Happy Thanksgiving to all of those who celebrate. Not only is it a day to be thankful, but it is also a day to watch, and bet on some football. I hope your day is filled with good food, good times, and a lot of cashed bets.
let's get straight into the picks. While you are enjoying food, family, and football, we ask that you remember to always gamble responsibly. let's have ourselves a day.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
The Bears are in a terrible spot as a team. First of all, Matt Nagy will inevitably be fired, and secondly, Justin Fields is getting killed out there, and he will be forced to miss this game because his offensive line giving him just nothing.
Instead of showing off their rookie quarterback on a national stage, the Bears will have to turn to Andy Dalton with Fields set to miss a few games with a rib injury. However, the Bears have dismantled the Lions lately, which is not really hard to do at this point. Over the last seven matchups between the Bears and Lions, Chicago is 5-2 ATS and 6-1 straight up.
While the Lions are 4-2 ATS over their last six games and 6-4 ATS over this season, a large reason for that is the spread is so high in these games. On average, The Lions are catching 8.4 points per game, and they are 4-1 ATS this season when the line is over that 8.4 number. Detroit makes every game they play ugly because that is the identity of head coach Dan Campbell.
The problem is there is just no threat on offense at this point. With the spread being a little low, I am riding with the Bears to cover.
Pick: Bears -3 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
The Raiders have been, and I cannot stress this enough, absolutely TERRIBLE on the road, not just this season, but spanning back a few seasons. The Raiders have only won 45 of their last 150 road games. You cannot win only 30% of your road games spanning almost a decade, it just cannot happen.
This season has taken a massive 180 with the Raiders losing three straight games, and they are starting to fade out of the playoff race. The good news for Las Vegas is that Dallas will be without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb for this game. The bad news is that Dak Prescott is still on the team, and the defense is allowing only 16 points per game over the last four games.
The Cowboys have been a covering machine this season, and they will keep that train rolling against a team that is starting to fade out of relevancy in 2021.
Pick: Cowboys -7.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints
When doing my research for this game, I tried my hardest to find a nice angle for the Saints not just for this game, but for the rest of the season.
I came up with nothing.
Trevor Siemian is good enough to not completely screw up the team, but he is not good enough to keep you competitive against the contenders. In a perfect world, the Saints would be able to rely on Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas to be able to make up for bad quarterback play. But, neither will play in this game, and the Saints are in big trouble.
I just do not envision a scenario where Josh Allen loses to Siemian. Also, Buffalo is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20, and the Bills have covered in their last seven games against NFC teams.
The Saints' numbers ATS look pretty because Drew Brees existed. While he very much still exists, he does not play for the Saints anymore. I am going to ride with Bills on the spread, especially considering that it is currently under a touchdown.
Pick: Bills -6 (-110)
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