Who is ready to get rich? I know I am. The board is looking great for Week 9 of the NFL season, and there are a lot of road dogs that have some serious value. It was a poor week for me last week, but I am really confident in my five best bets this week.
I have done all the hard work. All you need to do is responsibly place some bets and watch some football. Doesn't that sound like a fun time? Anyway, enough of the boring introduction. Let's get into the picks.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
With Jameis Winston done for the year with an ACL injury, the Saints are in some trouble. New Orleans announced that Trevor Siemian will be the starter moving forward, but can you really rely on him to win you some games?
Winston did well enough and has an excellent supporting cast, but Winston is just not a good quarterback, and neither are their backups. It remains to be seen if Taysom Hill will become the starter when he returns from injury, but even then, the Saints are almost a non-threat on offense for the remainder of the season.
At first glance, the Falcons were the obvious play given the Saints' offensive troubles. However, the Falcons are without Calvin Ridley for an undisclosed amount of time, and the Falcons were held to only 13 points against the Panthers last week. Despite last week's brutal performance against Carolina, Atlanta is averaging 25 points per game over their last four games.
They are 2-2 in that span, but the offense is playing a lot better as of late. The Saints are the better team, but the Falcons should cover pretty easily.
Pick: Falcons +6 (-110)
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
This spread is a little questionable given the Panthers quarterback situation. Sam Darnold has been awful lately, and now the Panthers are getting the itch to throw in P.J. Walker. After a hot start on defense, the Panthers are allowing 24.6 points per game, and the Patriots are scoring 30.4 points per game in that same span.
Although New England is 0-5 ATS in their last five matchups against Carolina, these two teams are going in different directions right now. The Patriots are starting to wake up on offense under Mac Jones, and the Panthers are just falling apart on both sides of the ball.
Even though this game will be played in Carolina, the Patriots should pick apart this team, and easily cover the spread.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants
The Raiders are going to be shorthanded for obvious reasons, but there is still some real value with their line this week. Despite everything that has happened to the Raiders this season, Las Vegas sits at 5-2 and holds a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West.
The Raiders have played fairly well on the road this season as they are 2-1 away from home and are scoring 24.6 points per game on the road. That may be a small sample size, but at the same time, the Giants are 1-3 at home and are scoring only 15.7 points per home game.
It seems like the Raiders are hitting their stride, and they have covered in five of their last six games in November. We will back the road dog in this one.
Pick: Raiders -3.5 (-108)
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Currently, the Chiefs sit as a touchdown-favorite over the Packers, and you need to jump on this number immediately. With Aaron Rodgers out due to a positive COVID-19 test, the Packers will be sending out Jordan Love to get his first career start in the NFL.
I do get a little scared when betting against a quarterback making his first start because we just do not have any tape of him. However, the Chiefs offense is a threat to go off at any point in a game. The Chiefs are 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games, but that is just what happens when you have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
The spread has been inflated with the Chiefs for a few years now due to their offense being awesome, but this season, they just can't get it rolling. Part of that is on the defense, but the Chiefs' are still 10th in scoring, fourth in yards per game, and ninth in yards per play. Their stats look fine, but something is just off.
However, without Rodgers, I do not trust this offense enough to move the ball. Even though the Chiefs' defense is horrible, I am riding with the Chiefs all the way up to 9.5 points.
Pick: Chiefs -7 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Chargers were rolling to start the season, and they looked like serious Super Bowl contenders. After two bad losses against the Ravens and the Patriots, the Chargers are now in a "are they actually for real?" mode right now. Coming into this game at 4-3, and with the Raiders and Chiefs looking much better entering this week, Los Angeles has no time to fumble around. They have to beat the Eagles this week.
Not only has the Chargers' recent two-game slide affected the spread, but the Eagles' 38-point ass-kicking of the Lions last week also has the line favoring the Eagles. This plays well for us as the Chargers are just the better team in this matchup.
The Chargers also have the advantage of having Justin Herbert on their team. Although the Eagles have been solid against the pass according to their numbers, they have gotten torched against every good-passing attack they have faced. Against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Raiders, the Eagles have given up 284 passing yards per game and three touchdowns per game.
I just do not buy that the Eagles can slow down this offense, so we will roll with the Chargers in this one.
Pick: Chargers -1.5 (-110)
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