 more yards per game (345.5), than the Saints allowed per contest (333.1). In contests where the New Orleans offense totaled at least their average yard output last season, they were 8-1. In games New Orleans kept its opponents to 333.1 or fewer yards last year, it put together a 7-1 record. Last season, the Packers averaged 112.2 yards per game on the ground, 20.8 more per game than the Saints allowed per contest (91.4). Last year, Green Bay put together an 8-1 record in games the team rushed for at least 112.2 yards. Last season, New Orleans finished 8-0 when holding opponents to no more than 91.4 rushing yards. The Packers turned the ball over 0.8 times per game last year, only 0.6 fewer turnovers per game than the 1.4 the Saints forced on average. Green Bay went 8-1 in 2019 when it turned the ball over 0.8 times or less. New Orleans put together a 5-0 record when it forced at least 1.4 turnovers last season.
Saints Fantasy LeadersWinston was the No. 6 fantasy player overall and the No. 5 fantasy quarterback in 2019 with 305.4 points (averaging 19.1 per game). Thomas put up total 225.6 fantasy points last season (14.1 per game), which made him the 26th-ranked player overall and the top-ranked wide receiver. Last year, Drew Brees' 224.8 total fantasy points made him the No. 27 fantasy player and No. 21 quarterback. He averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game. Kamara was the 51st-ranked fantasy player -- and the 16th-ranked running back -- in 2019 with 167.5 fantasy points. He averaged 12.0 fantasy points per game.
Packers Fantasy LeadersRodgers put together a solid 2019 fantasy season, scoring 278.4 total fantasy points (17.4 per game) to finish 10th overall and ninth among quarterbacks in the league-wide fantasy rankings. Jones collected 265.8 fantasy points (16.6 per game) last year to be the 14th-ranked player overall and the third-ranked running back. Adams was the No. 29 wide receiver and the No. 90 fantasy player overall with 129.7 total points last season (10.8 per game). Jamaal Williams' 2019 fantasy rankings saw him finish as the No. 112 player overall and the No. 36 running back after he put up 107.3 fantasy points (7.7 per game).
Saints vs Packers Betting Information
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Saints Betting InsightsNew Orleans had an 11-3 record against the spread last year. Last season, the Saints covered more games than they didn't when playing as 3.0-point or more favorites, finishing 7-2 ATS in those situations. In 2019, New Orleans' games went over the point total in seven out of 14 opportunities.
Saints Home TrendsNew Orleans' record against the spread in home games last year was 4-3, and its record at home overall was 6-2. Last season, the Saints finished 3-2 ATS in home games as at least a 3.0-point favorite. New Orleans hit the over just three times in eight opportunities at home last year (37.5%). Saints home games last season averaged 51.2 total points, 1.8 fewer than this matchup's over/under (53.0).
Packers Betting InsightsGreen Bay's games went under 53.0 points in eight out of 14 opportunities last season (57.1%). Green Bay went 8-6 against the spread last year. The Packers went 6-5 ATS last season when playing as 3.0-point or more underdogs.
Packers Road TrendsGreen Bay hit the over in just 37.5% of its away games last year (three of eight opportunities). The average total in Packers away games last season was 41 points, 12.0 fewer than this outing's over/under (53.0). Green Bay put together a 4-3 record against the spread on the road last year, and went 6-2 overall in away games. The Packers went 2-2 ATS in away games last season when playing as at least a 3.0-point underdog.
Additional InfoSix of New Orleans' games went over 53.0 points last season (37.5% of matchups). Last year, Green Bay played four games that ended with a point total higher than 53.0 (25% of matchups). The teams combined to score 52.1 points per game last season, 0.9 fewer points than this matchup's total. These two teams allowed a combined 40.9 points per game last year, 12.1 fewer points than the over/under for this contest. The average total in Saints contests last season was 49.9, 3.1 fewer points than this game's over/under. The average over/under for Packers outings last year was 43.1, 9.9 fewer points than this game's point total.
Trey Hendrickson: Questionable (Groin),
Michael Thomas: Out (Ankle),
David Onyemata: Questionable (Calf),
Ty Montgomery: Questionable (Hamstring),
Marcus Davenport: Questionable (Elbow),
Chase Hansen: Out (Hip)
Elgton Jenkins: Questionable (Back),
Kenny Clark: Questionable (Groin),
Darnell Savage Jr.: Questionable (Groin),
Randy Ramsey: Doubtful (Groin),
Josiah Deguara: Doubtful (Ankle),
Davante Adams: Doubtful (Hamstring)
Last Updated on 2020-9-27 2:48 a.m. EDT