NFL Betting Preview: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins (0-0) are touchdown underdogs in a home AFC East matchup with the New England Patriots (0-0) on Sunday, September 13, 2020 Gillette Stadium. The contest has an over/under of 41.5.
Game InfoGame Day: Sunday, September 13, 2020 Game Time: 1:00 PM TV Channel: CBS Location: Foxborough, MA Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Patriots Players to WatchLast year, Cam Newton recorded 572 passing yards (286.0 yards per game) while going 50-for-89 (56.2% completion percentage) and throwing zero touchdowns and one interception in two games. Sony Michel took 247 attempts for 914 rushing yards a season ago (57.1 yards per game) while scoring seven touchdowns in 16 games. Rex Burkhead amassed 302 rushing yards on 65 carries (23.2 yards per game), with three touchdowns on the ground over the course of 13 games in 2019. He also caught 27 passes for 279 yards (21.5 per game). Last season, Julian Edelman reeled in 100 passes (on 154 targets) for 1,117 yards (69.8 yards per game) with six touchdowns in 16 games. James White contributed with 645 yards on 72 catches with five touchdowns. He was targeted 95 times and averaged 43.0 receiving yards per game in 15 matchups last year. Damiere Byrd caught 32 passes on 46 targets for 359 yards and one touchdown, averaging 32.6 yards per game in 11 contests in 2019. Last season, Adam Butler put up 6.0 sacks, 8.0 TFL and 26 tackles in 16 games. In 16 games over his 2019 campaign, Lawrence Guy collected 61 tackles, 5.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception. Last season, Stephon Gilmore reeled in six interceptions and added 53 tackles and 20 passes defended in 16 games.
Dolphins Players to WatchRyan Fitzpatrick threw for 3,529 yards while completing 62% of his passes (311-of-502), with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 15 games last year (235.3 yards per game). He also carried the ball 55 times for 243 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 16.2 yards per game. Matt Breida took 123 attempts for 623 rushing yards a season ago (47.9 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown in 13 games. Jordan Howard totaled 525 rushing yards on 119 carries (52.5 yards per game), with six touchdowns on the ground over the course of 10 games in 2019. Last season, DeVante Parker grabbed 72 passes (on 128 targets) for 1,202 yards (75.1 yards per game) with nine touchdowns in 16 games. Mike Gesicki chipped in with 570 yards on 51 grabs with five touchdowns. He was targeted 89 times and put up 35.6 receiving yards per game over the course of 16 matchups last year. Over eight games in 2019, Preston Williams caught 32 passes on 60 targets for 428 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 53.5 receiving yards per game. Kyle Van Noy had a strong body of work a year ago, registering 6.5 sacks, 7.0 TFL and 55 tackles over 15 games. In 16 games over the course of his 2019 campaign, Jerome Baker collected 125 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception. Nik Needham intercepted two passes and tacked on 54 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and 11 passes defended in 12 games last season.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Last 5 MeetingsMiami has beaten New England three times in the past five matchups. Miami has put up 63 fewer points than New England in their past five contests.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Last Five Meetings
Patriots Team DataThe Patriots averaged 4.7 fewer points per game last season (26.2) than the Dolphins allowed (30.9). When they met or outpaced their scoring average last season, New England was 8-0. When the Miami defense allowed 30.9 points or fewer last year, the Dolphins pieced together a 3-4 record. The Patriots offense averaged 354.1 total yards per game last season, 43.8 yards fewer than the 397.9 allowed by the Dolphins defense. New England's record last season when they racked up at least their season average in total yards: 6-1. When the Miami defense allowed less than their season average for total yards last season they were 4-6. The Patriots averaged 106.6 yards per game on the ground last season, 28.9 yards fewer than the Dolphins allowed to opposing rushing attacks (135.5). New England was 5-2 last season when they ran for at least their season average. Last season, when the Miami defense allowed opponents to pick up less than 135.5 yards on the ground, they were 5-4. The Dolphins forced about the same amount of turnovers per game (1) as the Patriots offense committed (0.9). When New England didn't turn the football over last season they were 5-0. Miami's record last season when they forced more than 1 turnover: 5-6
Dolphins Team DataThe Dolphins scored 5.0 more points per game last year (19.1) than the Patriots gave up (14.1). Miami finished 4-5 in games when it put up at least 19.1 points last season. When New England allowed opponents to put up no more than 26.2 points last season, it compiled an 8-0 record. The Dolphins averaged 310 yards per game in 2019, 34.3 more yards than the 275.7 the Patriots allowed per matchup. When the New England offense put together a game with at least their 2019 average in yardage, they were 6-1 last season. New England had a 7-0 record last year when holding its opponents to 275.7 yards or less. Last season, the Dolphins averaged 72.2 rushing yards per game, 23.3 fewer per game than the Patriots allowed per contest (95.5). Miami had a 1-5 record when the team rushed for at least 72.2 yards last year. Last season, New England finished 7-3 when holding opponents to no more than 95.5 yards on the ground. The Dolphins turned the ball over 1.6 times per game last year, just 0.6 fewer turnovers per game than the 2.2 the Patriots forced on average. In games in 2019, Miami finished with a 4-5 record when it turned the ball over 1.6 times or less. New England compiled a 6-0 record when it forced at least 2.2 turnovers last season.
