NFL Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills (1-0) visit the Miami Dolphins (0-1) on Sunday, September 20, 2020 in matchup between AFC East rivals at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami is a 3.0-point underdog. The game has an over/under of 43.0.
Game InfoGame Day: Sunday, September 20, 2020 Game Time: 1:00 PM ET TV Channel: CBS Location: Miami Gardens, FL Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
Bills Players to WatchJosh Allen threw for 3,089 yards while completing 58.8% of his passes (271-of-461), with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 16 games last year (193.1 yards per game). He also carried the ball 109 times for 510 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 31.9 yards per game. Devin Singletary rushed for 775 yards on 151 carries (64.6 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns in 12 games a season ago. He also averaged 16.2 receiving yards per game, grabbing 29 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Last season, Stefon Diggs grabbed 63 passes (on 93 targets) for 1,129 yards (75.3 yards per game) while scoring six touchdowns in 15 games. John Brown also tacked on 1,060 yards on 72 catches with six touchdowns. He was targeted 115 times and put up 70.7 receiving yards per game in 15 matchups last year. Over 15 games in 2019, Cole Beasley caught 67 passes on 106 targets for 778 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 51.9 receiving yards per game. Mario Addison boasted an impressive statline of 9.5 sacks, 6.0 TFL and 34 tackles over 15 games. Tremaine Edmunds racked up 117 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 16 games over his 2019 campaign. Last season, Tre'Davious White reeled in six interceptions and added 57 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and 16 passes defended in 15 games.
Dolphins Players to WatchRyan Fitzpatrick collected 3,529 passing yards (235.3 yards per game) with a 62% completion percentage last year (311-of-502), while throwing 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 15 games. He also added 243 rushing yards on 55 carries with four touchdowns, averaging 16.2 yards per game. Matt Breida took 123 attempts for 623 rushing yards a season ago (47.9 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown in 13 games. DeVante Parker reeled in 72 passes for 1,202 yards last season and scored nine touchdowns. He was targeted 128 times and averaged 75.1 yards per game over 16 outings. Mike Gesicki contributed with 570 yards on 51 catches with five touchdowns. He was targeted 89 times and put up 35.6 receiving yards per game in 16 matchups last year. Preston Williams caught 32 passes on 60 targets for 428 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 53.5 yards per game in eight contests in 2019. Last season, Kyle Van Noy racked up 6.5 sacks, 7.0 TFL and 55 tackles in 15 games. In 16 games over the course of his 2019 campaign, Jerome Baker racked up 125 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception. Nik Needham picked off two passes and tacked on 54 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and 11 passes defended in 12 games last season.
Bills vs Dolphins: Last 5 MeetingsIn the past five meetings, Buffalo owns a 4-1 record against Miami. Miami has put up 54 fewer points than Buffalo in their past five contests.
Bills vs Dolphins: Last Five Meetings
When the Bills have the ball...The Bills averaged 11.3 fewer points per game last season (19.6) than the Dolphins allowed (30.9). When they met or went over their scoring average last season, Buffalo was 7-0. Miami was 3-4 last season in games where they allowed fewer than 30.9 points. The Bills offense racked up 67.7 fewer yards than the Dolphins defense surrendered last season (330.2 to 397.9). When the Buffalo offense put together a game with at least their 2019 average in yardage, they were 6-2 last season. Miami was 4-6 last season when their defense allowed fewer yards than their season average. The Bills averaged 128.4 yards per game on the ground last season, just 7.1 yards fewer than the Dolphins allowed to opposing rushing attacks (135.5). When Buffalo rushers gained at least a combined 128.4 yards, they had a record of 5-1 last season. Last season, when the Miami defense allowed opponents to pick up less than 135.5 yards on the ground, they were 5-4. Last season, the Dolphins forced an average of 1 turnover per game compared to the 1.2 times Bills turned the football over in each contest. When Buffalo turned the football over 1.2 times or fewer last season they were 7-4. Miami was 5-6 last season when they forced at least 1 turnover in a game.
