October 21, 2021

Corrigan's Gambling Corner: NFL Week 7 Best Bets

It is time for Week 7 of the NFL season and that means it is time for some more favorite bets. As we are now well into the football season, we have a much clearer picture of what teams are good or bad. We also understand who are the good teams to bet on.

The NFL is always tricky to bet on because you just don't know what will happen. The Lions may beat the Rams by 20 this week, whos to say they won't? Well, that may be wishful thinking for Detroit fans because, as the lone winless team in the NFL, there is no hope. 

As always, please remember to gamble responsibly.

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Falcons (-2.5) at Dolphins

The Dolphins suffered a season-deflating loss to the lowly Jaguars in London last week. Now, 1-5 and having to travel back from London without a bye week, the 'Fins are at a serious disadvantage. 

Both teams are very poor on offense but there is a clear advantage on defense for the Falcons. The Dolphins' defense is 29th in scoring, passing yards, and the number of plays. Miami is also 22nd in rushing yards allowed, 25th in yards per play, and 30th in the amount of time spent on the field. The Falcons defense is not much better, but there is a lot more promise on the Atlanta defense.

Both teams have been awful all year long, but last week's loss for the Dolphins was an absolute backbreaker and the Falcons have a real chance to take advantage of a broken team.

Plus, the Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Dolphins.

Jets at Patriots (-7)

The Patriots' offense played its best game of the season last week against the Cowboys. However, the defense did not slow down the best offense in the NFL as they lost in overtime. Mac Jones looked sharp with 229 yards passing and two touchdowns and against the Jets, a team that the Patriots already demolished this year, should we expect anything different?

The Jets' defense is ranked 22nd in yards allowed (372.8), 17th in passing yards allowed (249.4), and they are allowing quarterbacks to complete 69.2% of their passes. The defense against the run is only allowing 4.0 yards per rush but teams are running for over 123 yards per game. The Patriots need to stick with their game plan in this game and just have Jones manage the game, much like he did in the first meeting this season between these two teams when Jones threw for only 186 yards and no touchdowns.

The Jets and Zach Wilson have gotten better since that game, but are they good enough to score on the Patriots' defense? The Patriots should win this one easily at home.

Texans (+17.5) vs Cardinals

This is just an ugly game and the line is just disgusting to look at.

You may think that taking a team to cover against the only undefeated team in the NFL when the Texans just got run-over by the Colts 31-3 is a mistake, but 17.5 is just too many points to ignore. Seventeen-point spreads are uncommon and we have seen the Texans play a few teams tough this season.

It will probably take a late backdoor cover when the Cardinals rest the starters, but I am willing to bet against the Cardinals, who are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. It is hard to look at the Texans' numbers ATS because they are so bad that the numbers are going to be inflated. Bigger lines mean more of a chance to cover. That is what I am expecting in this game as the Cardinals win by at least two scores, but they do not cover.

Eagles at Raiders: UNDER 49

Coming off a dominant performance, the Raiders defense — especially Maxx Crosby — looked primed to stop a clunky Eagles offense that relies too much on chunk plays. 

This game is going to come down to what breaks down first, the Eagles ground game or the Raiders' passing attack. The Eagles rushing game ranks No. 3 in DVOA and they are picking up over five yards per carry. The only problem is, the Eagles don't run the ball.  The Las Vegas defense is allowing over 130 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush.

In this game, against a poor Raiders defense against the run, the Eagles should and will make it a priority to commit to the run. This is the perfect recipe for the under.

Washington Football Team at Packers (-8)

One team has Aaron Rodgers and the other team has Taylor Heinicke. Which team would you choose to bet on?

The Washington Football team came into this season with a lot of promise thanks to their defense, and more specifically, the front seven. While Chase Young was expected to make the leap to superstardom this season, he's been disappointing along with the rest of the Football Team's defense.

Ron Rivera's defense ranks 32nd in points allowed per game, 31st in yards allowed per game, 24 in yards allowed per play, and 30th in opponents' touchdowns per game. The numbers against the pass are just as bad. They are allowing 309 passing yards per game, 7.7 yards per pass, and they are only sacking the quarterback on 4.72% of pass plays.

While the Packers' offense isn't as explosive as it used to be, with Rodgers playing more in control and taking what the defense gives him, Green Bay should have no problem winning easily over WFT. 

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