Patriots Fantasy LeadersEdelman was the No. 62 fantasy player overall and the No. 13 fantasy wide receiver in 2019 with 156.3 points (averaging 9.8 per game). Michel collected 140.8 fantasy points a season ago (8.8 per game), good enough to rank him 77th overall and 24th among running backs in league-wide fantasy standings. Last year, White's 128.2 total fantasy points made him the No. 92 fantasy player and No. 29 running back. He averaged 8.5 fantasy points per game. Burkhead was the 162nd-ranked fantasy player -- and the 49th-ranked running back -- in 2019 with 74.1 fantasy points. He averaged 5.7 fantasy points per game.
Dolphins Fantasy LeadersFitzpatrick's productive 2019 fantasy season gave him the No. 21 spot overall and the No. 17 spot among QBs. He racked up 241.5 fantasy points on the year (16.1 per game). Last year, Parker finished as the 47th-ranked fantasy player overall and the sixth-ranked wide receiver. He put up 174.2 fantasy points, averaging 10.9 per game. Howard was the No. 38 running back and the No. 119 fantasy player overall with 101.4 total points last season (10.1 per game). Gesicki's 2019 fantasy rankings saw him finish as the No. 138 player overall and the No. 11 tight end after he scored 85.0 fantasy points (5.3 per game).
Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Information
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Patriots Betting InsightsLast year, New England assembled a 6-7-1 record against the spread. Last season, the Patriots went 5-3-1 ATS when favored by 7.0 points or more. Last year, New England's games went below the point total in seven out of 14 opportunities (50%).
Patriots Home TrendsNew England put together just a 2-4-1 record against the spread at home last year, and went 6-2 overall in home games. Last season, the Patriots finished an even 2-2-1 ATS in home games as at least a 7.0-point favorite. New England hit the over four times in eight opportunities at home last year (50%). Last season, Patriots home games averaged 40.2 points, 1.3 fewer than this contest's over/under (41.5).
Dolphins Betting InsightsMost of Miami's games with a betting line last year -- eight out of 14 opportunities -- went over the point total (57.1%) Miami had a 9-5 record against the spread last year.
Dolphins Road TrendsMiami hit the over in just four out of eight home games last year with a point total prop bet. Dolphins away games last season averaged 46.6 total points, 5.1 more than this matchup's over/under (41.5). Miami finished 5-3 against the spread in away games last year, and went 2-6 overall on the road.
Additional InfoSix of New England's games went over 41.5 points last season (37.5% of matchups). Last year, Miami played nine games that ended with a combined score higher than 41.5 (56.2% of matchups). The two teams combined to score 45.3 points per game last season, 3.8 more points than the over/under for this matchup. These teams allowed a combined 45 points per game last year, 3.5 more points than the over/under for this matchup. The average point total in Patriots contests last season was 40.3, 1.2 fewer points than this game's over/under. Dolphins outings last year had a 50-point average over/under, 8.5 more points than this game's total.
Chase Winovich: Questionable (Shoulder),
N'Keal Harry: Questionable (Shoulder),
Jonathan Jones: Questionable (Foot),
Yodny Cajuste: Out (Knee),
Dalton Keene: Questionable (Neck),
Cassh Maluia: Questionable (Knee),
Gunner Olszewski: Out (Foot)
Clayton Fejedelem: Doubtful (Pectoral)