When the Dolphins have the ball...The Dolphins averaged just 2.9 more points per game last year (19.1) than the Bills surrendered (16.2). Miami finished 4-5 overall a season ago when the team recorded at least 19.1 points. When Buffalo allowed opponents to score no more than 19.6 points last season, it compiled a 7-0 record. The Dolphins averaged 310 yards per game in 2019, just 11.8 more than the 298.2 the Bills allowed per matchup. When the Buffalo offense put together a game with at least their 2019 average in yardage, they were 6-2 last season. Buffalo put together a 5-3 record last year when holding its opponents to 298.2 yards or less. Last season, the Dolphins rushed for 30.9 fewer yards per game (72.2) than the Bills allowed per contest (103.1). Miami compiled a 1-5 record when the team rushed for at least 72.2 yards last year. Last season, Buffalo finished 7-2 when holding opponents to no more than 103.1 yards on the ground. The Dolphins turned the ball over 1.6 times per game last year, only 0.2 more turnovers per game than the 1.4 the Bills forced on average. In 2019, Miami finished 4-5 when it turned the ball over 1.6 times or less. Buffalo put together a 5-0 record when it forced at least 1.4 turnovers last season.
Bills Fantasy LeadersAllen finished seventh overall among all players and sixth among all QBs in 2019 with 288.6 fantasy points (18.0 per game). Diggs collected 149.0 fantasy points a season ago (9.9 per game), enough to place him 68th overall and 18th among wide receivers in league-wide fantasy standings. Last year, Brown's 147.8 total fantasy points made him the No. 70 fantasy player and No. 19 wide receiver. He averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game. Singletary put together the 100th-ranked fantasy season (31st among running backs) in 2019 with 118.9 fantasy points, averaging 9.9 per game.
Dolphins Fantasy LeadersFitzpatrick's productive 2019 fantasy season earned him the No. 21 spot overall and the No. 17 spot among QBs. He racked up 241.5 fantasy points on the year (16.1 per game). Last year, Parker finished as the 47th-ranked fantasy player overall and the sixth-ranked wide receiver. He put up 174.2 fantasy points, averaging 10.9 per game. Jordan Howard was the 38th-best running back and the 119th-best fantasy player overall with 101.4 fantasy points last season, averaging 10.1 per game. Gesicki's 2019 fantasy rankings saw him finish as the No. 138 player overall and the No. 11 tight end after he scored 85.0 fantasy points (5.3 per game).
Bills vs Dolphins Betting Information
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Bills Betting InsightsIn 2019, Buffalo played in only four games that went over the point total (28.6% of its opportunities). Buffalo had a 7-5-2 record against the spread last year. Last season, the Bills covered more games than they didn't when playing as 3.0-point or more favorites, finishing 3-2 ATS in those situations.
Bills Road TrendsBuffalo finished with a 4-0-2 record against the spread on the road last year, and went 6-2 overall in away games. The Bills had a 1-0 ATS record when favored by at least 3.0 points in away games last season. Buffalo hit the over in just two out of eight home games last year with a point total prop bet (25%). Bills away games last season averaged 37.1 total points, 5.9 fewer than this outing's over/under (43.0).
Dolphins Betting InsightsMiami went 9-5 against the spread last year. Most of Miami's games with a betting line last year -- eight out of 14 opportunities -- went over the point total (57.1%)
Dolphins Home TrendsMiami compiled a 4-2 record against the spread at home last year, and went 3-5 overall in home games. Miami hit the over four times in eight opportunities at home last year (50%). Dolphins home games last season averaged 53.4 total points, 10.4 more than this outing's over/under (43.0).
Additional InfoThe Bills had an average total of 35.8 in their contests last season, 7.2 fewer points than this game's over/under. Dolphins contests last year had a 50-point average over/under, 7.0 more points than this game's point total. Last season, Buffalo played in three games that ended with a point total higher than 43.0 (18.8% of matchups). Miami's games went over 43.0 points nine times last year (56.2% of matchups). The teams combined to score 38.7 points per contest last season, 4.3 fewer points than this game's total. These two teams surrendered a combined 47.1 points per game last year, 4.1 more points than the over/under for this matchup.
Del'Shawn Phillips: Out (Quadricep),
Matt Milano: Out (Hamstring),
Tremaine Edmunds: Out (Shoulder)
DeVante Parker: Questionable (Hamstring),
Elandon Roberts: Out (Concussion),
Clayton Fejedelem: Doubtful (Pectoral)
Last Updated on 2020-9-20 2:16 a.m. EDT